Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys 11/27/2025
Thanksgiving in Arlington. Primetime vibes under the big board. Two blue-blood brands with playoff urgency. That’s how you draw it up for a nationally watched, bettable showcase. The Chiefs enter at 6-5, a road group still searching for a signature offensive rhythm, while the Cowboys are 5-5-1 and coming off an emotional home win. It’s a short week for Kansas City, a comfort-zone schedule spot for Dallas, and the injury list matters here. Patrick Mahomes remains the ultimate breaker of trends, but his receivers and protection have been up and down. Dak Prescott, meanwhile, says the hip is fine and he looked the part with a sharp high-volume outing last week.
From a betting lens: home/road splits are meaningful, the totals market is catching steam, and the spread is tight enough to bring teasers and live-betting into play. On the moneyline, the market respects K.C., while Dallas offers underdog value. We’ll break down the pace, matchup leverage, and where the line should settle in a holiday game that feels closer than the price suggests.
Wondering whether the books believe Dallas is a real contender this year? The Dallas Cowboys futures odds will tell you instantly.
Our betting predictions for Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
Main Tip: Game Totals – Over 47.5 Points
Our first prediction: Over 47.5 points at -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook: Thanksgiving games indoors often trend to cleaner execution. Dallas at home is averaging 33.0 points per game in their building this season, while Kansas City’s road defense allows 23.4 points per game. The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t consistently exploded, but their last outing showed more downfield bite with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy involved. With Prescott at full practice and Brian Schottenheimer comfortable dialing tempo, both teams have paths into the mid-to-high 20s.
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Tip 2: Spread – Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Our second betting tip: Cowboys +3.5 at -110 with BetMGM. Dallas has played better than their overall record at AT&T Stadium, and the short week disproportionately challenges the Chiefs’ banged-up units, especially along the offensive interior and at tight end depth. Prescott’s situational play at home gives the Cowboys a strong chance to keep this within a field goal—if not steal it late. The hook at +3.5 is valuable in a game that profiles as a tight, late-possession battle.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Cowboys ML
Our final betting tip – Moneyline: Cowboys at a plus value with bet365 (estimated win chance: 44% vs. market implication ~39%); Chiefs (market implication ~65%): Kansas City deserves to be favored on brand and quarterback edge. But if you’re looking for value, the home side has enough matchup elements—receiver separation, pace flexibility, and a comfortable indoor script—to justify a smaller position on the plus price.
Team Statistics and current form snapshot
- Dallas Cowboys (home, NFC East, 2nd place in the division): Dallas is 5-5-1 overall, and 3-1 at home this season, signaling a meaningful swing in comfort and rhythm at AT&T Stadium.
- Average scoring at home sits at 33.0 points per game, with 29.4 allowed. Across all games, the Cowboys average 29.1 points for and 28.5 against.
- Over the last five, they’re 3-2, including last week’s 24-21 home win over Philadelphia. Dak Prescott was upgraded to full participation and said he’s “fine” after a hip issue—he played through it.
- CeeDee Lamb remains the explosive centerpiece despite a few drops last week; his route versatility plus formation motion under head coach Brian Schottenheimer has created steady middle-of-field access.
- Defensive volatility remains: they’re opportunistic, but the consistency snap to snap can waver, which has pushed several games into tighter-than-necessary scripts.
- Still, at home, Dallas plays faster, scores earlier, and puts pressure on opposing secondaries. That profile fits an Over and home-cover angle.
- Kansas City Chiefs (away, AFC West, 3rd place in the division): Kansas City sits at 6-5. On the road, they’re 1-4, averaging 22.2 points scored and 23.4 allowed.
- Across all games, the Chiefs average 25.2 per game and allow 18.3—credit to a defense that has carried them in stretches. The offense, though, has been uneven.
- Last week, Mahomes went 29-of-46 with 352 yards, no touchdowns and one interception; the encouraging piece was the downfield chemistry reappearing late, with Rice and Worthy each making timely plays.
- Kareem Hunt provided grind-it-out balance with 30 carries, but the short turnaround raises questions about workload and freshness.
- Health watch: Trey Smith (ankle) exited early last game; Noah Gray is in the concussion protocol; Chris Roland-Wallace is managing a back issue. Isiah Pacheco has been trending better than a week ago.
- Given the travel and a Thursday kick, Kansas City’s margin on offense may rest on pass protection cohesion and the wideouts winning early against Dallas’ press looks.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Patrick Mahomes’ recent three-game stretch has featured a 1:3 TD-to-INT run, but his Week 12 yardage spike plus late-game shot plays suggest timing is improving with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Dak Prescott just put together a 354-yard day with three total touchdowns; his hip checked out fine, and he’s trending fully active.
- Emotional edge: Dallas returns home again after a charged win and a tribute-laden week for the defense.
- External: Short week for the Chiefs with road travel; Dallas stays home, indoors at AT&T Stadium—no weather variables.
- Coaching lens: Brian Schottenheimer has leaned into motion and quick-game sequencing to keep Dak clean. Andy Reid’s situational designs remain elite; expect scripted shots early.
Last direct match: Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs
The most recent meeting finished 19-9 for Kansas City at Arrowhead. Different setting this time: indoors, Thanksgiving spotlight, and a Dallas offense that’s been sharper at home.
Performance last 5 Matches
Both teams are 3-2 across their last five. Dallas is coming off a 24-21 home win over Philadelphia; Kansas City edged Indianapolis 23-20 in overtime after a 9-7 regulation finish.
Injury situation and lineup impact (quick hits)
- Chiefs: Trey Smith (ankle) left last game; Noah Gray is in the concussion protocol; Chris Roland-Wallace (back) also on the watch list. Isiah Pacheco was ruled out previously but has a better shot on the short timeline than last week. Xavier Worthy is playing through multiple dings. Short-week travel amplifies the risk of late inactives.
- Cowboys: Dak Prescott (hip) fully participated after a limited session earlier in the week and says he’s good to go. Tyler Smith and Donovan Wilson were upgraded to full participants, stabilizing the interior blocking and secondary rotations.
How the playoff picture shapes motivation
- AFC West: The Chiefs are third, with wild-card positioning in play; every win matters as tiebreakers stack up.
- NFC East: Dallas sits second and is very much alive for a wild-card path. At 17 games per team and seven postseason spots per conference, margin is thin.
- Single-elimination awaits, which makes divisional placement and home field a premium. This game is a leverage point for both.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card leans into environment, injury context, and home/road splits. The Over 47.5 at -115 leads because Dallas’ home scoring average (33.0) and K.C.’s playmaker potential point to both teams threatening 24+. The spread pick—Cowboys +3.5—is next. The hook matters, and Dallas’ situational efficiency at home plus a short-week spot for Kansas City narrows the margin. Finally, the moneyline: if you’re allocating a lean on price, Cowboys +155 is a justifiable sprinkle with our 44% projection. If you need the safer side, the market-favored Chiefs reflect Mahomes’ edge—but the value sits with Dallas.
Bottom line: Over 47.5, Dallas +3.5, and a smaller position on Dallas. Thanksgiving tends to deliver drama; this one sets up for a one-score finish with enough explosive plays to push it over the number.
