Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions 11/27/2025
Ford Field. Week 13. Green Bay at Detroit with real NFC North stakes and a betting board that’s going to draw plenty of action. The Lions under Dan Campbell have been a fast-start, high-scoring home outfit, while Matt LaFleur’s Packers have traveled well and kept scores manageable on defense. Detroit is priced as the favorite on the moneyline, while the Packers are underdogs to grab the road win.
The last five for both teams? Three wins, two losses. The last direct meeting went Green Bay’s way, but this one is indoors in Detroit with an offense that’s averaging north of four touchdowns worth of points per game at home when you translate their scoring rate. We’ve got a high total on the board at 48.5, and there’s a case for points on both sides given Detroit’s home-scoring profile and Green Bay’s stronger output on the road. Let’s break it down like a Sunday insider segment—and find value.
One quick scan of the NFL betting odds can completely reshape how you see the slate — seriously, it’s worth the glance.
Our betting predictions: Packers @ Lions
Main Tip: Totals – Over 48.5 Points
Our primary betting tip: Over 48.5 points at -122 with DraftKings Sportsbook. Why: Detroit’s offense at Ford Field is humming. Across five home games, the Lions are averaging about 33.6 points per game, while allowing just under 19. Green Bay’s offense has actually traveled better than it’s played at Lambeau, averaging about 27.8 on the road. Indoors, with both coaching staffs comfortable going for it on fourth and short, you get extra drive extensions that turn into points. Probability: 55% to clear the number. Betting tip: Take Over 48.5 at -122 with DraftKings.
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Tip 2: Spread – Detroit Lions -2.5
Our secondary betting tip: Lions -2.5 at -115 with DraftKings Sportsbook. Why: Detroit’s home scoring margin this season is roughly +14.8 per game, a strong signal at a spread under a field goal. LaFleur’s group has a solid road scoring margin too, but the Lions’ pass-game timing at home plus Campbell’s aggressive in-game decisions tilt late-game possession leverage their way. Probability: 53% to cover.. Betting tip: Play Lions -2.5 at -115 with DraftKings.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Detroit Lions to Win
Our numbers indicate that Detroit is a 58% winner, while Green Bay is around 42%. The market is a shade steeper on Detroit at the best price with bet365, reflecting the Lions’ home offensive ceiling. If you want the dog, the +135 price on Green Bay is close to fair, but not a must-bet. Probability: Lions 58%, Packers 42%. Betting tip: If you’re tying into a parlay, Lions ML at best odds with bet365; otherwise, the better single-game value is the total.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Detroit Lions (Home)
- Records and settings: 7-4 overall, 4-1 at home. Campbell’s offense is built for this building—fast track, quick reads, and plenty of pre-snap motion.
- Scoring profile: The Lions have put up 326 points in 11 games—about 29.6 per game—and allowed 243—about 22.1 per game. At home, they’ve been even more potent: roughly 33.6 points scored and 18.8 allowed. That’s a strong split supporting both the Over and the short chalk.
- Form line: 3-2 across the last five, most recently winning an overtime tilt. That’s relevant—Campbell doesn’t shy from fourth-down aggression, which increases total plays and late-game scoring swings.
- Offense, situationally: Passing efficiency at home has been clean with high-percentage throws setting up explosive shots off play-action. Run game leans on gap and misdirection, keeping linebackers honest.
- Defense, situationally: A pass rush that flashes in high-leverage downs and a secondary that’s opportunistic enough to tilt a one-score game.
- Division context: NFC North race, Detroit’s 7-4 keeps them squarely in the divisional mix, with every head-to-head swing mattering for seeding and the wild-card ladder if necessary.
Green Bay Packers (Away)
- Records and settings: 7-3 overall, 3-1 on the road. LaFleur’s team has steadied with a defense that limits explosive plays and an offense that travels better than it plays at home.
- Scoring profile: Green Bay has scored 263 across 11—about 23.9 per game—and allowed 202—about 18.4 per game. On the road, the Packers tick up to roughly 27.8 scored and 24.2 allowed. That away lift on offense is real, and it’s one of the reasons our lean is to the Over.
- Form line: Also 3-2 across the last five, capped by a comfortable home win last time out.
- Offense, situationally: Quick-game rhythm for the quarterback has improved, and the shot plays show up more often outside Lambeau. The run game is timing-dependent; when early downs click, Green Bay becomes tougher to get off the field.
- Defense, situationally: Disciplined structure that forces long drives, but they’ll concede underneath windows. Indoors, that can mean sustained drives—and more total plays—late.
- Division context: NFC North-only lens here, too. At 7-3, Green Bay is in a strong divisional position with tiebreakers and head-to-heads in focus as the schedule tightens.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Coaching and quarterbacking matter here: Dan Campbell’s aggressive mindset has paid off in fourth-down conversions, and Jared Goff has been on an efficient run with a strong completion rate and clean pockets indoors. For Green Bay, Jordan Love has stacked steadier outings, especially on the road, with improved timing to his young wideouts.
- Injuries worth monitoring: Detroit has managed through offensive line dings and rotational issues on the defensive front; Green Bay has dealt with wideout availability and secondary health at various points. Keep an eye on final inactives for both teams—late changes could swing a key matchup in the slot or at tackle.
- Environment: Ford Field’s fast surface boosts timing and scoring. That, combined with both coaches’ willingness to keep the offense on the field in plus territory, nudges totals upward.
Last direct match
Last head-to-head finished 27-13 for Green Bay at home. This one flips to Ford Field, where Detroit’s scoring rate has been notably stronger.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Detroit Lions: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Green Bay Packers: 3 wins, 2 losses
Looking for the sharp side this week? Check out our NFL picks and see which matchups actually offer real value.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Over 48.5 at -110: This is our favorite angle. Detroit’s home offense plus Green Bay’s elevated road output—and both staffs’ fourth-down aggressiveness—create added scoring chances. Indoors, pace and efficiency rise. – Lions -2.5 at -115: The home scoring margin and situational leverage under Campbell justify laying less than a field goal. Even with Green Bay’s resilience, Detroit’s drive-to-drive advantages inside Ford Field are material. – Moneyline: Lions: With an estimated 58% win probability, Detroit fits as a parlay anchor. If you want a plus-price single, Packers +135 is close to fair but doesn’t outpace our projection.
Bottom line: our strongest conviction is the Over, followed by Lions -2.5. If you’re building cards, attach the Lions moneyline as the safe leg. The data-backed splits—Detroit’s home scoring rate and Green Bay’s road offense—are the path to green for this matchup.
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