Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals 10/05/2025

It’s Week 5 in the NFL, and we’ve got a cross-conference tilt with real juice for bettors and fans alike: Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, October 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ET at Paycor Stadium (Match ID: 11091353). Detroit rolls in at 3-1 with the look of a team that hasn’t cooled off much since last year’s NFC North title run. The Lions are averaging 34.3 points per game through four weeks while allowing 22.0, a margin that travels pretty well. They’ve split their road slate so far, scoring 25.5 points per game away from home.

Cincinnati, at 2-2, is navigating life without Joe Burrow, which obviously changes the ceiling and the complexion of Zac Taylor’s offense. The Bengals are averaging 15.3 points per game and allowing 29.8, but that’s split: they’ve been far more lively in their lone home outing (31.0 points) than on the road. This is Browning’s show for now, with Ja’Marr Chase in rhythm and a crowd that can punch above its weight on late Sunday windows.

From a betting angle, you’ve got three levers to consider: the moneyline, the total, and the spread. Detroit brings a top-end offense even when the pace slows, and Cincinnati’s defense has sprung leaks in high-leverage spots. Can the Bengals hang inside the number at home? Can the Lions’ offense drag this total into a higher-scoring range? Let’s dig in like a Sunday morning notebook and find our edges.

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Our betting predictions for the match Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals

Main Tip: Spread – Cincinnati Bengals +10.5

Our primary betting prediction — Spread: Cincinnati Bengals +10.5 at -115 with Fanatics. This is a classic spot where the market leans hard toward a top-10 offense, but the home dog with a capable QB2 can muddy the picture. Cincinnati has averaged 31.0 points in its lone home game and tends to play scrappier at Paycor. Detroit’s road offense (25.5 points per game) isn’t the fireworks show you get in Detroit. With an energized crowd and a quick game plan for Jake Browning, Bengals +10.5 is live.

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Tip 2: Game Total – Over 48.5

Our secondary betting tip — Total: Over 48.5 at -110 Fanatics Sportsbook. The math supports the Over. Detroit is averaging 34.3 points per game and yielding 22.0; Cincinnati is at 15.3 for and 29.8 against. Put that together, and you’re looking at an expected range that nudges the high 40s to low 50s with Detroit’s explosive plays as the headliner. If the Bengals contribute with a couple of sustained drives or one short field, this total has room to breathe past the midline.

Tip 3: Moneyline – Detroit Lions to Win

Our final prediction — Moneyline: Detroit Lions at favorable odds with bet365. The safest moneyline side here is Detroit. Jared Goff’s operation travels, and Dan Campbell’s bunch has been consistent in situational football. Cincinnati can keep this tight for stretches—especially at home—but over 60 minutes, Detroit’s efficiency on third down and red zone chances should tell the tale. As a parlay anchor or a conservative straight play, Lions ML fits the profile.

Team news

For Detroit, Dan Campbell’s club enters with momentum and some bumps in the secondary. Reports around the league note cornerback depth concerns, with players like Kerby Joseph working back from in-game knocks and linebacker Alex Anzalone logging heavy snaps despite a recent practice cap. Edge Marcus Davenport has been involved despite limited work during the week. The Lions’ front has teeth, and when they rotate fresh, the pass rush can tilt possessions.

For Cincinnati, Zac Taylor confirmed this has been Jake Browning’s huddle since Joe Burrow landed on injured reserve with a significant toe injury. Browning’s prior stretch as a starter showcased enough command to keep the offense functional, especially leaning into Chase-heavy concepts and run/pass balance. Brett Rypien has been elevated as a backup. The Bengals’ O-line has been under a microscope; expect additional chip help and quick hitters to mitigate the rush.

Cincinnati Bengals performance check

Zac Taylor’s Bengals are 2-2 heading into this one, and the story splits along venue lines. They’ve averaged 31.0 points in the one home game, and 10.0 points per game away, which suggests the Paycor crowd matters—especially for cadence, protection checks, and confidence throws to Ja’Marr Chase. Defensively, Cincinnati is allowing 29.8 points per game overall, but only 27.0 at home so far.

The recent form is choppy: 2 wins, 3 losses in their last five across all competitions, including a 28-3 road loss in Denver, where the offense struggled to string first downs and the defense was on the field too long. Still, there were flashes against Jacksonville—Browning has had games where he’s efficient in the intermediate space, and when Chase gets double-digit targets, the entire structure looks more settled. Key for Sunday: stay on schedule, keep third downs manageable, and protect the football.

How is the current performance of the Detroit Lions

Dan Campbell’s Lions look the part at 3-1. The offense is averaging 34.3 points per game, and the defense is giving up 22.0, a healthy +12.3 margin that tells the story of complementary football. At home, Detroit has been even more explosive; away, they’ve averaged 25.5—still strong, but it makes sense that the Lions lean into a slightly tighter game script on the road.

In their last five, Detroit is 3-2, including a comprehensive 34-10 home win over Cleveland. Goff has been crisp underneath with select shot plays—strike early on scripted drives, then keep the chains moving. Defensively, when Detroit gets into third-and-medium, their rush games and simulated pressures tend to win. The biggest emphasis here: handle early noise from the crowd, avoid the negative play, and trust the run/pass balance to get into the high 20s or low 30s.

Team Statistics

• – Scoring averages this season: – Detroit: 34.3 points per game scored; 22.0 points per game allowed. Road scoring: 25.5; road points allowed: 28.5.
• – Cincinnati: 15.3 points per game scored; 29.8 points per game allowed. Home scoring: 31.0; home points allowed: 27.0. Away scoring: 10.0; away allowed: 30.7.

• Momentum snapshots:
  • Detroit is riding a +12.3 average point differential through four games.
  • Cincinnati sits at a -14.5 differential, but the home sample shows they can manufacture offense at Paycor.
• Situational note:
  • Detroit’s ability to start fast has been a theme; Cincinnati’s best shot is a controlled tempo and red-zone conversion.

Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors

• – Quarterbacks: With Joe Burrow sidelined, Jake Browning gets the nod. In prior starting action, he’s shown he can operate on time, shuffle protections, and get Chase involved early. Expect quick-game concepts, RPO looks, and designed throws that avoid long-developing reads against Detroit’s rush. – Playmakers: Ja’Marr Chase recently posted a monster outing (14 catches, 165 yards, a score), reminding everyone that he can tilt coverage on his own. Detroit should bracket him on key downs and force the Bengals’ complementary options to win.
• – Lions’ offensive rhythm: Jared Goff has been in rhythm on early downs, and Detroit’s last three-week scoring clip sits around 41.3 points per game on average—evidence that Ben Johnson’s sequencing is humming. – Protection vs. pressure: The Bengals’ pass-blocking metrics have lagged, and Detroit’s edge group plus games up front can stress that. Expect Cincinnati to deploy extra protection on obvious passing downs.
• – Coaching edges: Dan Campbell’s aggression in fourth-down spots can extend drives. Zac Taylor’s in-game adjustments have helped steady Browning-led series—especially at home, where the cadence and communication are cleaner.

Last direct match Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

The last meeting between these franchises came on October 17, 2021, when Cincinnati won 34-11 in Detroit. Different quarterbacks, different context, but the memory is useful: the Bengals leaned on balance and timely takeaways. Detroit is a very different operation now—more efficient on offense and stingier in situational defense—so don’t over-index on that result. Still, the Bengals won’t be intimidated by the uniform across the sideline.

Performance last 5 matches

• – Cincinnati Bengals: 2 wins, 3 losses across their last five, a form line that reflects inconsistency, especially away from home.
• – Detroit Lions: 3 wins, 2 losses across their last five, generally steady with spikes of high-end scoring.

Last match results

• – Cincinnati Bengals: 3-28 road loss at the Denver Broncos. The offense struggled to sustain drives, and the defense wore down late.
• – Detroit Lions: 34-10 home win over the Cleveland Browns. Detroit controlled the tempo, mixed in explosives, and stepped on the gas in the second half.

Team news

• – Bengals: Joe Burrow remains on injured reserve with a toe injury; Jake Browning starts, Brett Rypien backs up. Expect plenty of Chase, plus designed elements to keep the ball out quickly. The defense needs an early stand to keep the crowd in it.
• – Lions: Secondary health is worth monitoring with players working through practice limitations. Linebacker Alex Anzalone logged heavy snaps last week. Edge Marcus Davenport is active in the rotation. Dan Campbell continues to lean on a physical identity that travels.

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TrustnBet Final Thoughts

We’re leaning home dog on the spread, Over on the total, and Lions on the moneyline. Cincinnati at +10.5 makes sense because Paycor stabilizes this offense, and Browning can run the plan. The Over 48.5 is supported by Detroit’s explosive scoring rate and the likelihood of a couple of short-field chances created by pressure or special teams. And for the win-only market, Detroit’s overall quality makes the moneyline a strong, safe play. Final card: Bengals +10.5 at -115, Over 48.5 at -110, Lions ML.