Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs 12/25/2025
Christmas night football in the AFC West? Yes, please. Denver heads to Arrowhead with momentum, the division lead, and a clear path to postseason seeding, while Kansas City is scrambling at quarterback and trying to salvage pride in front of the home crowd. From a betting angle, this one sets up as a classic situational spot: a contender with urgency against a team dealing with injuries, inconsistency, and a rugged stretch of losses. Denver’s been the better outfit over the last month, and their road form has been steady. Kansas City has struggled to sustain drives and finish possessions, particularly against top-half defenses.
Let’s talk prices and probabilities. Market-wide numbers have Denver on the moneyline (roughly 89% implied) and Kansas City as the underdog. Our projection is slightly less extreme: Broncos win probability around 82%, Chiefs around 18%. The total sits near 36.5 with plenty of interest in whether Denver’s balanced pace and Kansas City’s home-field energy can push this over. The spread has floated to two scores, and that’s where this handicap gets interesting.
Let the pros guide your wagers. Our NFL expert picks break down matchups, trends, and value plays!
Our betting predictions: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Main Tip: Spread pick – Kansas City Chiefs +13.0
1) Spread pick: Kansas City Chiefs +13.0 at -115 with bet365 Sportsbook. Why it’s first: This is a classic buy-low on a big home dog in a rivalry game. Even with Kansas City’s quarterback uncertainty, Arrowhead is not a friendly place for visitors, and Andy Reid still marshals a structure that can keep the game within striking distance. Denver wins most scripts, but the Chiefs have enough defensive discipline to slow tempos and turn this into a possession game. Our projection makes this closer to +13.5, so there’s value in grabbing the two-score cushion at -115.
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Tip 2: Total – Over 36.5
2) Total: Over 36.5 at -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Short case: This total is suppressed by Kansas City’s recent offensive slide and the quarterback situation, but Denver has averaged just over 24 points per game this season and tends to play a clean, efficient brand on the road. The Chiefs’ home scoring average is higher than their road clip, and late-game variance in a rivalry can create extra possessions or short fields. Our model leans slightly over, projecting around 40–41 combined points, making Over 36.5 at -110 a modest edge.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Denver Broncos
3) Moneyline: Denver Broncos at BetMGM Sportsbook. Short case: Straight-up, Denver is the right side. The roster continuity, defensive form, and cleaner late-game execution all point Broncos. That said, this is more of a parlay anchor than a standalone bet for many bettors. Our projection (about 82% win chance) suggests the market is a bit rich, but we still expect Denver to finish the job. If you’re playing it solo, keep it small; if you’re building a holiday parlay, this is your stabilizer.
Team Statistics: Form and Matchup Context
Kansas City Chiefs (Home) — Grinding, but still tough at Arrowhead
- Division context: AFC West rivalry. Kansas City sits behind Denver in the division and is eliminated from playoff contention, but Arrowhead’s home-field advantage still matters.
- Recent form: 1 win and 4 losses across the last five, including a 9-26 road loss to Tennessee most recently.
- Win rate: 6-9 overall equates to a 40% win percentage. At home, they’re 5-3 (62.5%), which is a meaningful bump.
- Scoring profile: Kansas City averages 22.5 points per game overall (337 over 15 games) and allows 19.6 per game (294 over 15). At Arrowhead specifically, they average 23.6 points scored and 15.0 allowed per home game—evidence that their defense tightens up at home and the offense finds a bit more rhythm.
- Style notes: With quarterback uncertainty, expect a simplified passing tree and heavier reliance on easy throws and scripted first reads. The defense remains the better side right now—red-zone resistance and situational stops have kept them alive in spots even as the offense scuffles.
- Coaching: Andy Reid is still elite at sequencing plays. The challenge is execution, given the injuries and depth-chart churn.
Denver Broncos (Away) — Balanced, resilient, and road-reliable
- Division context: AFC West leaders with real seeding motivation.
- Recent form: 4 wins and 1 loss in the last five; last game was a 20-34 home loss to Jacksonville, but Denver’s broader trend remains strong.
- Win rate: 12-3 overall equals an 80% win percentage. On the road, they’re 5-2 (71.4%), so there’s no drop-off leaving altitude.
- Scoring profile: Denver averages 24.1 points per game (362/15) and allows 19.7 per game (295/15). On the road, the Broncos post 21.6 points per game and give up 19.7—lower variance, a touch more conservative, and still efficient.
- Personnel notes: Bo Nix’s season passing yardage translates to roughly 182.8 passing yards per game. Courtland Sutton’s workload equals about 3.3 receptions and 47.4 receiving yards per game, with a strong yards-per-catch rate near 14.2—he remains a chains-mover and red-zone option. Edge presence Nik Bonitto’s production works out to about 0.7 sacks per game, offering steady heat off the edge.
- Identity: Denver plays to a measured tempo, wins field position, and leans into late-game composure. That’s been their formula in close contests.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Reports indicate Kansas City’s quarterback room is in crisis: Patrick Mahomes is out for the season, Gardner Minshew suffered a knee injury, and third-stringer Chris Oladokun is expected to start. Multiple key contributors are banged up, and Jawaan Taylor landed on IR. That shifts even more pressure to Andy Reid’s script and the Chiefs’ defense. On Denver’s side, the Week 16 loss stung, but they’ve been composed in one-score games all season and remain motivated for AFC West positioning. Arrowhead on Christmas is a unique stage—home crowd noise, holiday spotlight, and national attention. Weather can always matter in late December in Kansas City, and the short week of travel tilts prep time to the home side. Market context: Broncos are heavy favorites; total sits in the high 30s due to the Chiefs’ offensive uncertainty.
Last direct match
The last head-to-head ended 22-19 with a home win for Denver. Tight, physical, and decided late—very AFC West.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Kansas City: 1 win, 4 losses.
- Denver: 4 wins, 1 loss.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re playing the Chiefs +13.0 at -110 as our lead angle. Two-score cushions at Arrowhead in a rivalry game are hard to pass up, even with the quarterback injuries. Game flow leans to a controlled script where Kansas City’s defense and home splits (allowing only about 15.0 per game at Arrowhead) keep this inside the number.
For the total, Over 36.5 at -110 gets our nod. Denver’s offense averages just over 24 per game, and the Chiefs’ home scoring is better than their road clip. One or two short fields could be enough to push this into the high 30s.
Moneyline, we project Denver to win—so Broncos at -833 is the call if you need a safe anchor. It’s pricey on its own, but it matches the most likely outcome. Bottom line: Split your stake across Chiefs +13.0, Over 36.5, and Broncos ML. We get cushion on the spread, a modest edge on the total, and align with the rightful winner on the moneyline.
