Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders 11/23/2025
If you’re looking for an off-the-radar Week 12 spot with betting value and a little Vegas theater, Browns at Raiders fits the bill. Sunday, November 23, 2025, 4:05 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium under the lights — yes, please. The Raiders enter at 2-8, the Browns also at 2-8, and while neither is pushing for the AFC’s top seed, both are trying to climb out of the division cellar and salvage momentum before December. Keep your lens on the AFC structure here: the conference’s playoff picture goes to division winners plus three wild cards, and it’s a single-elimination tournament to the Super Bowl — so every week matters for the long tail of tiebreakers. For this matchup, the numbers are telling.
Las Vegas averages 15.5 points per game and allows 25.3, while Cleveland sits at 16.2 on offense and 23.4 allowed. At home, the Raiders tick up to 19.6 points per game, while the Browns’ road offense dips to 13.8 per game away from Cleveland. Recent form? Both teams are 1-4 over the last five. The last time these two met, Las Vegas took a 20-16 nail-biter and has owned the last five head-to-heads. In a domed track with no weather headaches and both coaches — Pete Carroll and Kevin Stefanski — trying to grind out margins, we’re expecting a tight, possession-by-possession game that leans to conservative totals and a late-moneyline decision.
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Our betting predictions for the match, Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
Main Tip: Game Totals – Under 36.5 Points
Our first betting prediction (Totals): We’re siding Under 36.5 points at -115 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Why? The Raiders’ offense has hovered around 15.5 points per game, and the Browns’ travel scoring is just 13.8 per game. Las Vegas allows fewer points at home than on the road, and the Browns’ defense is better than their record suggests. Indoors doesn’t automatically mean fireworks when both teams play slow and favor field position. Expect long drives, conservative fourth-down choices, and a scoreline that stays in the low 30s.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Las Vegas Raiders to Win
Our secondary prediction (Moneyline): Raiders moneyline at BetMGM Sportsbook. Allegiant has given Las Vegas a mild scoring bump, and historical context matters — the Raiders have won five straight in this series, including 20-16 in their last meeting. Cleveland has yet to win on the road this season, and their offense has traveled poorly. With Pete Carroll’s defense tightening up at home and Cleveland’s away form sputtering, the safer side is Las Vegas to close the deal.
Tip 3: Spread – Cleveland Browns +4.5
Our final betting tip (Spread): Browns +4.5 at -125 with BetMGM Sportsbook. This is a classic corridor play: Raiders to win outright, Browns to cover inside the number. Both squads trend toward one-score outcomes, the Browns’ defense travels better than their offense, and Vegas has had issues separating in the second half. With Cleveland’s road games landing ugly but competitive, catching more than a field goal provides cover if this finishes 3 to 4 points either way.
Team news
- Venue and format: Allegiant Stadium, a controlled environment — no wind or weather variables, so execution and red-zone efficiency matter more than raw arm talent or big-leg kicking in gusty conditions.
- Coaching: Pete Carroll has leaned into discipline and complementary football in Vegas, emphasizing turnover margins and situational defense. Kevin Stefanski, steady as ever, builds week-specific plans that typically favor balance and play-action when protection holds up.
- Availability watch: As always in late November, monitor the final injury statuses for key skill players and pass rushers on both sides. Player availability can swing live totals and late spreads.
Las Vegas Raiders performance check
Las Vegas is 2-8 with a 1-4 mark at home, but the splits show nuance. At Allegiant, the Raiders average 19.6 points per game and allow 23.6 — notably better than their overall allowance of 25.3. That home bump matters for a team that still seeks consistency in the passing game and leans on quick-game throws to keep the chains moving. Over the last five, the Raiders are 1-4, with the most recent result a 16-33 home loss to Dallas. Despite that stumble, the defensive structure under Carroll has had stretches of steadier situational play at home. Expect a deliberate approach: calculated shots, some motion to help the run game, and an emphasis on protecting the football. The average margin this season sits at about -9.8 per game, but at home it narrows, and that’s a material difference attached to the moneyline price.
How is the current performance of the Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has the same 2-8 record, but the road story is rougher: 0-5 away from home with just 13.8 points per game on the road and a hefty 31.4 allowed. That’s a wide gap that can turn a close mid-game script into a fourth-quarter chase. Over their last five, the Browns are 1-4, most recently taking a 16-23 home loss against Baltimore. Stefanski’s game plans are often sharp, but protection issues and short fields for the opponent have undercut efficiency. The defense, while not elite on the road, can still hold opponents in check long enough to produce an Under-friendly contest — especially against a Raiders offense that hasn’t been a weekly explosion. The Browns’ season-long average differential is about -7.2 per game, and away from home, the negative swing is much wider. That’s why catching more than a field goal on the spread makes sense, even as their moneyline profile lags.
Team Statistics
- Scoring offense: Raiders 15.5 points per game; Browns 16.2 per game.
- Scoring defense: The Raiders allow 25.3 per game; the Browns allow 23.4 per game.
- Home/Away splits:
- Raiders at home: 19.6 scored, 23.6 allowed (five home games).
- Browns on the road: 13.8 scored, 31.4 allowed (five road games).
- Form: Both 1-4 in their last five.
- Margin of victory (season average): Raiders about -9.8 per game; Browns about -7.2 per game.
These averages paint a picture: Cleveland’s defense keeps them hanging around, but their road offense has struggled to finish drives. Vegas has been modestly better in the building, and that’s a critical differentiator for moneyline bettors.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterback play will decide the ceiling, but the floor on both offenses is capped by pace and red-zone efficiency. Expect a plan heavy on quick reads and manageable third downs — neither side wants this to turn into a turnover fest.
- Historical note: The last meeting finished 20-16 for the Raiders, and Las Vegas has taken five straight in the series. That past result reflects a template that could repeat — conservative early, incremental adjustments, and a fourth-quarter swing.
- Personnel watch: Monitor top skill players and edge rushers leading into Sunday. Availability of primary pass rushers and WR1 targets can nudge live totals and late numbers, but with both teams trending conservatively, the Under still projects as the stronger angle.
- External factor: Indoors at Allegiant removes weather variance. That typically aids efficiency, but given both teams’ season-long production rates, it’s unlikely to turn this into a shootout on its own.
Last direct match: Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns
These two squared up in their most recent meeting with Las Vegas winning 20-16 — a one-score grinder defined by defense, field position, and a controlled pace. The Raiders’ staff mixed in creative run looks and kept the Browns off balance just enough to manage the late clock.
Performance last 5 matches
- Las Vegas Raiders: 1 win, 4 losses across the last five.
- Cleveland Browns: 1 win, 4 losses across the last five.
- The shared skid sets the stage for a tight, playoff-style approach where every possession is precious and special teams’ hidden yards matter.
Last match results: Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns
- Raiders: 16-33 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The scoreboard got away late, but the first half showed glimpses of structure before Dallas found explosive plays.
- Browns: 16-23 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Cleveland battled, but red-zone finishing and late-down conversions came up short.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s where we land and why: – Under 36.5 at -115: The per-game averages point squarely to a lower total, and both teams trend to slower, possession-first football. Indoors helps efficiency, but not enough to blow past the mid-30s. – Raiders moneyline: Slightly better at home, a favorable head-to-head run, and Cleveland’s 0-5 road card keeps the edge with Vegas to get the win. – Browns +4.5 at -125: Expect a tight script. Even if Vegas wins, the Browns’ defense can keep this inside a field goal or four points.
That blend targets the most likely game flow: tight, defensive-leaning, and decided late. We’ll ride the Under, back the Raiders to handle business, and use the cushion on Cleveland plus the points to thread the corridor.
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