Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots 09/07/2025

It’s Week 1 in Foxborough, a clean slate for two AFC teams trying to set an early tone in their divisions. The Patriots welcome the Raiders to Gillette Stadium for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff, and the backdrop is classic September NFL: new wrinkles, fresh legs, and a lot of unknowns. New England is coming off an away loss in their final tune-up against the Giants, while Las Vegas took an away loss to Arizona in their last run-out. In their most recent NFL games last year, the Patriots finished on a home win over Buffalo; the Raiders closed with a home loss to the Chargers. So the snapshots aren’t aligned, but they do paint a picture: New England’s still stingy at home when it clicks, and the Raiders remain volatile, with spurts of efficiency punctuated by stretches where possessions stall.

The Raiders still face significant depth issues, particularly at wide receiver, where only Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker have ever produced a 500-yard season. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel’s Patriots are expected to rely heavily on their defense and special teams to dictate the pace of the game. However, New England’s lack of quality depth across the roster remains a glaring problem, as the talent gap between starters and backups highlights the team’s ongoing challenges in building through the draft.

From a betting angle, early-season numbers bring opportunity. The Raiders have taken the last head-to-head, 21-17, and hold a 3-2 edge across the last five meetings. But New England looked more competitive late last season in front of the home crowd, and that’s baked into the opening line. With the AFC divided into East and West divisions and both teams at 0-0 in their respective standings, this one matters more than it might feel on paper: it’s a conference game, and it will echo later if tiebreakers come into play. If you like situational angles, the Raiders are flying cross-country for an early window kickoff—a perennial challenge—while Jerod Mayo’s group should lean on defense and field position to keep things in their comfort zone.

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Our betting predictions for the match Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

Main Tip: Game Totals Under 44.5 points

First tip: Game Totals Under 44.5 points at -128 with Caesars Sportsbook. Our betting prediction: Week 1 games often run a little conservative, especially with new play-callers settling in and both defenses fresh. The Patriots’ recent home form leans toward lower-event scripts, and the Raiders, despite playmakers, have had stretches of drive inconsistency. Factor in cross-country travel for Vegas and a Foxborough forecast that often favors ball control early in the season. I like a measured pace, red-zone field goals, and clock-churning series. The pick: Under 44.5 at -128.

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Second Tip: Moneyline – New England Patriots to win

Our betting tip: New England is at home, where their last NFL outing was a winner against a tough Buffalo unit. The Raiders have the recent head-to-head, but the Patriots’ defensive identity under Jerod Mayo feels tailor-made for a Week 1 grinder. Early-window kick for a West Coast team is another checkmark toward the home side. With special teams usually sharper in Foxborough, small margins favor the hosts. The pick: Patriots Moneyline at very competitive odds with BetMGM.

Third Tip: Spread — New England Patriots -2.5

Our prediction: The number is manageable under a field goal. If you like New England to edge the moneyline, there’s a natural correlation to laying the short spread. The Raiders’ last two outings (including last season’s closer) showed variability on both sides of the ball, and the Patriots’ path is straightforward: win the field-position battle and limit explosive plays. In a 3-to-7 point game script, -2.5 has value. The pick: Patriots -2.5 at -118 with BetMGM.

Team news

New England transitions into the Jerod Mayo era with a defense-first posture and an offense built to minimize mistakes. Expect the Patriots to lean on situational football, especially at home, emphasizing manageable third downs and protecting their quarterback. The Raiders, led by Antonio Pierce, come in with the edge and physicality. Pierce’s team wants balance—steady groundwork to set up chunk gains. On both sidelines, Week 1 is about clean operation: penalties, protection, and tackling fundamentals.

New England Patriots performance check

Mike Vrabel’s Patriots finished last season with a confidence-building home win over Buffalo and entered this opener on a preseason split with 3 wins and 2 losses across the last five in all competitions. In their most recent outing, though, they absorbed an away loss to the Giants, scoring 10 and conceding 42. That’s the kind of wake-up tape a defensive-minded staff will obsess over, particularly in tackling angles and rush-lane discipline. The recent five-game NFL slate across seasons shows 1 win and 4 losses, so expectations rest on the defense elevating fast.

In the AFC East, everyone starts 0-0, and this is where the Patriots can bank an early home result. The offensive approach should skew toward balance and quick-game concepts, with selective shots to loosen the box. On defense, New England’s goal will be compressing passing windows and forcing long fields—core Foxborough traits. If they keep the Raiders from breaking contain on the edges and win on third-and-medium, they’ll tilt the time of possession in their favor without needing explosive scoring to do it. Special teams often lean toward New England in close spots, a notable edge in a tight spread game.

How is the current performance of the Las Vegas Raiders

Under Pete Carroll, Vegas brings physicality and attitude. Across their last five in all competitions, they’ve logged 1 win and 3 losses, with their most recent game an away loss at Arizona. In their final NFL game last season, they took a home loss against the Chargers, highlighting the inconsistency that has defined stretches of their offense. Still, they’ve had the Patriots’ number lately, taking three of the last five head-to-heads, including a 21-17 home win in the most recent meeting. That’s meaningful confidence when you step into Gillette.

The Raiders’ path in the AFC West is rugged, and like the Patriots, they begin 0-0 in a division where margins are slim. For this trip, the challenge is operational: mastering cadence, communication, and protection in an early East Coast window. If Las Vegas sustains the run and keeps third downs manageable, they can press New England into lighter boxes and hit intermediate rhythm throws. Defensively, the Raiders want to create negative plays—sacks, batted balls, and forced third-and-long—so they can turn the game into a few decisive possessions. Win that disruption battle, and they’re live to flip the script.

Statistics

– Last direct meeting: Las Vegas beat New England 21-17 at home. That was a one-score game with a tight second half, and it hints at another grinder in Foxborough.

• Head-to-head, last five: Raiders 3 wins, Patriots 2 wins. The edge goes to Vegas, but the margin is narrow, and the venue flips to Gillette.
• Performance last five (all competitions): Patriots 3 wins, 2 losses; Raiders 1 win, 3 losses. New England enters with better recent form across the preseason and late last year, even if their last NFL five-game stretch sits at 1-4.
• Last matches: The Patriots took an away loss to the Giants, while the Raiders fell on the road to Arizona. Both come in looking to clean up details.
• New England lens: At home late last season, the Patriots found a formula—defense, field position, and timely offense—that produced a win over Buffalo. Their recent averages point to modest scoring with heavy emphasis on turnover margin and situational downs. That should be the plan in this opener: keep the chains moving, force the Raiders into second-and-long, and squeeze the game.
• Las Vegas lens: Vegas’ recent profile shows volatility from drive to drive. The keys are avoiding negative plays and sustaining early-down efficiency to prevent the Patriots from dictating personnel. If they can generate steady pressure on defense, they can create short fields and tilt the game script. But with travel and the early kick, a slower start is a risk.

TrustnBet Final Thoughts

We’re leaning toward a methodical, low-variance opener in Foxborough. New England’s defense-first DNA, combined with Las Vegas’ travel and tendency for streaky drives, points to a controlled pace and a game that lives in the 40s or lower. That’s why our first play is the Under 44.5. If you’re looking for a side, home field, and Week 1 situational edges point to the Patriots on the Moneyline. For bettors comfortable turning that lean into a spread, New England -2.5 offers a favorable number under a field goal. It’s a classic Gillette script: defense, special teams, and just enough offense to cash.