Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions 12/04/2025
Short week, primetime lights, and two NFC contenders with very different vibes right now. Dallas heads into Detroit having steadied the ship with a late-November surge, while Dan Campbell’s Lions are trying to power through injuries and re-find their early-season rhythm at Ford Field. The number that jumps off the page for bettors: both teams average roughly 29 points per game this season, and the game’s indoors on fast turf. That combo screams fireworks.
The market has Detroit favored at home, and that checks out, given that Ford Field has been friendly to the Lions. Still, Dallas has covered ground recently thanks to a defensive front that’s winning more downs and an offense that’s balanced enough to keep pace if this turns into a track meet. If you like options, this matchup offers a clean three-way betting menu: moneyline, spread, and a total that could be the most actionable angle of the week.
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Our betting predictions for Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Best Bet: Total – Over 54.0 total Points
Over 54.0 total points (best price -125 at BetMGM): My projection makes this total closer to 56, and the underlying math backs it up. Detroit’s offense at home averages about 32.0 points per game, Dallas on the road averages 25.8—call it a 57.8-point baseline before you factor in pace and dome conditions. Add in Dallas’ road defense allowing 27.8 per game, and Detroit’s home defense allowing 20.8, and you’ve got multiple paths to a shootout. Projected hit rate: 57%. Betting tip: Over 54.0 at -125 with BetMGM.
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Tip 2: Spread – Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (best price -120 at BetMGM): Detroit’s home edge is real, but Dallas’ pass game and improving defensive interior travel. With the Cowboys’ offense averaging 25.8 on the road and the Lions posting 32.0 at home, this profiles as a one-score finish either way. My number lands in Detroit by 2.2 on median outcomes, which means the hook is your friend. Projected cover probability: 55%. Betting tip: Dallas +3.5 at -120 with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Lions to Win
Moneyline: Lions to win (best prices: at DraftKings Sportsbook): This is where nuance matters. The Lions at home get a slight edge in win probability thanks to the environment, coaching continuity, and their red-zone efficiency at Ford Field. My projection: Detroit 63% (implied around -170), Dallas 37% (+170). That aligns closely with the listed prices. If you want the side, Detroit is fair; if you’re chasing a plus-money swing, Dallas is the value dart. Betting tip: Lean Lions moneyline, stronger preference on Over, and Cowboys +3.5.
Team Statistics and Current Form Snapshot
Detroit Lions (Home, NFC North)
- Record: 7-5 overall, 4-2 at home. Last game: 24-31 home loss to Green Bay.
- Scoring averages (must-know for bettors): 29.2 points per game, 22.8 allowed per game. At Ford Field, the Lions average 32.0 points scored and allow 20.8—a clear uptick in offensive output at home.
- Momentum notes: The last five have been choppy (2-3), and injuries to key pass-catchers and along the spine of the offense have forced Dan Campbell to mix and match. Still, Detroit’s identity is intact—physical run game, play-action shots, and an opportunistic defense when it gets to long downs.
- Ball-security/pressure tendencies: Detroit’s best defensive stretches come when their front gets heat early, setting up obvious passing situations and letting the secondary jump routes. Discipline and early-down success are the dials.
Dallas Cowboys (Away, NFC East)
- Record: 6-5 overall, 2-4 away. Last game: 31-28 home win over Kansas City.
- Scoring averages: 29.3 points per game, 28.5 allowed per game. On the road, Dallas averages 25.8 points and allows 27.8—solid offense, but the defense concedes more away from Arlington.
- Recent form: 3-2 across the last five, with a notable confidence bump after Thanksgiving. The passing game has found rhythm, and improved interior defense has helped on money downs.
- Situational angle: Dallas has been better in scripted series and late-half sequences lately, a trend that can keep them within a field goal in a high-scoring setup.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Health and availability matter here: Amon-Ra St. Brown has been week-to-week after an ankle issue; Detroit’s tight end room has taken hits, and Dan Campbell has hinted at thin depth. Safety Kerby Joseph is trending but not locked in; the tight end unit’s long-term outlook is cloudy. On Dallas’ side, the defense has been bolstered by interior help and could soon get secondary reinforcements if timelines cooperate.
- Scheduling/setting: Back-to-back short-week rhythms from Thanksgiving can compress game plans—but this one’s indoors at Ford Field, a plus for offensive consistency and total points.
- Coaching edges: Campbell’s aggressive, go-for-it mentality plays well at home; Dallas counterpunches with a quick-game passing plan and tempo. Net effect: more possessions and more scoring chances.
Last direct match
October 2024: Detroit rolled 47-9 on the road, with the Lions forcing five turnovers and hitting explosive plays in the pass game. That snapped a long run of Dallas success in the series.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Detroit Lions: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Dallas Cowboys: 3 wins, 2 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This sets up like a classic fast-track, high-total primetime game. Our strongest angle is the Over 54.0, supported by both teams’ season-long scoring averages and the dome advantage. The second-most attractive piece is Dallas +3.5 at -120—our projection has this landing inside a field goal often, and that hook is gold in a game that profiles as a track meet. Moneyline? We lean Lions thanks to home comfort and Dan Campbell’s aggressive decision-making, but the price is about right; if you want a heavier opinion, keep most of your stake on the total and spread.
Probability snapshot:
- Over 54.0 hits 57% (fair ~ -125)
- Cowboys +3.5 covers 55% (fair ~ -120)
- Lions win 63% (approx -170), Cowboys 37% (+170)
The why: Detroit’s home offense and Dallas’ road offense are both above average; their defensive splits point to plenty of sustained drives. The Cowboys’ improved interior defense should keep them competitive even if Detroit lands early shots, which is why the +3.5 is live. And in a late-possession game, the Lions’ comfort at Ford Field tilts the outright win probability their way. Card in one line: Over 54.0 (-125) > Cowboys +3.5 (-120) > Lions ML.
