Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles 10/05/2025
Week 5 brings a tasty cross-conference tilt at Lincoln Financial Field as the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles welcome the Denver Broncos to South Philly. From a betting angle, this one checks a lot of boxes: an elite home team with a steady quarterback who protects the ball, a stingy road underdog that has flashed high-end defense, and travel dynamics that tilt toward the hosts. Philadelphia has been winning on rhythm, structure, and composure, and Nick Sirianni’s crew has backed it up at home. Through four weeks, the Eagles average right at 27 points per game and concede about 22, with an even stronger 28.5 at home and 23 allowed in the building. Denver under Sean Payton clocks in at 24 points per game, but the calling card has been defense: roughly 16.8 allowed per game overall. The trouble for the Broncos is that those road splits aren’t nearly as tight; they’ve allowed 26 away from Denver.
Layer in the schedule: Denver is coming off a Monday night showing and has to trek to the East Coast on a short week, while Philly gets a full workweek at home. Jalen Hurts may not be piling up passing yards early, but he’s providing a clean sheet and a reliable rushing floor. That mix—plus the Eagles’ home comfort—meets a Broncos team that’s still searching for that first road breakthrough. The market likes the Birds by about a field goal and change, and given the matchup and spot, it’s hard to argue with Philadelphia’s path to a win in a lower-scoring, possession-by-possession game.
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Our betting predictions for the match Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Main Tip: Moneyline – PHI Eagles to Win
Our primary betting prediction (Moneyline): Philadelphia to win on the moneyline at DraftKings, priced favorably. The Eagles have handled their business at home, and Sirianni’s group comes in with a balanced profile—around 27 per game on offense, a defense that tightens situationally, and a quarterback who has avoided turnovers. Denver’s defense travels, but the short week and early kickoff are tough. If you don’t want to sweat the number, take Philly to win outright at best odds.
Tip 2: Totals – Under 44.5 Points
Our second betting tip (Totals): Under 44.5 points at best price -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Denver’s defense has allowed roughly 16.8 per game overall, and Philadelphia’s offense has methodically leaned on the run game and controlled tempo. The Broncos have stayed under in most spots because their defense shortens games; Philly’s defense, even with some injuries, still leverages pressure and red-zone discipline. Add in the early window, travel for the Broncos, and two coaching staffs comfortable playing the field-position game—Under 44.5 at -115 with BetMGM makes sense.
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Tip 3: Denver Broncos +4.0 Spread
Our final prediction (Spread): Denver Broncos +4.0 at best price -115 at BetMGM. Even if you expect Philadelphia to pull this out, Denver’s defense gives them a puncher’s chance to keep this inside a field goal. The Broncos’ offense has been steadier of late, and Sean Payton’s script work early can quiet a road crowd. Philly’s injuries up front and at tight end could shave some efficiency. With both teams leaning on the ground and drives chewing the clock, the +4.0 at -115 provides a valuable cushion.
Team news
- Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert (knee) didn’t practice midweek and is a name to monitor; his red-zone presence is key. Right tackle Lane Johnson (shoulder) was limited and trending to give it a go, which matters a ton against Denver’s rush. Jalen Carter (shoulder) may play through it. Linebacker Nakobe Dean was a limited returnee and could factor into the middle. On the edge, depth is thinner with Nolan Smith on injured reserve.
- Denver Broncos: Tight end Nate Adkins was held out due to concussion protocol. Rookie linebacker Jonah Elliss (thumb) and wideout Marvin Mims Jr. (hip/ankle) were limited. Edge Nik Bonitto (wrist) and linebacker Alex Singleton (thumb) practiced fully, which stabilizes the second level. Keep an eye on the final injury designations—Denver’s special teams and WR depth are especially sensitive to late-week changes.
Philadelphia Eagles performance check
Nick Sirianni’s Eagles are 4-0 and, more importantly, efficient. Their offense is averaging around 27 points per game, with the home split nudging just above 28. The ground game, quarterback runs included, sets the tempo and keeps Jalen Hurts on schedule. He’s been cautious with the ball through the first month, and his legs extend drives when the passing lanes tighten. Philly’s defense has allowed about 22 per game, and while splash plays have ebbed and flowed, red-zone execution has kept them ahead on the scoreboard.
The last outing—a 31-25 win at Tampa—showcased the palette. Hurts didn’t need a track meet with the passing game; he used his mobility to keep chains moving and got timely finishes from Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert in the red area. If Lane Johnson is near full strength, Philadelphia’s protection plan improves against a Denver front that wants to wreck with speed. Even with a banged-up tight end room, the Eagles can still lean on RPOs and two-back looks to create favorable boxes and isolate matchups on the perimeter.
How is the current performance of the Denver Broncos
Sean Payton’s Broncos are sitting at 2-2 and trending upward after a 28-3 demolition of the Bengals. Denver’s offense checks in at roughly 24 points per game, and the defense has been the driver, allowing just about 16.8 per outing overall. The rub is the road split: away from home, they’ve permitted around 26, a sign that the pass rush and tackling haven’t traveled quite as well. Still, the front seven is active and deep, and Payton’s opening scripts have helped stabilize the offense early.
Bo Nix is coming off his first 300-yard passing day as a pro, and while you don’t buy the whole deal off one performance, you can see the rhythm developing with quick-game timing and selective shots. Marvin Mims Jr., if healthy, provides the explosive element, while the backs give Payton the flexibility to stay ahead of the sticks. Special teams have been a quiet plus, but penalties in space and third-and-medium execution remain swing areas—especially on the road in a loud environment like the Linc.
Team Statistics
- – Scoring profile (per game): Eagles 27.0 scored and 22.0 allowed; Broncos 24.0 scored and 16.8 allowed.
- – Splits: Eagles at home average 28.5 scored and 23.0 allowed. The Broncos on the road average 24.0 points scored and 26.0 points allowed.
- – Pace and style: Philadelphia’s offense leans into controlled tempo, QB runs, and situational efficiency. Denver’s defense compresses the field and drives the tempo downward, but away from Denver, the tackling and explosives prevention dip slightly.
- – Market tendencies: The Broncos have been a bumpy ATS ride early, but their defensive baseline has pushed totals lower. The Eagles have been more coin-flip ATS at home while still winning straight up.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Quarterbacks: Jalen Hurts has limited risk, used his legs strategically, and kept Philadelphia on schedule. The passing yardage has been modest—around the high-100s or less at times—but the decision-making has been clean. Bo Nix just put together his most complete Sunday, featuring quick-strike accuracy and enough mobility to handle pressure.
- – Skill talent: Saquon Barkley’s short-area juice helps Philly stay ahead of schedule. If Dallas Goedert can suit up, his red-zone role matters; if not, Philly will pivot to more 11 personnel with slot leverage. Denver’s Marvin Mims Jr. brings speed that stresses safeties and can flip a field in one snap.
- – Trenches: Lane Johnson’s availability is central—if he’s close to full go, Philadelphia’s right edge becomes a fortress. Denver’s edge duo rotates heat and has the bend to challenge even elite tackles.
- – Defense: Denver’s per-game scoring defense is top-tier on paper; Philly’s offense will test it with a heavy run rate and gap schemes that force linebackers to fit cleanly. Philly’s front, when healthy, overwhelms with interior pressure—Jalen Carter’s presence, even at less than 100%, can change protections.
- – External: Early October in Philly usually means mild temps and manageable wind, favorable to both ground games. Denver travels on a short week after MNF; that tends to show up in second-half stamina, especially in the trenches and special teams coverage.
Last direct match Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos
The last head-to-head meeting finished 30-13 in favor of Philadelphia on the road. Different season, different context, but the Eagles leveraged defense and methodical offense to control that game. Recent series form tilts slightly Eagles, with Philly taking three of the last five between the teams.
Performance last 5 matches
- – Philadelphia Eagles: 5 wins, 0 losses. Consistent, composed, and finishing games strong.
- – Denver Broncos: 3 wins, 2 losses. Trending better the last two weeks with defensive buy-in and improved offensive timing.
Last match results Philadelphia Eagles and the Denver Broncos
- – Eagles: 31-25 road win over the Buccaneers, a balanced performance highlighted by efficient red-zone work and Hurts’ ground presence.
- – Broncos: 28-3 home win against the Bengals, a defensive statement with the offense capitalizing on short fields and scripted success.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This shapes up like a classic “Eagles win, Broncos hang” script. Philadelphia has the home edge, cleaner travel, and a better late-game profile. Denver carries a defense capable of muddying the pace and keeping it within one score. That’s why our three picks line up this way: take the Eagles moneyline to anchor your card, play the Under 44.5 at -115 in a game that profiles as grindy, and grab Denver +4.0 at -115 for spread value if the number holds. It’s a tight, physical Week 5 clash with Philly’s balance winning out—just not by much.
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