Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders 01/04/2026
It’s Week 18 in Vegas, a late-window AFC West tilt that doubles as a final audition for a lot of depth-chart names and a chance to cash one more ticket before the postseason. The Chiefs roll into Allegiant with Andy Reid and a battered offense that’s been grinding through losses and attrition down the stretch. Las Vegas, coached by Pete Carroll, has been taking its lumps, too, cycling through quarterbacks and leaning on a defense that’s been on the field way too often.
Recent form says both sides have been sliding — five straight losses each — but market numbers are still giving Kansas City the edge on the moneyline, and that checks out when you look at per-game scoring, matchup tendencies in a dome, and the quarterback plan for the Raiders. Total markets are hanging a modest 36.0, and that’s where this game gets interesting: neutral environment, scripted shots early, and two defenses that have been allowing steady, methodical drives. Let’s dive into the bets that make the most sense.
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Our betting predictions: Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Main Pick: Totals – Over 36.0 Points
Our primary tip is on the Totals: Over 36.0 points at -118 with DraftKings—projected hit rate: 56%. In a controlled indoor setting, you remove wind, cold, and footing issues — perfect for scripted first-15 plays to pop. Kansas City’s offense, even with key absences, still averages about 21.9 points per game across the season, while the Raiders’ defense has allowed roughly 26.3 per game. The Raiders themselves average 14.2 points per game, and if they get into short-field spots off KC’s reshuffled offensive line, that pushes this total into the high 30s. With both teams out of the playoff chase, aggression on fourth downs tends to tick up — which helps overs—betting tip: Over 36.0 at -118 to 37.5.
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Pick 2: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
2) Chiefs -4.5 at -115 with DraftKings. Projected cover probability: 55%. The Chiefs’ defense has traveled; they allow around 19.6 points per game overall and about 21.8 on the road. Against a Raiders offense in evaluation mode with Kenny Pickett expected to start and Aidan O’Connell likely to mix in, Kansas City’s front and pressure packages should tilt field position. Even with Kansas City’s offensive injuries, Reid’s game-planning against a familiar division opponent sets up a 6-to-10-point window. Betting tip: Chiefs -4.5 at -115 with DraftKings.
Pick 3: Moneyline – Chiefs
3) Moneyline: Chiefs at attractive odds with bet365 (Las Vegas as the underdogs). Kansas City win probability: 69% (fair price ~ -223). That’s a touch below the market, so the spread is the better value, but the moneyline still profiles as the safer leg for parlays if you want to anchor a card. The Raiders’ QB uncertainty, plus a defense that’s conceded sustained drives most weeks, keeps this tilted toward Kansas City. Betting tip: Chiefs ML if you need a parlay anchor; otherwise, prioritize the spread and total.
Team Statistics and Form Guide
Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
- Record and recent form: 2-14 overall, on a five-game losing streak, most recent result a 10-34 home loss to the Giants. Win rate 12.5%; loss rate 87.5%.
- Scoring profile: Averages 14.2 points per game on the season. At home, that nudges up to about 16.9 per game; on the road, they’ve averaged 11.5.
- Defensive profile: Allows 26.3 points per game. At home, roughly 25.0 allowed; on the road, about 27.5.
- Division context: AFC West side with a 0-5 division mark in the provided context, out of the playoff picture.
- Style notes: With Geno Smith sidelined, Pete Carroll’s offense shifts to ball-control concepts for Kenny Pickett with Aidan O’Connell in relief. Expect quick-game throws, occasional shot plays, and an emphasis on manageable third downs. Takeaways have been inconsistent, so flipping the field rests on pass rush moments and special teams.
- Intangibles: Motivation leans toward evaluation — rookies and rotational players getting tape. In a dome, the Raiders usually play with a touch more pace early.
Kansas City Chiefs (Away)
- Record and recent form: 6-10 overall, also on a five-game losing streak, latest a 13-20 home loss to the Broncos. Win rate 37.5%; loss rate 62.5%.
- Scoring profile: Averages 21.9 points per game overall. On the road, that dips to about 18.5; at home, around 25.3.
- Defensive profile: Allows 19.6 points per game, with a road figure around 21.8 and a home figure near 17.5. That steadiness is the backbone of their handicap here.
- Division context: AFC West team listed at 1-4 in-division in the provided context and eliminated from playoff contention.
- Style notes: With Patrick Mahomes sidelined late in the season and offensive line health in flux, expect a lean into the run game and defined reads for the quarterback. Kansas City’s defense remains the more trustworthy unit — red-zone containment and tighter coverage shells have kept opponents’ scoring averages in check.
- Intangibles: Andy Reid typically scripts clean openers; if protection holds up, Kansas City should control time of possession enough to cover a short number.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks: Kansas City is without Mahomes (season-ending knee). For Las Vegas, Pete Carroll indicated Kenny Pickett will start, with Aidan O’Connell also in the plan. That’s a lot of volatility for the home offense.
- OL/RB/WR health: Chiefs RG Trey Smith (ankle) is unlikely. Illness issues have impacted RB Kareem Hunt and WR Xavier Worthy. Expect Reid to streamline protections and ride balanced play-calling.
- Raiders injuries: Geno Smith’s high ankle sprain leaves the QB room thin; key names like Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers are on injured reserve per the provided context.
- Venue and tempo: Allegiant Stadium’s dome removes weather from the equation, boosting scripted efficiency.
- Motivation: Both teams are eliminated, which typically increases fourth-down aggression and gadget looks. Draft-position subtext favors Vegas playing long-game evaluation.
Last direct match
The last meeting ended with a 31-0 Kansas City win, a one-sided script that showcased early separation and cruise control in the second half.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Raiders: 0-5. Chiefs: 0-5. Both are trending down entering Week 18.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card prioritizes the Over 36.0 and Chiefs -4.5, with Chiefs ML reserved as a safer anchor leg. Why these three? The total benefits from the dome and end-of-season aggressiveness, even modest efficiency on both sides gets this into the high 30s. The spread leans on a Chiefs defense that travels, and a Raiders offense dealing with quarterback rotation — the matchup tilts toward a one-score Kansas City win that lands north of the 4.5. The moneyline matches the likely outcome, though the price is rich relative to our projection, so we prefer the spread for value. In an AFC West closer with both clubs out of the postseason, the cleaner structure and defensive reliability reside with Andy Reid’s crew, while Pete Carroll’s Raiders are in evaluation mode. Play the Over first, the spread second, and keep the ML as an add-on if you need to round out a ticket.
