Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors 11/24/2025
The West gets the late-night spotlight as the Utah Jazz visit the Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET inside Chase Center. From a betting lens, both teams come in with plenty to unpack. The Warriors are .500 overall but have been steady at home (5-1), while Utah’s rebuild has shown flashes but has struggled to carry momentum on the road (1-6 away). In a Western Conference that punishes inconsistency, Golden State’s home form, pace, and shot quality have generally traveled better than Utah’s young core when the Jazz leave Salt Lake City.
That matters when you’re weighing moneyline safety against market prices, sizing up a rich spread, and looking for value in totals. Steve Kerr’s team typically leans into ball movement and shot-making at Chase Center, which historically amplifies their offensive ceiling. Utah, meanwhile, can score in bunches but has been giving up more than it gets on average—especially away from home. That push-pull dynamic shapes this handicap in an important way for anyone looking to get involved pre-tip.
Wonder which matchup the books are most confident about tonight? A quick scan of the NBA betting odds answers that instantly.
Our betting predictions for Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors
Main Tip: Total points Over 238.5
Our primary betting predictions: Total points Over 238.5 at -120 at Caesars Sportsbook: My model makes the Over 238.5 about a 57% proposition, given Golden State’s elevated home scoring rate and Utah’s willingness to trade pace. The Warriors’ home average sits around the low 120s per game, and Utah’s overall games are trending above league median in total output. The Jazz have struggled to suppress opponent efficiency on the road, and Golden State’s spacing typically creates clean looks in this building. Tip: Over 238.5 at -120 with Caesars.
Comparing your options? Start with our Caesars Sportsbook review — a full look at promos, betting menus, and overall performance.
Tip 2: Spread – Warriors -13.5
Our second betting tip – Spread: Warriors -13.5 at -110 with Caesars: It’s a big number, but the matchup leans toward avalanche potential if Utah’s turnovers climb or their transition defense slips. I project Golden State to cover this spread about 51% of the time (fair around -104) based on their home splits and Utah’s road profile. If the Warriors jump early, their bench units can sustain a margin because of shooting depth and familiarity with the system under Steve Kerr. Tip: Warriors -13.5 at -110.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Warriors ML
Our final betting prediction – Moneyline: Warriors at best odds with DraftKings: This is the safest leg, but not a price many bettors will want to play straight. I give Golden State roughly a 74% win probability, while the market is pricing a near “no-sweat” outcome. Pair it in parlays only if your risk tolerance is comfortable with heavy favorites, or anchor it to mitigate variance on a same-game approach. Tip: Warriors ML at DraftKings.
Team Statistics: Where the West tests your mettle
Golden State Warriors (Western Conference): The Warriors sit in the West mix at 9-9 overall, tracking firmly in the playoff race out West rather than any all-conference table. At Chase Center, they’ve banked a 5-1 home mark, and their offense has played up in front of the home crowd—averaging about 120.2 points per game in their own building while conceding roughly 107.5 on average at home. On the full slate, Golden State’s season scoring average sits around 114.8 points per game, with about 114.9 allowed per game across their 18 contests. That split tells you they’ve been in tight margins overall, but the home tilt remains meaningful. Their recent form is middling (2-3 over their last five), but the underlying numbers suggest the shot quality is there; it’s the intermittent late-game execution that has swung a couple of coin flips. Given their Western Conference reality, they’re jockeying for top-eight positioning and aiming to stack home wins now to make road swings less punishing later.
Utah Jazz (Western Conference): The Jazz are at 5-11 overall with a strong home split but just 1-6 on the road, a classic young-team profile in a deep West. Utah’s season-long averages point toward high-variance outcomes: roughly 118.1 points scored per game and about 125.0 allowed per game across their first 16 matchups. That defensive number is the concern in this spot, particularly against a Warriors team that trends more efficient at home. Utah’s last five show a 1-4 slide, with a couple of close calls but not enough control in fourth quarters to tilt outcomes their way. They remain in the Western Conference chase, but outside the top tier, and they’ll need cleaner road execution—fewer empty possessions, stronger defensive glass—to spring an upset here. The Jazz can score, but the question is whether they can string together stops at Chase Center.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Stephen Curry continues to set the tone for Golden State’s offense, sitting in the high-20s in points per game on the season with off-ball gravity that frees up teammates. Under head coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors’ spacing and ball movement generate high-value threes and cuts.
- For Utah, Lauri Markkanen has been carrying an All-Star scoring load in the low 30s per game on average, and rookie guard Keyonte George provides creation juice with an assist average north of seven per game.
- Monitor pregame injury reports for Golden State’s frontcourt depth and for any late scratches on Utah’s side; availability could shift the spread.
- Pace leans to the Over: Golden State’s home offense plus Utah’s up-tempo tendencies create a friendlier environment for a rising total.
Last direct match
Utah edged the most recent head-to-head in a one-possession finish on their home floor, decided by a narrow three-point margin—another reminder that these matchups can swing late.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Warriors: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Jazz: 1 win, 4 losses
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re backing the Warriors in multiple ways because the matchup points in the same direction: Golden State’s home form and offensive rhythm, combined with Utah’s road splits and defensive numbers, produce a favorable environment for a comfortable Warriors win and an elevated scoring pace. The spread play leans on Golden State’s robust home differential and Utah’s away struggles to keep up for four quarters. The Over relies on tempo, Warriors shot volume at home, and Utah’s turnover risk, contributing to quick points. The moneyline is as straightforward as it gets—Golden State to take care of business at Chase Center. Put it together, and the pathway is clear: Warriors -13.5, Over 238.5, and Warriors ML. Manage your exposure, monitor late injury news—especially anything related to Draymond Green—and trust the home court edge to carry Golden State through Monday night.
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