Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears 09/21/2025
Two proud NFC brands collide on Sunday, September 21, 2025, at 4:25 p.m. ET, when the Dallas Cowboys roll into Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears. It’s Week 3, and both teams are trying to steady the ship after slow starts. The Cowboys come off a wild 40-37 overtime win over the Giants, with Dak Prescott slinging 361 yards and two touchdowns (with one pick), while CeeDee Lamb hauled in 9 catches for 112 yards. Dallas’ offense looks dangerous, but secondary issues loom as they prepare for a Bears unit already impacted by Kyler Gordon’s confirmed absence and Jaylon Johnson’s recent injuries. Meanwhile, Chicago is reeling after a 52-21 loss to Detroit and must regroup fast to try and contain Prescott and Lamb.
Let’s set the scene through a betting lens. Chicago is averaging 22.5 points per game while giving up 39.5 through two outings. At Soldier Field, the Bears’ one home showing landed right near that pace: 24.0 points scored and 27.0 allowed. Dallas is a tick better offensively to date at 27.0 points per game, but the defense has sprung leaks, conceding 30.5. Away from home, the Cowboys have averaged 20.0 points scored and 24.0 points allowed over one road test. The last head-to-head was Dallas in a shootout, 49-29, and the five-game series trend slightly favors the Cowboys, 3-2. Even so, both teams enter with urgency after early-season losses, and the price points on the board reflect a tight contest: Chicago around the short-home-favorite zone and a totals line that begs the question — can these defenses keep a lid on it?
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Our betting predictions for the match Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears
Tip 1: Moneyline — Chicago Bears to Win
Our primary betting prediction: Moneyline — Chicago Bears to win at DraftKings at best odds. The Bears are back at Soldier Field, and their offense has quietly shown enough juice to hang with Dallas. Chicago is averaging 22.5 per game and should benefit from Dallas’ 30.5 allowed per game so far. Factor in the Bears’ slight uptick at home and the Cowboys’ more modest 20.0 points in their lone road outing, and the short number makes sense. I’ll side with the home field and a defense that should bounce back.
Tip 2: Game Total – Over 46.5 Points
Our secondary betting tip: Game Total — Over 46.5 points at best odds: -111 at Caesars Sportsbook. The matchup profile screams track meet potential. Chicago’s defense is allowing 39.5 per game, and Dallas is allowing 30.5. Even with some reversion to the mean, both offensive groups have enough playmakers to exploit coverage busts and busted-tackle opportunities. The last head-to-head flew way past this number, and with both sides keen to make a statement, the pace and play volume should be high enough to push this Over.
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Tip 3: Spread — Chicago Bears -3.0
Our final prediction: Spread — Chicago Bears -3.0 at best odds -116 with Caesars. If you like the Bears on the moneyline, there’s logic in nudging up to the full-field-goal spread. Chicago’s offense and home-field edge should translate to late-game leverage. Dallas’ road scoring clip to date (20.0 per game) is a slight concern, and Chicago’s offense has flashed enough finishing power to separate by a field goal. At this price, I’m comfortable laying the three with the Bears to cover.
First tip: Moneyline — Chicago Bears at -115
Second tip: Game Total — Over 46.5 at -111
Third tip: Spread — Bears -3.0 at -116
Team news
Both teams step into Week 3 searching for momentum and answers. Chicago returns home after a tough road stumble, while Dallas is looking to translate some late-game fireworks into a complete performance. Personnel-wise, Chicago head coach Ben Johnson will try to spark a defense that has allowed too many explosive plays through two games, while the offense seeks rhythm early to avoid playing from behind. Dallas head coach Brian Schottenheimer, meanwhile, needs his defense to tighten up on the back end and win more one-on-ones at the point of attack.
Chicago Bears performance check
Ben Johnson and the Bears understand the assignment: set a tone at home. Through two weeks, Chicago is averaging 22.5 points per game and allowing 39.5, numbers that hint at offensive capability and defensive strain. At home, the Bears’ averages improve on both fronts — 24.0 scored and 27.0 allowed in their lone Soldier Field outing — which aligns with the angle that this team responds better in front of its crowd. Their last game, a 21-52 road loss at Detroit, skewed the defensive average in a major way, but that can be contextualized: facing a divisional rival’s fast start in a hostile environment.
Here, the emphasis should be on gap integrity in the run fit and cleaner coverage communication. Offensively, Chicago needs efficient early-down passing to stay on schedule and leverage play-action, plus a steady rushing presence to keep the Cowboys’ pass rush from pinning its ears back. From a standings perspective, the Bears are working to climb in the NFC North chase — a home result here is precisely the kind that matters when we talk tiebreakers down the road.
How is the current performance of the Dallas Cowboys
Schottenheimer’s Cowboys are averaging 27.0 points per game but giving up 30.5, and the defense has yet to fully settle. On the road, the offense has checked in at 20.0 per game, so a key storyline is whether Dallas can get into the mid-20s away from Arlington. Their most recent result, a 40-37 OT home win over the Giants, highlighted the offense’s ability to create chunk gains and finish drives under pressure, yet it also underscored the defensive lapses that turned a comfortable situation into a shootout.
If Dallas can clean up tackling and tighten coverage in the intermediate areas, the unit should look more like what preseason expectations suggested. In the NFC East picture, results like this one are critical; divisional schedules can be brutal, and you cannot rely solely on in-division wins to keep you in the wild-card race. Dallas needs a complete game.
Statistics
– Last direct match: Dallas beat Chicago 49-29, a game that showcased explosive plays on both sides and very little resistance in space. You didn’t need a calculator to know that one got out of hand late.
- Head-to-Head last five meetings: Bears 2 wins, Cowboys 3 wins. Slight lean to Dallas historically, but recent rosters and schemes matter more than ancient history.
- Performance last five matches (all competitions):
- Chicago Bears: 2 wins, 2 losses. The pattern suggests inconsistency but also a competitive ceiling when the offense stays on script.
- Dallas Cowboys: 2 wins, 3 losses. Flashes of high-end output, offset by defensive swings and situational miscues.
- Last match results:
- Chicago Bears: 21-52 road loss to the Lions. That outing inflated the points-allowed average; look for a prideful response.
- Dallas Cowboys: 40-37 OT home win over the Giants. Wild finish, fireworks on both sides, and a reminder that the Cowboys can win a shootout but also invite one.
- Chicago home/overall scoring:
- Overall: 22.5 points scored per game, 39.5 allowed per game (through two).
- Home: 24.0 scored, 27.0 allowed (one game sample).
Expect Ben Johnson to emphasize early pressure looks and more help over the top to avoid explosives that distort the averages.
- Dallas road/overall scoring:
- Overall: 27.0 points scored per game, 30.5 allowed per game.
- Road: 20.0 scored, 24.0 allowed (one game sample).
If Dallas hits or exceeds its season average here, the Over becomes even more attractive.
- Contextual angles:
- Chicago will aim to lean into play-action and a balanced rush/pass mix to slow the Cowboys’ front.
- Dallas will look for quick-game rhythm and pre-snap motion to create leverage in the passing game.
- Special teams field position could swing a possession or two — the kind of hidden yards that matter in tight spreads near a field goal.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This matchup sets up cleanly for a three-leg approach: moneyline, total, and spread. We’re backing the Bears on the moneyline thanks to home-field comfort and a scoring baseline that fits nicely versus a Dallas defense still finding its level. We like Over 46.5 because both defenses have been permissive, and the offensive averages point toward a mid-to-high 20s game on each side if execution holds. And we’ll lay the field goal with Chicago -3.0 as a correlated play with the moneyline — if the Bears win, the path to covering by three is clear. Put it together, and the read is straightforward: home edge, favorable offensive matchups, and a totals number that’s within reach if either defense cracks for a quarter or two.
