Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos 11/06/2025
Thursday night at altitude, a rivalry tilt in the AFC West, and a betting board that tells a pretty clear story: Denver has the momentum, Las Vegas has the questions. Kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High, where Sean Payton’s crew has been lights out at home. Denver’s offense is averaging 25.0 points per game overall (31.3 per game at home), while the defense has tightened to 18.4 points allowed per game. Las Vegas, meanwhile, comes in scoring 16.5 per game and allowing 26.3 per game. That road split is even tougher: the Raiders have averaged 12.5 per game away from home, conceding 31.3.
The most recent head-to-head finished 29-19 in Denver’s favor, and current form only widens that gap: Broncos are 5-0 over their last five, while the Raiders sit at 1-4. The Broncos beat Houston 18-15 most recently; the Raiders lost 30-29 in overtime to Jacksonville at home. This is one of those divisional games where the number looks heavy for the favorite, but the matchup data backs it up. If you’re sizing up the board, you’re weighing Denver’s offense at home and a defense trending in the right direction versus a Raiders group trying to stabilize in a tough spot. The market’s also implying a modest total. With the Broncos controlling the pace, there’s a path to a lower-scoring script even if Denver handles its business.
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Our betting predictions for the match, Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Main Tip: Spread — Las Vegas Raiders +10
Our first prediction: Spread — Las Vegas Raiders +10 at -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook. For a rivalry game, double digits can be a lot, and Las Vegas has tended to play Denver close even when the Raiders are struggling. Denver has a strong home profile, but the number bakes in a dominant script. If the Broncos lean on their defense and the run game to protect a lead, it can compress possessions and keep the backdoor open. We’ll grab the +10 at -115.
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Tip 2: Moneyline — Denver Broncos to Win
Our second prediction: Moneyline — Denver Broncos to win at DraftKings Sportsbook. Denver’s home splits are convincing: 31.3 points scored and 17.8 allowed per game at Mile High, a combination that has fueled a perfect 4-0 home run so far. Las Vegas is averaging only 12.5 on the road, with defensive leakage at 31.3 allowed. With recent form 5-0 for Denver and H2H momentum from the 29-19 win, the straight-up angle points one way. Broncos ML at best odds with DraftKings.
Tip 3: Game Totals — Under 42.5 Points
Our final prediction: Total — Under 42.5 points at -110 with DraftKings. The Broncos’ defense has rounded into shape (18.4 allowed per game), and their home control can slow tempo once they get a lead. Las Vegas on the road has struggled to sustain drives, averaging 12.5 points away. If Denver rides a field-position game and limits mistakes, we’re set up for a mid- to high-30s scoreboard rather than a shootout. Under 42.5 at -110 is live.
Team news
Per the provided context, Las Vegas is navigating several injury concerns, particularly in the secondary and backfield, with Ameer Abdullah and depth pieces potentially stepping into larger roles. In the defensive backfield, multiple corners are flagged as out or questionable. Denver’s situation looks lighter per the same context, with a couple of names monitored through the week and a key safety returning. As always, check the final injury report and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, but the broad takeaway here is that Denver appears a bit more stable on the health front.
Denver Broncos performance check
Sean Payton’s team is rolling. Overall, Denver is 7-2, with 25.0 points per game scored and 18.4 allowed. The home splits tell a bigger story: 31.3 per game at Empower Field while giving up 17.8. That’s the formula for a top-tier home edge: balance and pace control. Over the last five games, the Broncos are 5-0, with that latest 18-15 road win at Houston serving as proof they can grind out a lower-scoring result away from altitude.
What’s working? Efficient red-zone execution and complementary football. Denver can lean on a productive passing game when needed but is just as comfortable turning to the run to shorten the game once ahead. The defense is playing on schedule, forcing field goals instead of surrendering touchdowns and winning situational downs. Takeaways, pressure packages, and disciplined tackling have shown up on tape the past month. In short, Denver has found its lane and isn’t veering from it at home.
How is the current performance of the Las Vegas Raiders
Pete Carroll’s group is trying to solve a tricky equation. At 2-6, the Raiders are averaging 16.5 points per game, allowing 26.3. On the road, the scoring dipped to 12.5 per game paired with 31.3 allowed, painting the challenge they face in Denver. Over their last five, they’re 1-4, most recently losing 30-29 in OT to Jacksonville. Offensively, sustaining drives and finishing in the red zone have been ongoing themes; defensively, the big plays allowed in key moments have made it tough to put games away.
That said, it’s a divisional matchup, and rivalry energy can compress margins. If Las Vegas can generate negative plays defensively and find some early rhythm with a balanced script, they can keep this within two possessions and make Denver earn every yard.
Team Statistics
- – Denver overall scoring: 25.0 points per game (225 over 9 games)
- – Denver overall allowed: 18.4 points per game (166 over 9)
- – Denver at home: 31.3 scored and 17.8 allowed per game (4 home games)
- – Las Vegas overall scoring: 16.5 points per game (132 over 8 games)
- – Las Vegas overall allowed: 26.3 points per game (210 over 8)
- – Las Vegas on the road: 12.5 scored and 31.3 allowed per game (4 road games)
- – Recent form: Denver 5-0 last five; Las Vegas 1-4 last five
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Most recent meeting notes highlighted Denver QB production (273 yards, 2 TDs) and Courtland Sutton’s eight-catch, two-score day.
- – Jakobi Meyers posted a double-digit reception outing for Las Vegas, offering a reliable chain-mover profile even in a loss.
- – Maxx Crosby’s presence off the edge always shifts protection plans; Denver’s RT matchup is worth watching in passing downs.
- – Special teams matter at altitude; both kickers reportedly combined for a perfect day in the prior meeting with multiple long makes. Empower Field’s thin air magnifies field-position swings.
- – Injury backdrop: Las Vegas is monitoring multiple defensive backs and running backs per the provided context, while Denver’s list is comparatively lighter.
External factors:
- Altitude at Mile High affects stamina and kick distance; the home team typically manages rotations and breathing strategies better.
- Coaching: Payton’s game management and situational planning have matched well with Denver’s defensive rise. Carroll’s Raiders bring a physical mindset, but the task is navigating early pressure spots to stay on schedule.
Last direct match: Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
The latest head-to-head finished 29-19 to Denver. Per the provided context, Denver built momentum through efficient passing and Sutton’s playmaking, while Las Vegas answered with volume targets to Meyers and steady placekicking. The margin reflected Denver’s ability to finish drives with touchdowns and limit the Raiders to field goals in key sequences.
Performance last 5 matches
- – Denver Broncos: 5 wins, 0 losses
- – Las Vegas Raiders: 1 win, 4 losses
The recent run underscores Denver’s steady climb and Las Vegas’ need to find early-game offense and late-game stops.
Last match results: Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders
- – Denver Broncos: 18-15 away win versus Houston Texans
- – Las Vegas Raiders: 29-30 overtime home loss versus Jacksonville Jaguars
That Denver result underscores their comfort in a tight, lower-scoring environment. The Raiders’ overtime loss shows fight, but also the struggle to close a winnable game.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re aligning our three picks with what the matchup and the splits suggest. Denver at home is a strong straight-up play, and we’ll take the Broncos on the moneyline given their 31.3 home scoring average and 17.8 allowed. The total leans into a controlled Denver script and a road-lagging Raiders offense, so Under 42.5 at -110 makes sense. And because double digits in a divisional rivalry can be generous, we’ll roll with Las Vegas +10 at -115 to keep this within the number even if Denver handles business. That trio balances a heavy favorite on the ML, a matchup-driven under, and a rivalry spread that offers cushion for a competitive game state.
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