Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys 09/28/2025
Sunday Night Football at AT&T Stadium? That’s must-see TV. The Cowboys welcome the Packers in Week 4, and there’s plenty for bettors to chew on after the opening stretch. Dallas, under Brian Schottenheimer, comes in off a 31-14 loss in Chicago, where rookie QB Caleb Williams lit them up for four touchdown passes. To make matters worse, CeeDee Lamb left with a lower-leg injury, and rookie center Cooper Beebe will miss for a couple of weeks with a lateral ankle sprain and small foot fracture, putting even more strain on Dak Prescott and an offense already searching for rhythm.
Green Bay, coached by Matt LaFleur, isn’t exactly humming either. The Packers arrive still reeling from a 13-10 setback in Cleveland, decided on a 55-yard field goal as time expired. After jumping to a 10-0 lead, they unraveled with a Jordan Love interception, a blocked field goal attempt, and a staggering 14 penalties for 75 yards. Offensively, they’re adjusting without top receiver Jayden Reed, now on IR after clavicle and foot surgeries that will sideline him for a while. That forces Love to lean on a reshuffled group of pass-catchers. Defensively, they do get help: Micah Parsons, who had been nursing a back sprain, has been cleared from the injury report and is set to play.
Both teams limp into this NFC clash with key questions hanging over them. Dallas wants to push the pace and take advantage of open vertical shots, but injuries are piling up. Green Bay needs to cut down on mistakes and find answers without its top playmaker. Classic NFC chess match under the primetime lights in Arlington — and one bettor will want circled.
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Our betting predictions for the match Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread pick (first tip): Green Bay Packers -6
This sets up as a field position and execution game. Green Bay’s defense is allowing 13.7 points per game and has been excellent at limiting explosives, which matters against a Dallas offense averaging 30.0, but still a bit inconsistent drive to drive. If the Packers protect the ball and win third down, a one-score number is within range. Projection models that weigh early-season efficiency give Green Bay a lean in the 6-to-7 range. Tip: Packers -6 at -115 with Caesars Sportsbook.
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Moneyline pick (second tip): Packers ML
The market has made its statement: Green Bay sits at very favorable odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, with Dallas at a home underdog priced very tempting. That aligns with matchup data—LaFleur’s group is steadier on defense early, and the recent head-to-head trend favors Green Bay. For parlay anchors or conservative singles, Packers ML is a logical play. If you like Dallas, the moneyline price is attractive, but the floor belongs to Green Bay. Tip: Packers ML best odds with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Game totals pick (third tip): Under 47.5 points
Dallas games are averaging a combined 60.5 points, while Green Bay games are averaging 35.0. Split the difference, and you hover right under 48.0. With Green Bay’s defense playing disciplined, and Dallas more likely to respect field position after a 14-31 loss at Chicago, the under checks out. If the Packers control tempo and shrink possessions, it should cap the ceiling. Tip: Under 47.5 points at -110 with BetMGM.
Team news
Both coaching staffs know this one has playoff tiebreaker implications down the line in the NFC. Schottenheimer’s Cowboys enter 1-1 and unbeaten at home; LaFleur’s Packers have banked early wins and are trying to bounce back from a tight road loss. No significant new injury disclosures were highlighted in the lead-up here, but watch late-week reports for trench depth and secondary status—those will swing totals and spreads more than skill-position headlines.
Dallas Cowboys performance check
Brian Schottenheimer’s group is 1-1 and has put up 30.0 points per game while conceding 30.5 through two. At home, Dallas is 1-0 and typically leans into tempo with crowd energy, which helps the pass rush time the snap and the offense push vertical routes. The recent form shows a 2-3 stretch across the last five overall, capped by that 14-31 road loss to Chicago, where execution stalled in the red area and the defense gave up chunk plays.
The Cowboys’ identity remains explosive offense with a defense that needs cleaner tackling and better leverage on the perimeter. If they avoid giveaways and minimize penalties, they’re right there. In the NFC East, it’s about stacking wins inside the division race—no single table in the NFL—so holding serve at home is crucial with the 17-game slate and a deep field vying for the seven NFC playoff slots.
How is the current performance of the Green Bay Packers
Matt LaFleur’s Packers are built to travel: organized, efficient, and stingy. They’ve opened with two wins and one loss, and over three games average 21.3 points on offense while allowing only 13.7—an early-season formula that’s made them a tough out. Across the last five, Green Bay is 4-1, despite the latest 10-13 road loss in a grinder. That game fit their profile: limited possessions, trust the defense, take the high-percentage throw, and rely on tackling fundamentals to finish.
In the NFC North, it’s a marathon with weekly adjustments, not a global table of 32—banking road resilience in September pays off in December. If Green Bay stays ahead of the chains and leans on situational football (third down and red zone), it’s the template that’s given Dallas problems in recent meetings.
Statistics
- – Last direct matchup: Packers won 48-32 on the road, a high-scoring script that tilted Green Bay’s way.
- – Head-to-head (last 5): Dallas 0 wins, Green Bay 5 wins. – Recent form (last 5, all comps): Dallas 2 wins, 3 losses; Green Bay 4 wins, 1 loss.
- – Last results: Cowboys fell 14-31 at Chicago; Packers fell 10-13 at Cleveland.
- – Scoring averages: Cowboys 30.0 points per game scored, 30.5 allowed; Packers 21.3 scored, 13.7 allowed.
- – Combined game averages: Cowboys contests average 60.5 total points; Packers contests average 35.0—blended midpoint near 47.5 suggests a modest lean to the under if the Packers dictate tempo.
- – Home/Road notes: Dallas is 1-0 at home; Green Bay’s road profile points to tighter, lower-scoring games, consistent with their defensive efficiency early on.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We like Green Bay’s defensive baseline, the coaching chess match leaning toward situational precision, and the head-to-head track record. That pushes us toward the spread and moneyline on the Packers, with the total sliding under our threshold. First tip: Packers -6 for the way their defense compresses games. Second tip: Packers moneyline (BetMGM Sportsbook), leveraged as a steady anchor; Dallas backers can consider the home side if you’re swinging for value. Third tip: Under 47.5, matching the blended pace and Green Bay’s early-season profile.
