Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars 01/11/2026
Two AFC contenders meeting on Wild Card Weekend in Jacksonville? That’s the kind of January football the calendar is built for. The Jaguars, under first-year head coach Liam Coen, have been red hot, ripping off wins with an explosive offense and a sturdy run defense at home. The Bills bring the playoff seasoning, and that familiar big-game aura Josh Allen carries into every single snap. Sportsbooks have this close — Buffalo around a 1-point road favorite with a totals line sitting near 52 — and there’s good reason. Jacksonville’s riding an eight-game heater with serious scoring juice, while Buffalo just handled business against the Jets and has the NFL’s top rushing attack by yards per game.
Make no mistake: this is a classic strength-on-strength matchup. Buffalo wants to run it downhill and throw off it; Jacksonville has been stuffing the run, playing fast on the perimeter, and asking Trevor Lawrence to work efficiently. Add in a 1 p.m. local kick at EverBank Stadium and favorable weather, and this one profiles like a razor-thin playoff tilt where situational football, red-zone precision, and one or two well-timed pressures could swing the ticket.
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Our betting predictions: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Main Tip: Total Under 53.0 Points
1) Total Under 53.0 points at best price -125 with bet365. Why: Jacksonville’s been scoring in bunches lately, but the matchup chessboard leans toward longer drives, field position, and red-zone reads rather than a track meet. The Bills lean on the league’s top rushing average (about 159.6 yards per game) and a 5.0 yards-per-carry profile; that combination tends to compress possessions. On the other side, Coen’s offense is humming, but he’s also balanced and willing to string methodical drives. Our estimate: 57% chance of staying under, while the market is hanging -125. Tip: Under 53.0.
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Tip 2: Spread – Jaguars +1.5
2) Spread: Jaguars +1.5 at best price -115 at bet365. Why: Jacksonville is 12-5 against the spread (about 70.6%) this season and 8-0 against the number during their current run, winning by an average margin of two touchdowns at home. The Bills’ ATS profile (8-9 overall; 6-9 laying points) says this number is pick’em territory with a small nudge to the home side when we account for travel, early kickoff, and Jacksonville’s surge. Our estimate: 55% cover probability for the Jags at +1.5. Tip: Jaguars +1.5 at -115 with bet365.
Pick 3: Moneyline – Jaguars Win
3) Moneyline: Jaguars win (home ML at best odds with DraftKings). Why: Buffalo’s playoff chops are real, but Jacksonville has been a terrific home team (7-1) with the league’s best average home margin of victory lately. The Jags’ run defense strength and red-zone stability pull this slightly their way. We project a 52% home win probability (roughly -108 fair odds). With the market near -105 for Jacksonville and Buffalo about -115, there’s a small edge on the home ML. Tip: Jacksonville moneyline.
Team Statistics
Strong recent form for Jacksonville (AFC South): The Jaguars are sprinting into January on an eight-game win streak, averaging about 33.6 points per game with a per-game point differential around +19 at home. In the AFC South landscape, that played like a heavyweight run and delivered the No. 3 seed. Since midseason, their passing output has hovered around the mid-200s per game, and Trevor Lawrence has tightened things up dramatically: roughly 236 passing yards per game this year, about 1.7 passing touchdowns per game, and around 0.7 interceptions per game. On the ground, Travis Etienne’s recent form has trended in that 70-yard neighborhood game to game, and the line has protected well enough to keep the chains moving.
Defensively, Jacksonville’s calling card is run defense — allowing roughly 87 adjusted rushing yards per game — and that’s a pivotal edge against Buffalo’s fastball. The pass defense has been more middle-pack in yardage allowed, but the structure works when they force second-and-long and third-and-long. Tackling in space and rally speed by their linebacker unit has been a top-three run-stopping asset by most efficiency measures. ATS-wise, 12-5 is premium. At home, 7-1 with a sizable average margin speaks to clean execution and situational control.
Hot but road-tested Buffalo (AFC East): The Bills won four of their last five (80% win rate over that stretch) and just rolled the Jets 35-8. Offensively, Buffalo ranks first in rushing per game at about 159.6 with a 5.0 yards-per-carry clip, and James Cook has produced approximately 95 rushing yards per game this season on a little over 18 carries per game, with a per-game touchdown rate just under three-quarters. That balance helps Josh Allen, who has averaged roughly 2.3 total touchdowns per game this season, and he’s sharpened the aim with an adjusted completion rate above 71%.
Defensively, the Bills’ pass rush still flashes, but the run defense has been leaky — bottom-five metrics by yards per carry allowed (around 5.1), success rate, and rush EPA. That’s a potential stress point against Jacksonville’s varied ground game and RPO looks. Against the spread, Buffalo is 8-9 overall and about break-even over the last 10. In the AFC East, they’ve been in the mix all year, but they’re here as a wild card, and that puts them on the road against a top-three seed in the AFC South.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Josh Allen’s playoff background is extensive, and his season-long production has run about 2.3 total touchdowns per game with a sharpened 71.1% adjusted completion rate. Trevor Lawrence’s 2025 pace sits near 236 passing yards per game with around 1.7 passing touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game, plus roughly 21 rushing yards and about 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Over his last six, Lawrence’s output jumps to a little more than three total touchdowns per game with near-zero turnovers.
Parker Washington has delivered in the last three, averaging about 116 receiving yards per game and two-thirds of a touchdown per game. The weather looks favorable, which pushes both coaching staffs toward their preferred identities. Coen’s Jags have been disciplined and fast; Sean McDermott’s Bills lean on multidimensional run looks and Allen’s creation. Monitor Buffalo’s special teams health and Jacksonville’s offensive line nicks, but overall, both sides appear ready to roll.
Last direct match
Last regular-season meeting (Week 3, 2024): Buffalo 47-10 at home. In the 2018 Wild Card, Jacksonville handed Buffalo a 10-3 loss.
Performance last 5 Matches
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5 wins, 0 losses (last game 41-7 vs. Titans). Buffalo Bills: 4 wins, 1 loss (last game 35-8 vs. Jets).
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Totals: We’re leading with Under 53.0 at -125. With Buffalo’s rush-rate profile limiting total possessions and Jacksonville’s willingness to play balanced, our 57% projection beats the current price. In a playoff setting, one fewer explosive mistake often decides it; fewer possessions lift Under equity. Spread: Jaguars +1.5 at -115. The Jags’ ATS heater (12-5 overall, 8-0 during the streak) plus run-defense edge against Buffalo’s strength gives the home team a small but real cushion. Early start, home noise, and a top-tier home margin tilt the math.
Moneyline: Jaguars -105. We make this roughly a 52% home win. The Bills’ experience is the counter, and Allen can tilt any game, but Jacksonville’s recent efficiency and trench play nudge this toward Coen’s crew at a small price. Bottom line: This is a tight Wild Card bout with contrasting identities. The market calling it a coin flip is fair, but the matchup dynamics quietly favor a slightly slower script and a home team that’s been covering numbers for two months. Our card reflects that: Under 53.0, Jaguars +1.5, and a lean to the Jacksonville moneyline.
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