Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears 01/10/2026
Saturday night football at Soldier Field with playoff juice? Sign me up. Green Bay heads to Chicago on the back of a tough skid, while the Bears ride momentum from that wild overtime win in this rivalry a couple of weeks back. For bettors, the recent form line is pretty clear: Chicago is 2-3 in its last five, Green Bay is 1-4, and both just took losses in their regular-season finales (Bears 16-19 vs. Detroit, Packers 3-16 at Minnesota).
Layer in injuries on both sides—Chicago’s top two wideouts are sidelined, Green Bay’s offensive line is reshuffling at right tackle, and several skill guys are banged up—and we get a grind-it-out, field-position-type postseason game that likely turns on turnovers and red-zone execution. That’s Chicago’s calling card under coach Ben Johnson: an aggressive, takeaway-driven defense and a run game that can shorten the night. The Packers have the better historical handle in this rivalry, but with the Bears at home, the path to a steady Bears cover and a lower-scoring script looks very real.
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Our betting predictions: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Main Tip: Total Under 42.5 Points
1) Total Under 42.5 (play to 41.5): Projected under script with injuries to the Bears’ WR corps and Green Bay’s protection concerns limiting explosives. Soldier Field in January typically compresses offenses, and Chicago’s identity under Ben Johnson is to lean on takeaways and shorten games. I project a 58% chance this stays under, which makes a fair price around -140 at DraftKings. Betting tip: take the Under pregame and consider adding a little more live if the first quarter features a lot of runs and punts.
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Tip 2: Chicago Bears Moneyline
2) Bears moneyline: Home field, turnover edge, and the Packers’ recent offensive slide push this slightly toward Chicago. The Bears are undefeated this season when they generate multiple takeaways and have been elite at closing tight fourth quarters. My model makes Chicago around 57% to win outright, fair ML. If you like Green Bay, their fair price at 43%—but with their right-tackle flux and a banged-up skill group, I lean toward Chicago.
Tip 3: Spread – Chicago Bears -2.5
3) Bears -2.5 against the spread (play to -3): With the Bears’ defense creating about 1.8 takeaways per game and Green Bay trending down in EPA per play over the past month, a one-score win at home is a reasonable expectation. I’ve got a 54% chance the Bears cover -2.5, fair price near -120 at DraftKings. The key is turnover margin: Chicago is 9-0 when it nabs multiple takeaways. If they get two or more again, they likely cover.
Team Statistics: Where the Bears’ defense sets the tone, and Green Bay seeks answers
Chicago Bears (home) — current form snapshot:
- Recent results: 2 wins, 3 losses in their last five, including a 16-19 home loss to the Lions last time out. That’s a 40% win rate across that stretch.
- Offense: With Caleb Williams at the controls, Chicago’s passing game has settled in around the mid-200s in yards per game; explosive shots are less frequent without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, so expect a balanced plan. On the ground, D’Andre Swift has averaged roughly 55 rushing yards per game this season, and rookie Kyle Monangai has averaged around 40 rushing yards per game—two capable chain-movers who help keep the sticks manageable.
- Defense: This group wins on takeaways and coverage. Chicago leads the league in interceptions and has been averaging about 1.8 total takeaways per outing. They’re 9-0 when creating multiple turnovers and just 1-4 when they fail to do so—so the entire game script revolves around that ball-hawking identity.
- Division/Playoff context: In the NFC North, the Bears closed strong enough to bag home-field for this wild card spot, and they bring a No. 2 seed profile to a rivalry matchup they split in the regular season. They’re built to win in January: bend structure, take the ball away, and grind the clock.
Green Bay Packers (away) — current form snapshot:
- Recent results: 1 win, 4 losses in their last five; that’s a 20% win rate, with the latest a 3-16 road loss to Minnesota. Offensively, they’ve hit a rough patch.
- Offense: Jordan Love is averaging about 236 passing yards per game, so the aerial production is there, but protection is the worry. Right tackle has been a revolving door with injuries and new faces auditioning. In the run game, Josh Jacobs has averaged just north of 50 rushing yards per game, a useful baseline, but his recent health status has to be monitored heading in. Without a fully functional right side, play-action and timing routes could be compressed.
- Defense: The Packers’ defense has generally been steady, allowing around 20.1 points per game—top-10 territory. Against both run and pass they’ve profiled as top-10 per the season-long ranks, which is no small thing in January. The pass rush has been productive overall, but they’re missing a top edge rusher due to a season-ending knee injury, which reduces the ceiling of their pressure packages.
- Division/Playoff context: The Packers fought through a rollercoaster NFC North chase and slide into the postseason looking to reboot on the road. When they protect the football (zero giveaways), they’ve been lights-out; multiple turnovers, and results slide hard in the wrong direction.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Montez Sweat vs. Jordan Love is the matchup to circle. If Sweat and the Bears’ front win early downs, Chicago’s secondary can sit on routes and hunt tips—this team averages nearly two takeaways a game. The Packers’ offense, by contrast, has stark splits: they’re winless when giving it away multiple times and excellent when protecting it. Chicago’s receivers are thin without Odunze and Burden III, so expect Ben Johnson to lean on Swift/Monangai and tight end Cole Kmet (if active) for chain-moving volume. Green Bay’s right-tackle shuffle is a real storyline in the cold and wind at Soldier Field. Player availability will matter late: Jacobs and Christian Watson being closer to full speed would lift Green Bay’s ceiling; if they’re limited, it’s a narrower path.
Last direct match
These teams split the regular-season series: Green Bay 28-21 at Lambeau, then Chicago 22-16 in overtime at Soldier Field—6-0 at the end of regulation before Caleb Williams hit DJ Moore for the walk-off.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Chicago Bears: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Green Bay Packers: 1 win, 4 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This has the look and feel of a classic Soldier Field playoff grinder. Chicago’s defense is built for January, taking the ball away at a high clip and riding a run-first blueprint that keeps their defense fresh. Green Bay, meanwhile, needs clean pockets and timely explosives to flip this, but the right-tackle situation plus some dinged-up skill players raise real questions about sustained drives.
That’s why our card centers on a lower-scoring script: Under 42.5 is our top play, with about a 58% edge and fair odds. From there, we’re backing the Bears on the moneyline at a 57% win probability (fair ML), leaning into home field, defensive takeaways, and late-game composure. Finally, Bears -2.5 is a modest spread look at about 54% to cover, a fair price. If the turnover margin goes Chicago’s way—as their season-long profile suggests—it should be just enough to cash the Under and nudge the Bears across the line.
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