Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers 11/30/2025
We’ve got a classic late-season AFC tussle in the late window: Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium. Two proud franchises, two fan bases that travel, and a lot on the line for the AFC playoff picture. The Bills come in at 7-4, looking to stabilize after a tight road loss to Houston. The Steelers are 6-5 and licking their wounds after a 28-31 road loss to Chicago. For bettors, this setup blends recent volatility with matchup clarity: Buffalo is the road favorite, while Pittsburgh at home sits as the underdog.
Injury-wise, Buffalo’s biggest swing factor is up front: both starting tackles trending out is no small note when you’re dealing with T.J. Watt. Josh Allen is listed with right elbow soreness, but has practiced and is expected to go. For Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin’s crew is banged up at tackle and on defense, but Watt is expected to play. The Steelers’ pass defense has struggled, and that gives Buffalo a path—if Allen gets enough time. That’s the chess match right there.
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Our betting predictions for Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Main Tip: Game Total – Under 47.0 Points
Betting tip 1: Total – Under 47.0 points at -122 with Fanatics. The angle: Pittsburgh’s recent offensive trend under Russell Wilson has been conservative, and in the late-season cool at Acrisure, this profiles as a field-position game with a premium on pass protection and red-zone execution. Wilson’s last-year finish included a stretch averaging 14 points per game in the final four; more recently, he’s been under 200 passing yards per game during similar skids. If Buffalo’s tackles are compromised, that means more conservative calls, more Allen improvisation, and likely fewer explosive downfield shots. My number says the Under clears slightly more often than not. – Betting tip: Take Under 47.0 at -122 with Fanatics.
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Tip 2: Spread – Steelers +4.0
Betting tip 2: Spread – Steelers +4.0 at -110 with Fanatics (Estimated 53% probability). The angle: Mike Tomlin as a home underdog in a late-season AFC spot is never a bad ticket to hold. Pittsburgh is 4-2 at home (66.7% win rate) and keeps games snug with a top-tier pass rush even when the back end wobbles. With Buffalo likely down both tackles, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith can tilt drives. Even if Allen does Allen things, you’ve got an extra field goal plus a hook working for you. Betting tip: Take Pittsburgh +4.0 at -110 with Fanatics Sportsbook.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Buffalo Bills
Moneyline: Bills (best odds at bet365 Sportsbook). The angle: My numbers lean Buffalo by a field goal to four, with a roughly 58–60% win chance. That’s a shade lower than the implied probability of -189, so not a huge value edge. Still, if you want a side, Buffalo’s higher ceiling and recent head-to-head edge (Bills have taken three of the last five) nudges the lean to the road favorite. The home price in Pittsburgh is tempting for value hunters, but our official side pick is Buffalo if you must choose the moneyline. Betting tip: Lean Bills moneyline at bet365, but our stronger positions are the Under and Steelers +4.0.
Team Statistics and Form Guide
Pittsburgh Steelers (home)
- Record: 6-5 overall (54.5% win rate), 4-2 at home (66.7% home win rate), 2-3 away.
- Last result: 28-31 road loss to the Bears.
- Form (last five): 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Identity: Mike Tomlin’s team leans on the pass rush—T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are the tip of the spear—yet the secondary has been targeted, with performance that ranks near the bottom of the league against the pass. That creates volatility: splash plays on defense offset by chunk gains allowed. Offensively, with Russell Wilson, the Steelers have prioritized ball security; over an 11-game sample last season, Wilson averaged about 225.6 passing yards per game, roughly 1.45 passing TDs per game, and about 0.45 INTs per game. That conservative profile keeps them in one-score games at home, especially with a crowd that can change cadence and timing for opposing offenses.
Buffalo Bills (road)
- Record: 7-4 overall (63.6% win rate), 4-2 at home, 2-3 away (40% road win rate).
- Last result: 19-23 road loss to the Texans.
- Form (last five): 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Identity: With Sean McDermott and Josh Allen, the Bills remain multiple on offense—QB runs, layered play-action, and designed verticals—but the O-line injuries are this week’s headline. Allen’s individual game log swings from a historic six-TD showcase against Tampa Bay (three passing, three rushing) to a turnover-heavy follow-up and an eight-sack spike against Houston. That variance is real. The defense is still fast and opportunistic, but with Terrel Bernard dinged and moving parts at corner, they’ve needed Allen to carry more of the load. The Bills’ challenge is managing negative plays and passing down protection in a hostile environment.
Divisional context
- Buffalo: AFC East—firmly in the division and wild-card chase; this game helps maintain seeding leverage with four division games still looming down the stretch.
- Pittsburgh: AFC North—Every week is a brawl in this division. At 6-5, the Steelers are in the thick of the wild-card picture and still knocking on the divisional door with internal tiebreaks very much in play.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Josh Allen is listed with right elbow soreness, but has practiced fully; the bigger issue is likely protection with both starting tackles trending out. T.J. Watt against backup tackles is mismatch theater.
- Steelers’ pass defense has ranked near the bottom of the league, but the rush can mask it in high-leverage downs. – Russell Wilson’s profile: approximately 225.6 pass yards per game with about 1.45 TD and 0.45 INT per game over an 11-game run—efficient but not explosive.
- Allen’s deep-ball trend cooled the past two seasons before a breakout vs Tampa; if pressure speeds him up, explosive rates shrink.
- External: 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, November Pittsburgh conditions, no severe weather flags. Crowd noise and slick footing could tilt toward defense and conservative calls.
Last direct match
Last head-to-head finished 9-3 to Buffalo in Pittsburgh—tight, defense-first, and a reminder these teams can grind possessions when pass rush dictates tempo.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Buffalo Bills: 3 wins, 2 losses.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re approaching this with a “pass rush and pace” lens. Buffalo’s better on paper, yes—but the combination of tackle injuries, Watt’s presence, and Pittsburgh’s home environment points toward a lower-scoring script. That’s why our favorite play is Under 47.0. Fewer clean pockets, longer third downs, more field goals than touchdowns—especially if both coaches lean on the run game to manage risk. Second, Steelers +4.0. Mike Tomlin’s teams live in the margins, and this looks like a classic Tomlin spot to keep it within one score. Even if the Bills win, the hook is your friend.
Lastly, the moneyline. We lean Bills with about a 58–60% win probability. The implied is higher, so it’s more of a lean than a must-bet. If you need a side, it’s Buffalo’s higher-ceiling offense and recent head-to-head edge that nudges us there. But the clearer value is on the Under and the Steelers with the points. With playoff positioning on the line, expect a physical grinder in the late window.
