Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders 12/25/2025
Let’s set the scene: Cowboys at Commanders, Week 17, 1:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 25. It’s an NFC East tilt with two long-time rivals, a Washington team coached by Dan Quinn trying to steady the ship at home, and a Dallas side led by Brian Schottenheimer looking to close strong on the road. From a betting angle, the profiles are pretty clear. Washington has stumbled to a 4-11 mark, 2-5 at home, and comes in off an 18-29 home loss to Philadelphia. Dallas sits at 6-8 with the same 2-5 road clip and is coming off a 17-34 home loss to the Chargers.
The last time they met, Dallas rolled 44-22. The market has tilted toward the visitors with a heavy moneyline price, but totals bettors will find this matchup especially interesting given how both defenses have leaked points in spots. Within the NFC East, Philadelphia holds serve at the top tier this season, Dallas sits in the chasing lane, and Washington is looking to spoil and build toward next year.
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Our betting predictions for Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Main Tip: Over 48.5 Total Points
1) Over 48.5 total points at -118 with Fanatics Sportsbook. This number matches the identity of both clubs right now: offenses that can pop and defenses that allow volatility late in games. Washington is averaging 20.6 points per game overall (23.7 at home) and allowing 26.9. Dallas is at 28.3 points per game and allowing 30.3. That’s a combined scoring profile near 49 points before we even factor in situational pace, short fields off miscues, or late-game urgency. My model makes the Over 48.5 hit about 54% of the time, which equates to roughly -118 fair odds. With Washington’s secondary in flux and Dallas still capable of chunk plays, the Over is my favorite play.
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Tip 2: Spread – Cowboys -3.0
2) Cowboys -3 at -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Dallas’ offense travels decently (26.4 points per game away from home), and Washington is just 2-5 at home with a 23.7 points-per-game clip there. The Commanders are allowing 27.6 per game in their own building. If Dallas gets to the high 20s, the math leans toward a cover. Washington has had bright flashes, but the Cowboys’ recent head-to-head edge (four wins in the last five meetings) and their ability to generate a few timely explosives provide a small but real edge against a short number. I project around a 55% cover probability for Dallas -3.
Tip 3: Moneyline — Dallas Cowboys
3) Moneyline — Cowboys at -250 (BetMGM Sportsbook). My fair line for the moneyline sits closer to Cowboys -194 (about 66%) vs. Commanders +194 (about 34%). The market is pricing Dallas closer to 71% implied at -250, with Washington at +220 (31-32% implied). If you’re playing the ML, I’d lean Dallas as the safer parlay piece rather than a straight bet at this price. If you like a value dart, Washington’s +220 is in the ballpark but not a must-bet—my number is a touch shorter than the posted underdog price.
Team Statistics: NFC East snapshot and current form
Washington Commanders (home) — under Dan Quinn
- Record and form: 4 wins, 11 losses; 1-4 in the last five; coming off an 18-29 home loss to Philadelphia. Home record sits at 2-5.
- Scoring profile: 309 points scored across 15 games equals 20.6 points per game; 404 allowed equals 26.9 allowed per game.
- Home splits: 166 points scored in seven home games equals 23.7 per game; 193 allowed equals 27.6 allowed per game.
- Situational note: Washington’s home offense has been noticeably better than its road offense, but the home defense has still given up nearly 4 TDs’ worth of points per game.
- Division context: In the NFC East, Washington trails Dallas and Philadelphia and is trying to halt losses while building momentum and developing core pieces.
- Style notes: Washington’s last five have skewed toward late-game swings. If they protect the ball and finish drives, they can keep pace at home, but the defense needs a clean afternoon against deep shots and in the red zone.
Dallas Cowboys (away) — under Brian Schottenheimer
- Record and form: 6 wins, 8 losses; 2-3 in the last five; coming off a 17-34 home loss to the Chargers. Away record is 2-5.
- Scoring profile: 424 points in 15 games equals 28.3 points per game; 454 allowed equals 30.3 allowed per game.
- Road splits: 185 points scored in seven road games equals 26.4 per game; 211 allowed equals 30.1 allowed per game.
- Situational note: Dallas can push pace and score in bunches, but defensive breakdowns have tilted several contests into track meets, especially away from home.
- Division context: In the NFC East pecking order, Dallas sits behind the division leader, trying to finish with authority and maintain momentum against a rival.
- Style notes: Explosive plays and quick-strike sequences are still part of the DNA. If pass pro holds up and the run game stays efficient on early downs, Dallas can control tempo and create separation.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
From recent reporting themes: Washington’s offense has leaned on QB mobility and explosive plays when the pocket muddies, with wideout Terry McLaurin flashing big-play ability in spots. Injuries have shuffled the lineup at times, including backfield and tackle concerns, which could stress consistency in pass protection. Special teams volatility has popped in this rivalry—blocked kicks and return swings have shown up in prior meetings, which always matters for totals. On Dallas’ side, the passing game has been sharp in spurts, and when the defense generates takeaways, the Cowboys’ offense cashes in with short fields. If Washington’s corners aren’t fully healthy, Dallas will test them vertically. Weather and travel look manageable; this one comes down to execution on money downs and whether Washington can finish drives in the red area.
Last direct match
Most recent meeting: Dallas 44–22 over Washington, with the Cowboys pulling away late and turning it into a high-scoring result.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Washington Commanders: 1 win, 4 losses.
- Dallas Cowboys: 2 wins, 3 losses.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
The matchup profile tilts toward points. Washington’s home scoring average (23.7) is stronger than its season baseline, Dallas’ road defense has been leaky at 30.1 allowed per game, and the rivalry has a track record of late swings that can juice totals. That’s why Over 48.5 is our primary play.
Against the number, Dallas -3 at -115 earns the nod. Washington’s defense at home has allowed 27.6 per game, and Dallas carries enough explosive capability to get into the high 20s. My projection puts the Cowboys covering slightly more often than not.
For the moneyline, Dallas is the rightful favorite, but it’s more parlay material than straight-bet value. If you insist on a side, I’d rather lay the field goal than pay the heavy ML premium; if you’re contrarian, Washington +220 isn’t far from my fair line but requires trust in sustained red-zone production.
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