Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers 12/27/2025
Saturday night football in December at Lambeau Field? That’s a vibe all by itself. We’ve got Baltimore at Green Bay in Week 17, with playoff urgency cranked up and temperatures trending down. The betting angle matters here: Green Bay has been the steadier outfit lately, and Lambeau in late December under Matt LaFleur often tightens games and leans toward physical, field-position football. Baltimore, fresh off a late home loss to New England, is in win-and-hope mode, while the Packers just took a tough OT loss in Chicago but still control a clear path to January.
Market-wise, Green Bay is a slight home favorite, and the total has been bet down into the low 40s. That tracks with the storylines: Jordan Love’s status has been monitored during the week, and Lamar Jackson’s back contusion heading into the weekend is the headline for Baltimore. Expect a lean toward defense, ground games, and special teams, setting up short fields. Let’s break down where the value sits.
Big divisional games deserve deeper analysis. The latest NFL betting odds reveal where the market is leaning.
Our betting predictions: Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Best Bet: Totals – Under 41.0 Points
1) Under 41.0 points at -125 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Explanation: Both teams are trending toward a lower-variance script. Over 15 games, Green Bay has averaged about 24.3 points per game and allowed 20.2, while Baltimore has averaged about 23.9 and allowed 23.2. In December at Lambeau, with potential QB limitations and the cold compressing explosive plays, the game flow projects conservative. My model makes this total around 39.5, and I give the Under about a 59% chance to cash. Getting -125 at Fanatics provides real value.
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Tip 2: Spread – Packers -2.5
3) Packers -2.5 at -115 with Fanatics. Explanation: Under LaFleur, Green Bay has typically handled situational football well at home in December. Green Bay’s defense has quietly allowed around 20.2 per game across the season, and the Packers own a 5-2 home record this year. Baltimore is 2-3 over its last five and just took a narrow loss at home. If the Ravens are less than full-go at quarterback, that’s a material downgrade. I make Green Bay -3.5 on the number, with a 55% probability the Packers cover. That’s a fair price, so -115 is playable.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Packers to Win
3) Moneyline: Packers to win (BetMGM Sportsbook best price). Explanation: Straight-up, I project Green Bay at about 62% to win, implying a fair moneyline near -163. That’s consistent with market shading and the Lambeau factor. Baltimore is game, but situationally, the Packers’ home edge and defensive consistency tip the balance. If you prefer the underdog, the best available plus price is Baltimore, which sits at BetMGM, which implies roughly a 41% chance—my number is lower than that, so I’d stay with the home side.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Green Bay Packers (NFC North, Coach: Matt LaFleur): The Packers enter at 9-5-1 with a winning-rate a shade above 60% and a 5-2 home mark. In terms of scoring profile, they’ve posted about 24.3 points per game while allowing about 20.2—solid balance and the kind of defensive baseline that travels well into late-season football. Their last five show 3 wins and 2 losses, with the most recent being a gritty 16-22 overtime loss at Chicago. Against the spread, they’re 6-9 this season, but context matters: late-season Packers typically squeeze opponents at Lambeau and win the field-position war. Green Bay’s home defense has been stingy this year, and LaFleur’s in-game management—particularly on fourth down and situational tempo—has often been the difference in one-score games. In the NFC North hunt, they’re trying to close strong and secure January football without needing help.
Baltimore Ravens (AFC North, Coach: John Harbaugh): Baltimore sits at 7-8, roughly a 47% winning rate, and is 2-3 over its last five, coming off a 24-28 home loss to New England. The Ravens’ scoring profile is close to neutral: about 23.9 points per game on offense and 23.2 allowed on defense. That defensive number is a touch higher than we’re used to seeing from Baltimore, and some of that is situational—short fields, injuries at key moments—and some is simply the grind of a long season. Their road form is competitive (notably 4-2 away), but Lambeau in late December is a different kind of environment. On the betting front, Baltimore’s 5-10 record against the spread reflects an up-and-down team that hasn’t consistently aligned with market expectations. In the AFC North, they’re chasing and need to stack wins alongside help elsewhere to get where they want to go.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Health at quarterback is the story. Reports have Lamar Jackson managing a back contusion; if he starts, his 2024 baseline suggests about 245 passing yards per game with roughly 1.1 passing touchdowns per game and low turnover risk. If he can’t go or is limited, Tyler Huntley’s efficiency drops the explosive ceiling. On the other side, Jordan Love’s status was monitored through the week; his 2024 baseline was around 226 passing yards per game with about 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. Weather matters, too—December at Lambeau typically favors defense and ball control. Special teams and hidden yardage could swing this one. Coaching tilt at home also favors Matt LaFleur, whose teams often play clean late-season football in Green Bay. Net impact: nudges toward Green Bay and the Under.
Last direct match
The last head-to-head went Green Bay’s way at Lambeau, 30-7. Different season, similar setting—Packers had the situational edge then and have it again now.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Green Bay: 3 wins, 2 losses, most recently a 16-22 OT loss at Chicago.
- Baltimore: 2 wins, 3 losses, most recently a 24-28 home loss to New England.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into three angles that all rhyme with the environment and the injury context. First, under 41.0 is the headline play: cold-weather Lambeau, QB health watch, and both teams’ season-long scoring profiles support a lower total. Second, Packers -2.5 aligns with Green Bay’s December home edge and a defense allowing about 20.2 per game; it doesn’t take a blowout—just a clean, one-score home win. Third, Packers moneyline (BetMGM Sportsbook) tracks with a roughly 62% win probability for Green Bay. If you want Baltimore exposure, +145 is the best available away number, but our projection doesn’t make that side value.
Bottom line: This shapes up as a Lambeau script—field position, patience, and a handful of pivotal third downs. In that setting, Green Bay’s steadier profile and coaching at home carry the forecast, and the clock is our friend on the total. Our card: Under 41.0, Packers -2.5, Packers ML.
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