Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys 12/21/2025
We’re rolling into Week 16 with a West-meets-Texas headline game: Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, December 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium. If you’re sizing up the board, this matchup checks every box: playoff leverage for the Chargers, prime-time spotlight vibes in Dallas, and a coaching chess match that includes Dallas’ Brian Schottenheimer orchestrating the home offense and Jim Harbaugh pushing a revival in L.A. Recent form says the Chargers are trending up, while the Cowboys have taken some lumps lately. But the number floating out there tells you something about the market’s respect for home field and Dallas’s ability to respond at home. If you bet the NFL, you know momentum matters, but matchups and game scripts pay the bills.
Dallas has been strong in Arlington, while the Chargers have traveled well all season. Expect a methodical game with situational football front and center: third downs, red-zone execution, and which defense can get off the field. That sets the stage for a tight betting angle: moneyline lean to Dallas, a modest home spread, and a strong case for the Under in a controlled indoor environment.
Bet on the future of America’s Team.
Explore Dallas Cowboys futures odds now and lock in your pick before the season shifts the lines.
Our betting predictions: Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Main Tip: Total – Under 50.5 Points
1) Total: Under 50.5 points at best odds -125 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Handicapper’s view: Dallas games have opened up lately, but the Chargers tilt games toward a slower, more balanced flow under Harbaugh. L.A. is averaging about 22.5 points per game and allowing around 20.3 per game; Dallas sits near 29.1 for and about 30.0 against. Indoors can nudge scoring, but the Chargers’ recent stretch has been about limiting explosives and managing tempo. We project a measured pace with sustained drives, more field goals than deep shots, and we’ll happily take Under 50.5 at -125 with FanDuel.
Learn how the FanDuel deposit bonus works and maximize your first bet with extra value. Sign up today and turn your deposit into more winning opportunities.
Tip 2: Spread – Dallas Cowboys -2.0
2) Spread: Dallas Cowboys -2.0 at best odds -118 at FanDuel. This is a modest tax on the home side and a nod to Dallas’s ability to protect its buildings. Even with recent losses, Dallas can still structure a script where the run game and quick-game passing keep them on schedule, while a few pressure moments force the Chargers into long-yardage downs. Our projection makes Dallas -2.5 on a neutral-ish conversion for this spot; at -2.0 at -118, you’re essentially asking Dallas to win by a field goal. Edge to the home side. Estimated cover probability: 54% (fair near -118 at FanDuel).
Tip 3: Moneyline – Dallas Cowboys
3) Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys at best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The moneyline pairs with the spread view: home turf, bounce-back profile, and enough matchup leverage to cash the ticket. The Chargers’ road resilience is real, but in a one-score projection, we lean toward the Cowboys. Market-best price at BetMGM translates to about a 57% implied chance. We model Dallas around 55-57% to take it. If you’re hunting plus money variance, Chargers plus odds is a viable hedge, but our primary ML pick is Dallas.
Team Statistics and current form snapshot
Dallas Cowboys (home)
- Record and recent form: Dallas has gone 3 wins and 2 losses across the last five, but the latest outing was a 26-34 home loss to Minnesota. Overall, they sit at 6-7-1, which works out to roughly a 46% win rate. At home, Dallas has been reliable with a positive record across the season, and that home comfort is a big reason they’re short favorites here.
- Scoring profile: About 29.1 points per game scored and roughly 30.0 allowed. That’s a volatile tilt, but it’s also the sign of a team that can trade blows in spurts and still create winning scripts at home with a couple of key stops.
- Offense under Brian Schottenheimer: Dallas’ passing attack remains the lever. The quick game gets the ball out, with CeeDee Lamb as the chain mover and explosive threat. When the Cowboys maintain balance, they sustain drives and keep the pressure off the protection unit.
- Defensive pulse: The points allowed number is high, but Dallas can manufacture negative plays when they win on early downs. If they keep the Chargers behind the sticks, their pressure looks can show up in the sack and takeaway columns. The key is tilting first down to set up the rush.
Los Angeles Chargers (away)
- Record and recent form: L.A. has 4 wins and 1 loss across the last five, fresh off a tight 16-13 road win in Kansas City. At 10-4 overall, they’re winning about 71% of their games and have been steady on the road this year.
- Scoring profile: The Chargers average roughly 22.5 points per game and allow about 20.3. That’s the blueprint of a team comfortable playing disciplined, lower-variance football—fewer shootouts, more control of pace.
- Offense under Jim Harbaugh: They’ve leaned into a balanced identity that doesn’t mind a grind. Passing can hit efficient windows, and the run game is built to settle the clock. If they play from in front, they’re tough to rattle.
- Defensive pulse: Since the bye, the Chargers have clamped down—three straight games holding opponents under 20 has echoed that theme. When they force long fields and make you execute 10-12 plays, mistakes tend to happen.
Division context (no overall table talk)
- Dallas: Sitting in the NFC East, the Cowboys are chasing Philadelphia and need a late run to keep any divisional hope alive. More realistically, they’re fighting to finish strong and improve late-season form in their own building.
- Los Angeles: The Chargers are in the AFC West chase and right in the postseason mix. A win here pushes them closer to locking in a postseason berth and potentially jockeying for seeding.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks matter most: Dallas’ passing rhythm at home can tilt this game if protection holds up and the quick-game sequencing hits. The Chargers’ quarterback play is steady and, under Harbaugh, built on patience and ball security.
- Health notes: Dallas has battled some short-term injuries on offense and in the secondary. L.A. has managed through offensive line shuffling but stayed functional with protection plans and run balance.
- Environment: Indoors at AT&T Stadium—no weather headache, cleaner kicking and passing conditions.
- Travel and pace: Chargers handle the business trip well, but their preferred tempo actually compresses possessions, which leans to our Under view.
Last direct match
The most recent meeting finished 26-19, an away win for the Los Angeles Chargers.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Dallas Cowboys: 3 wins, 2 losses (last game: 26-34 home loss vs Minnesota)
- Los Angeles Chargers: 4 wins, 1 loss (last game: 16-13 road win at Kansas City)
Check today’s NFL betting odds and find the best lines across every matchup. Compare spreads, totals, and moneylines to make smarter bets all season long.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We see three angles lining up. First, the Under 50.5 at -125 matches the Chargers’ slower, efficient profile, even in a dome. This sets up as a possession-driven matchup where red-zone execution, not explosives, decides the day. Second, Dallas -2.0 at -110 is a fair price on a team that tends to settle in at home, with Brian Schottenheimer dialing a script that keeps third downs manageable. Third, moneyline Dallas is a correlated play with the spread: in a one-score projection, the home team’s path is slightly cleaner.
Our modeled probabilities: Dallas wins 55-57% (fair price roughly -122), Chargers win 43-45% (fair price roughly +122), and the Under cashes about 58% of the time given the Chargers’ pace and defensive improvement. Put it together, and the recommendation stack is clear: Under 50.5, Cowboys -2.0, and Cowboys moneyline. Balanced, disciplined, and built for AT&T Stadium.
| Want to See Our Top Sports Betting Guides? | |
|---|---|
| 🏈 NFL Odds Betting | 🏀 NBA Odds Betting |
| 🏈 NCAAF Odds – College Football Betting | 🏀 NCAAB Odds – College Basketball Betting |
| ⚽ Soccer Betting Odds | 🏀 WNBA Odds Betting |
| 🏒 NHL Odds Betting | ⚾ MLB Odds Betting |
