Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders 09/28/2025

It’s a Week 4 late-window matchup in Vegas, and it checks a lot of boxes for bettors looking to read early-season tea leaves. The Bears roll into Allegiant Stadium at 1-2, fresh off a statement win over Dallas, but their injury list is already swelling at critical spots. T.J. Edwards, Kyler Gordon, Grady Jarrett, Colston Loveland, and Darnell Wright all missed Wednesday’s session, with Wright’s elbow concern looming large for an offensive line that just found rhythm. Depth questions extend further with Jaylon Jones, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift all limited, leaving Chicago’s roster stretched thin on both sides of the ball.

The Raiders return home at 1-2, still smarting from a road loss in Washington, and their own health picture isn’t spotless. Rookie Brock Bowers was a full participant despite a knee tag, but Michael Mayer remains in concussion protocol and sat out. In the secondary, Jeremy Chinn and Decameron Richardson were both limited, a reminder that Vegas’ back end could be tested if Chicago finds ways to stretch the field.

On paper, Chicago has been the higher-ceiling offense, averaging 25.3 points per game against Vegas’ 17.7, though the Bears’ defense has leaked nearly 31.0 per outing compared to the Raiders’ 24.7 allowed. Past meetings tilt toward Chicago — four wins in the last five — but Allegiant has a way of flipping game scripts fast. With both teams banged up and eyeing the difference between 2-2 steadiness and 1-3 urgency, this one becomes as much about attrition as execution

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Our betting predictions for the match Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders

Our Main Tip: Spread — Chicago Bears +1.0

Spread — Chicago Bears +1.0 at approximately -110 with Caesars Sportsbook: The Bears step in with the stronger recent performance, and their offense has been more multiple, averaging about 25.3 ppg to Vegas’ 17.7. The Raiders’ defense has struggled to get off the field early, and the Bears’ last outing hinted at a cleaner script—better situational football, fewer mistakes. With a small number like +1.0, we’re essentially asking Chicago to keep it within a point or win outright. The momentum edge plus slightly better scoring profile pushes this side.

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Tip 2: Moneyline – Las Vegas Raiders to Win

Moneyline — Las Vegas Raiders (BetMGM Sportsbook best price): If you’re playing the moneyline, it’s a classic coin-flip price range, but there’s always context. Vegas is the home side in a controlled environment, which can stabilize protection and pre-snap operation. The Bears have a road split of 21 scored and 52 allowed in their only away game so far, and Allegiant can be tricky. If you prefer the home angle in tight numbers, Vegas ML at competitive odds is the buy.

Tip 3: Totals – Under 48.5 Points

Total — Under 48.5 at approximately -110 with BetMGM: The average combined scoring for these teams sits in a band that makes this total interesting—Bears games are landing around 56.3 combined, Raiders about 42.3 combined. The push-pull here: Chicago can score, but Vegas has been more deliberate on offense, and the Bears’ defense showed corrective signs last week. With Vegas averaging just under 18 and aiming to slow things down, game flow can land below 49 if the Raiders extend drives and compress possessions. Under 48.5 at -110 has real merit.

Team news

Both teams come in 1-2 and are looking to anchor their early-season identity. The Raiders, under head coach Pete Carroll, have leaned into a physical, balanced approach, but explosive consistency has been hit or miss through three weeks. Chicago, under head coach Ben Johnson, is trying to build on a breakthrough performance at home and translate it to the road, where the Bears have struggled in their lone trip.

Las Vegas Raiders performance check

The Raiders’ overall profile is about discipline and timely playmaking, but the results have been uneven: one win in three, including a tough road loss last time out. At home, they’re 0-1 with a single-game scoring average of 9 points for and 20 against. That’s the snapshot they’ll try to correct. Vegas has the athletes to stress secondaries, and staying ahead of the chains is critical against a Chicago defense that just delivered its best outing of the season.

Defensively, Vegas is allowing about 24.7 points per game, with the biggest concern being explosive plays on third down and late in halves. The Raiders’ pass rush has to influence the pocket and discourage deep-developing concepts—especially with Chicago showing an ability to push the ball when protected. Special teams and field position loom larger in a tight spread game; expect Pierce to manage aggressiveness with an eye on a fourth-quarter surge. If the Raiders can stabilize red-zone defense and keep that scoring allowance closer to 20 at home, the path to a home win becomes far clearer.

How is the current performance of the Chicago Bears

The Bears’ arrow is pointing up after that 31-14 home win over Dallas, a performance that featured cleaner operation and a defense that stepped up in leverage moments. Through three games, Chicago is averaging about 25.3 points and allowing around 31.0, so the mission is to bring that points-allowed number down—especially on the road. Their lone away outing was rough (21 scored, 52 allowed), but a balanced plan and quicker answers against pressure helped against the Cowboys and should travel better this week.

Ben Johnson’s defense leaned into speed and rally tackling in Week 3, which fits their profile. The Bears don’t need perfection in Vegas; they just need to control the explosives, win on early downs, and keep the game in phase so their offense isn’t forced into predictable pass situations. If Chicago sustains drives and finishes with touchdowns instead of field goals, they have the personnel to pressure a Raiders defense that’s still searching for a wire-to-wire performance.

Statistics

• – Last direct meeting: Chicago 30-12, a home win for the Bears.
• – Head-to-Head (last five, all competitions): Bears 4 wins, Raiders 1 win.
• – Form (last five, all competitions): Raiders 1 win, 4 losses; Bears 3 wins, 2 losses.
• – Last match results: – Raiders: 24-41 away loss at Washington. – Bears: 31-14 home win vs Dallas.
• – Scoring averages (this season): – Raiders: about 17.7 points scored per game; roughly 24.7 allowed. – Bears: around 25.3 points scored per game; about 31.0 allowed.
• – Home/Away splits: – Raiders at home: 9 scored, 20 allowed (1 game sample). – Bears on the road: 21 scored, 52 allowed (1 game sample).

Context matters here: a one-game home/away sample can skew the picture, but early trends suggest Vegas will try to slow the pace and squeeze possessions, while Chicago will seek to carry over the cleaner offensive rhythm from last week. In a one-possession projection, turnovers, hidden yardage, and red-zone execution become the deciding stats.

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TrustnBet Final Thoughts

Our three angles tell a consistent story. First, Chicago +1.0 is the most flexible path, leveraging the Bears’ recent uptick while acknowledging Allegiant’s home-field effect. Second, if you want a moneyline decision, align with your script preference: the steadier home environment favors Vegas (BetMGM Sportsbook). Third, Under 48.5 hinges on Vegas’ pace and the Bears’ defensive correction sustaining in key spots. With Week 4 urgency high and both teams working to define themselves within their divisions, the tighter game state favors the spread and total plays most.