Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles 11/28/2025
Let’s set the scene in South Philly. It’s Week 13 at Lincoln Financial Field, and we’ve got two 8-3 teams on a collision course that feels a lot like January in late November. The Eagles, guided by head coach Nick Sirianni, are 4-1 at home and sitting right in the NFC East hunt. The Bears under Ben Johnson are on the rise, 4-2 on the road and fresh off a tight home win. Both teams come in 4-1 over their last five, so recent momentum isn’t a problem for either side — it’s about who can keep it rolling.
From a betting angle, the profiles are fascinating. Philly averages a shade over 23 points per game, allowing just over 20, and they tighten up at home. Chicago’s offense has quietly been more explosive on the season at roughly 26 points per game, but the defense has bled away points on the road — over 31 allowed per outing away from Soldier Field. That home/road split is the kind of detail that moves markets and gives us an opening on totals and spread angles. With the Eagles off a narrow road loss in Dallas and the Bears edging Pittsburgh in a shootout, we’ve got contrasting recent outcomes and a clear leverage point: Philly’s physicality at home against a Bears defense that’s been vulnerable in hostile environments.
If you think Philly’s built for a deep run, check the Philadelphia Eagles futures odds — the market might already be hinting at something big.
Our betting predictions: Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
Main Tip: Game Totals – Over 44.5 Points
Our primary betting tip: Over 44.5 points at -112 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Why it’s first: The matchup data leans Over. Philly’s overall scoring average sits around 23.2 per game, and Chicago’s is near 26.3. Even if you anchor to Philly’s home defensive strength, the Bears’ road defense has allowed roughly 31.5 per game. That combination pushes our projection into the high 40s. I’ve got a 57% probability the Over cashes, with a median outcome near 48-49 points. If the Eagles jump ahead, Chicago’s pace and urgency tend to increase late — good news for total points.
If you’re tired of clunky apps, the Fanatics Sportsbook app is a breath of fresh air — everything’s just easy to get to.
Tip 2: Spread Pick – Eagles -6.5
Our secondary betting tip: Spread – Eagles -6.5 at -115 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Home splits are doing work here. The Eagles at the Linc are outscoring teams by about 6.4 points per game, while the Bears on the road are getting outscored by about 6.0. Blend those and you get a projected margin in the Eagles’ range to cover. My number lands Eagles by 7-9, with a 54% chance they clear -6.5. Expect Sirianni to lean into the script and tempo early, then trust that pass rush to close it out late.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Philadelphia Eagles
Our final betting prediction leans on the Moneyline: Eagles at best odds (bet365). If you prefer the safer side, I’ve got the Eagles at about a 69% win probability. The market price implies roughly 76%, so it’s a tad rich for straight plays, but it’s still the right side for parlays/rollovers. Better trenches at home, better late-game defense — that’s typically how November/December football is won in the NFC East.
Team Statistics: Philadelphia Eagles — Home Edge, Playoff Push
- Record and form: 8-3 overall, 4-1 at home, and 4-1 over the last five. They’re very much alive in the NFC East race, with tiebreakers looming large as we sprint toward the postseason.
- Scoring efficiency: The Eagles are averaging about 23.2 points per game and allowing approximately 20.5. At home, that improves to about 25.6 scored and 19.2 allowed — a noteworthy bump in both phases. That home scoring margin near +6.4 is a quietly strong indicator.
- Last result: Narrow road loss to Dallas, 21-24. Despite the loss, it reinforced that this group can trade punches with top NFC teams and still keep the game inside one score.
- Offensive profile: Philly’s identity under Sirianni is balance and situational execution — script the opening 15 plays, set Jalen up with high-percentage throws, and use the ground game to keep the sticks moving. While exact yards per game vary week to week, the overall rhythm has yielded mid-20s scoring on average, with the red zone performance improving at home.
- Defensive profile: The pass rush remains the tone-setter. The Eagles’ defense holds opponents a tick above 20 per game overall and even better at home. Physical at the line, opportunistic in coverage, and tough in short-yardage.
- NFC context: In a division that punishes errors, the Eagles have played cleaner ball at home and leveraged field position. That consistency is one reason the moneyline is expensive; the market trusts their floor at the Linc.
Team Statistics: Chicago Bears — Explosive Offense, Leaky Road Defense
- Record and form: 8-3 overall, 4-2 on the road, and 4-1 across the last five. That’s the profile of a legitimate NFC North contender in a division that prizes toughness and late-season weather football.
- Scoring efficiency: The Bears average around 26.3 points per game — one of the better marks among NFC teams this season — but they concede about 26.6 on average. The split that matters: away from home, the defense is allowing roughly 31.5 per game. That’s the red flag heading into Philly.
- Last result: A 31-28 home win over the Steelers — lively offense, late-game poise, but another reminder that the defense can be stressed by multi-dimensional attacks.
- Offensive profile: Chicago’s offense can score with anyone when it’s rolling. The design under Ben Johnson has been creative, using motion and formation variety to define reads and open grass. That’s why their per-game scoring average remains strong.
- Defensive profile: On the road, chunk plays and missed tackles have popped up. That’s the pivot point. If the front can’t hold up and the secondary gives cushion, Philly’s methodical drives will put pressure on Chicago’s offense to match possessions, and that’s where mistakes tend to happen late.
- NFC context: In the NFC North chase, the Bears are right in it, but improving road defense is the lever that decides whether they’re a division winner or a wild-card traveler.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
What I’m hearing: Philadelphia has navigated some offensive line attrition in recent seasons, and keeping the right side intact is a weekly storyline. Cam Jurgens’ availability helps stabilize protections, and any Lane Johnson updates are worth monitoring. For Chicago, the recent trend has been youth and juice on offense — big-play capability that can flip a quarter. Historically, this matchup has leaned Eagles, and the “Double Doink” memory still lingers in the fanbases. The weather in Philly this time of year can impact kicking and deep shots, but both staffs adjust well. Bottom line: if the Eagles win the line of scrimmage, their home scoring bump shows up; if Chicago hits explosives early, the total gets pushed over.
Last direct match
Most recent meeting: 25-20, an Eagles road win. Philly has taken the last five head-to-head.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Eagles: 4 wins, 1 loss.
- Bears: 4 wins, 1 loss.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s where I land after running the numbers and weighing the context. The Over 44.5 at -110 is the most compelling angle given Chicago’s high-scoring profile and road defensive slide, paired with Philly’s consistent home output. My projection sits in the high 40s, and late-game pace favors additional scoring. On the spread, Eagles -6.5 at -115 is a bet on home splits, trenches, and coaching edges. Sirianni’s group typically maximizes early possessions and wins field position; the Bears’ defense on the road hasn’t consistently held up for four quarters. That’s where a one-score game becomes a cover late. Moneyline: Eagles are pricey but reliable for parlay anchors. I estimate a 69% win probability — not a bargain, yet consistent with Philly’s home floor and the matchup details.
Put it together, and the read is straightforward: a home team with real playoff ambitions and a measurable home-field lift against a dangerous but volatile road opponent. Over 44.5, Eagles -6.5, and Eagles on the moneyline — three ways to ride the same game script with aligned logic.
| Want to See Our Top Sports Betting Guides? | |
|---|---|
| 🏈 NFL Odds Betting | 🏀 NBA Odds Betting |
| 🏈 NCAAF Odds – College Football Betting | 🏀 NCAAB Odds – College Basketball Betting |
| ⚽ Soccer Betting Odds | 🏀 WNBA Odds Betting |
| 🏒 NHL Odds Betting | ⚾ MLB Odds Betting |
