Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears 12/20/2025
Saturday night at Soldier Field in late December? That’s classic NFC North ball with a betting twist. Green Bay rolls into Chicago for Week 16 on December 20, 2025 (8:20 p.m. ET), and this one has the feel of a playoff-level litmus test for both teams. The numbers say these squads are peaking at the right time: Chicago is 10-4 overall with a strong 5-1 home mark, while Green Bay is 9-4 and fully comfortable traveling with a 4-2 road record. The recent form backs it up too—both sides are 4-1 over their last five, with the Bears coming off a statement home win (31-3 vs. Cleveland) and the Packers taking a road loss at Denver (26-34).
Sportsbooks reflect that razor-thin margin. On the moneyline, you’ll find Chicago as the underdog and Green Bay as favorites. Total traders are hanging 46.5 with a good market price on the Over. And with the Bears catching +3.5, this matchup neatly fits the profile of a tight divisional game where a field goal could swing your ticket. Factor in Soldier Field’s winter bite and the rivalry edge, and we’ve got ourselves a prime-time spot where execution in the fourth quarter—and situational coaching—likely calls the winner.
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Our betting predictions for Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Main Tip: Spread – Chicago Bears +3.5
1) Spread: Chicago Bears +3.5 at -118 with bet365 Sportsbook (projected 54–56% cover probability). Here’s where the value shows up. Chicago has been reliable at home (5-1) and enters with momentum after that comprehensive win vs. Cleveland. Green Bay’s offense can punch back, but Chicago, under head coach Ben Johnson, has tightened late-game decision-making and leaned into situational football. With the hook on the field goal, the Bears can keep this inside a one-score game, even if they’re trading shots in the fourth. Tip: Take the points at -118 with bet365.
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Tip 2: Total – Over 46.5
2) Total: Over 46.5 at -110 with bet365 (projected 52% probability). This one profiles as a late-season Over when drives turn into red-zone chances rather than punts. Green Bay’s offense generally travels, and Chicago’s scoring rhythm at home has clicked. Winter conditions can mean heavier personnel, but that can boost explosive plays off play-action. Both staffs have leaned into aggressive fourth-down math when it matters. Tip: Over 46.5 at -110 with bet365.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Green Bay Packers
3) Moneyline: Green Bay Packers at attractive odds with DraftKings (projected 55% win probability). This is a narrow lean toward experience in a rivalry spot. Matt LaFleur’s Packers have owned the recent series, and while Chicago’s trajectory is undeniably positive, Green Bay’s situational football—two-minute drill, end-of-half management—has been a separator in these moments. If you’d rather chase plus money, the Bears are live at home. Tip: Packers ML (slight edge).
Team Statistics: Chicago’s home form vs. Green Bay’s road toughness
Chicago Bears (Home team)
- Records and trends: 10-4 overall (about a 71% win rate) and 4-1 in their last five. The 5-1 home mark (roughly 83%) is the headliner and directly relevant for this spot at Soldier Field. Their last result—a 31-3 home win over Cleveland—was the kind of complete performance that travels to divisional games, even if this one stays tighter.
- Offense/defense outlook: Without diving into totals, Chicago’s offensive balance has sharpened, setting up manageable third downs and capitalizing on scripted sequences. The defense just posted a dominant outing at home, swarming to the ball and creating negative plays.
- Division context: In the NFC North, form matters in December. The Bears have put themselves in a position to make noise in the divisional race with a strong home profile.
- Coaching: Ben Johnson has the offense structured around quarterback-friendly reads and tempo changes. That approach pairs well with Chicago’s recent efficiency, especially at home.
- Situational tells: Red-zone composure and special teams consistency have improved, and at this time of year, those edges can flip spreads and totals.
Green Bay Packers (Away team)
- Records and trends: 9-4 overall (about a 69% win rate) and 4-2 away (roughly 67%). Also, 4-1 over their last five, though they’re coming in off a road loss at Denver (26-34). This team responds well after a loss, and the road success is the kind of profile you want in December.
- Offense/defense outlook: The attack remains versatile with layered route concepts and an ability to lean on the ground when the weather tightens. The defense is opportunistic and typically finds a takeaway or two in high-leverage moments.
- Division context: In the NFC North, Green Bay’s recent head-to-head success is a real factor. Divisional tiebreakers often come down to these late-season meetings, and the Packers have been comfortable in this rivalry setting.
- Coaching: Matt LaFleur has been steady and creative in dialing up high-percentage throws early to settle his quarterback and set up chunk plays in the second half.
- Situational tells: Green Bay’s two-minute offense and end-of-half management are consistently clean, which helps in one-score games.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Recent reporting has pointed to a few swing factors: Jordan Love’s form in this rivalry has generally been strong, while Chicago’s Caleb Williams has made steady strides with pocket management and off-script creation. For Green Bay, eye the status and workload for Josh Jacobs; any limitation would tilt play-calling. Chicago’s secondary depth and left guard situation have been notable storylines, and coach Ben Johnson’s adjustments have mitigated pressure in key spots. On the Packers’ side, Matt LaFleur’s track record in this matchup is a tangible edge. Weather matters: expect icy conditions hovering near the low teens, which favors physical fronts, condensed formations, and play-action shot plays. Net-net, execution under the lights and the turnover battle should define the winner more than raw yardage totals.
Last direct match
Green Bay won the most recent head-to-head 28-21 at home, continuing a strong modern run in this rivalry.
Performance last 5 Matches
Both teams are 4-1 across their last five games in all competitions, with Chicago’s most recent outing a dominant home win and Green Bay’s a competitive road loss.
Looking for value on Sunday’s slate? Explore NFL betting odds and key matchup trends!
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re splitting hairs between two well-matched rivals, so we’re leaning into the clearest edges: Spread: Bears +3.5 at -115. Chicago’s home form and late-game resilience under Ben Johnson justify the hook. Even if Green Bay edges the result, the spread protection fits the rivalry profile. Total: Over 46.5 at -110. The combination of aggressive play-calling, red-zone efficiency, and the potential for explosive play-action shots outweighs the cold-weather downgrade. Moneyline: Packers at -125. In a tight coin flip, Green Bay’s situational stability and recent head-to-head success nudge this toward the visitors. If you prefer plus money, Bears +110 is a defensible home swing.
Why these three? The spread captures Chicago’s home strength with a critical margin-of-error. The Over aligns with how both staffs are calling games late in the season. And the moneyline nod to Green Bay acknowledges their execution edge in close finishes. Three different angles, each rooted in matchup realities—and a rivalry that rarely disappoints in prime time.
