Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants 01/04/2026
Week 18 brings us a classic NFC East tilt: Dallas Cowboys (7-8) traveling to face the New York Giants (3-13) on Sunday, January 4, 2026. It’s a divisional rivalry where motivation, pride, and roster health matter as much as raw numbers. The line is set with Dallas as a sizable moneyline favorite and the home Giants at plus market, and we’ve got a total of 52.5 hanging in a spot that begs the question: Will either side truly push pace with both seasons winding down?
Dallas has won two of its last three with a 30-23 road win at Washington most recently, while the Giants are coming off a punchy 34-10 road win at Las Vegas. Recent form favors Dallas a touch, and the head-to-head has leaned that way heavily for a while. Still, Brian Daboll’s Giants have shown flashes in late-season spots, and divisional games can bring unexpected game scripts. Let’s break down the numbers, the matchup context, and the betting angles that offer the most value for an American audience.
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Our betting predictions: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Main Tip: Spread pick – Dallas Cowboys -5.0
1) Spread pick: Dallas Cowboys -5.0 at -118 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Why we like it: Dallas is averaging roughly 28.4 points per game on offense over 16 games, while allowing about 29.8. The Giants are at about 21.7 on offense and 26.4 allowed. In divisional terms, Dallas has consistently created separation in this matchup, and the Cowboys’ offensive ceiling outstrips New York’s typical weekly output. With Brian Schottenheimer calling it and Dallas finding enough rhythm late, a one-score win is a realistic baseline. – Probability estimate: 58% to cover the -5.0. Best available number: -118 for Dallas -5.0.
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Tip 2: Total – Under 52.5
2) Total: Under 52.5 at -115 with bet365. Why we like it: The Giants’ games have averaged about 48.1 combined points (their offense plus what they allow), and while Dallas games have run hotter (around 58.2), late-season divisional football often compresses possessions and tilts toward field position. If the Giants struggle to sustain drives, the total risks falling just short of the low-50s marker. Add in the potential for both teams to lean on the ground game once in front or behind, and the Under gets attractive. Best available number: -115 on Under 52.5.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Dallas Cowboys
3) Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys at bet365. Why we like it: The implied probability is roughly 70%. Our matchup projection sits close to 68–70% in favor of Dallas when factoring in recent offensive consistency, H2H dominance, and the Giants’ habit of getting stuck in low-efficiency downs. New York at +195 correlates with around 34% implied, which feels a tick rich given the on-field gaps. Probability estimate: 68–70% win chance for Dallas; 30–32% for New York.
Team Statistics and Form Guide
New York Giants (Home)
- Record and recent form: The Giants come in at 3-13 overall with a recent uptick after a 34-10 win in Las Vegas, but the broader five-game sample sits at 1-4. At home, they’ve been 2-5, and on the road 3-5, with volatility week to week.
- Scoring profile: Averaging about 21.7 points per game, allowing about 26.4. That net of about -4.7 per game tracks with their record. The offense has struggled to string together sustained drives, often putting the defense in tough field-position spots.
- Coaching and division context: Brian Daboll’s group has tried different answers on offense while managing injuries and young player development. Inside the NFC East, the Giants have chased their rivals most of the season.
- Efficiency notes: While big-play spikes have appeared, consistency has been the issue. The defense can generate disruptive moments, but down-to-down reliability is where they’ve been stuck. That makes game scripts fragile—fall behind, and the balance disappears.
- Takeaway angle for bettors: When the Giants keep games within one score and win the turnover battle, they can grind. But they’ve too often been on the wrong side of those margins, and their average output hasn’t been enough to chase higher-tempo offenses.
Dallas Cowboys (Away)
- Record and recent form: Dallas sits at 7-8, winning two of its last three, most recently 30-23 at Washington. Away from home, they’ve been 3-5. Over the last five, they’re 2-3, but the offense has found enough balance to stay dangerous.
- Scoring profile: Offense around 28.4 per game; defense allowing about 29.8. That split suggests shootout tendencies in Cowboys games, but divisional tempo and situational play-calling can rein it in.
- Coaching and division context: Brian Schottenheimer’s offense at its best leans on a steady passing rhythm with selective shots and a complementary ground game. In the NFC East race, Dallas has outpaced New York, but they’ve also been inconsistent late in games, which has inflated the points allowed.
- Efficiency notes: Dallas has lived off chunk plays and explosive-passing stretches when protected. When they build a two-score edge, they typically manage the game with calculated runs and possession passing.
- Takeaway angle for bettors: The Cowboys’ ceiling can cover a mid-range spread, but the path to a lower total emerges if they secure a lead and take the air out late, particularly on the road in a divisional spot.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Brian Daboll’s Giants have navigated a brutal injury load, and their defense—despite some splash plays—has been vulnerable on the ground. Dallas has leaned on late-season rhythm from Dak Prescott, who’s averaged around the 300-yard mark in recent outings, and a backfield that pops just enough to keep chains moving. Special teams tilt slightly to Dallas, and in a Week 18 divisional setup, hidden yards can swing the middle quarters. The stadium is listed as unknown in this data set, so weather’s not a forecasted factor here. Motivation will flow from rivalry and roster evaluations; for New York, reps and building blocks matter, while Dallas is pushing to finish near .500 and carry momentum into the offseason.
Last direct match
Dallas edged New York 40-37 in overtime after a 10-7 regulation scoreline—a reminder that divisional games can flip late on one or two explosive plays.
Performance last 5 Matches
- New York Giants: 1 win, 4 losses
- Dallas Cowboys: 2 wins, 3 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re landing on three angles that fit how these teams have actually played and how Week 18 often unfolds: Spread: Dallas -5.0. The Cowboys’ per-game scoring profile and matchup history suggest they’re more likely to create separation, even on the road. Our cover probability sits around 58%. Total: Under 52.5 at -110. The Giants’ average combined scoring sits closer to the high 40s, and divisional pace plus second-half clock bleed should keep us under more often than not. Our under probability is near 56%. Moneyline: Dallas. Our projection lines up with a roughly 68–70% Cowboys win probability. New York has a path, but it requires turnover wins and red-zone efficiency that they haven’t consistently shown.
Bottom line: Dallas’ late-season offense, paired with New York’s inconsistency and a divisional tempo that can compress total scoring, points us to Cowboys -5.0 and Under 52.5 as the sharper plays, with the Dallas moneyline as a parlay anchor or conservative standalone.
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