Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots 01/11/2026
We’ve got a Wild Card tilt with real juice: the Los Angeles Chargers head into Foxborough to face the AFC East–winning New England Patriots on Sunday night, Jan 11, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET in Gillette Stadium. Two franchises on different trajectories—New England surging at the right time behind head coach Mike Vrabel, the Chargers trying to steady the ship after a late stumble—meet in a single-elimination setting. From a betting perspective, recent form and matchup context pull in different directions: New England’s defense and home edge make them the rightful favorite, while Los Angeles has traveled well, covered on the road, and tends to keep games tight under Jim Harbaugh.
The market shows a strong lean to the Pats on the moneyline, while the total at 45 gives Over backers a reasonable threshold, given both quarterbacks’ efficiency. The spread at +4 for L.A. is the interesting angle if you expect a one-score finish.
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Our betting predictions for the Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Main Tip: Spread – Chargers +4.0
1) Spread: Chargers +4.0 at -125 with DraftKings. Why: This profiles as a one-score playoff game. The Chargers’ road profile and Justin Herbert’s steady per-game passing production (around 219 yards with roughly 1.5 passing scores on average this season) keep L.A. alive to hang within a field goal even against New England’s top-10 scoring defense. Harbaugh tends to keep his teams resilient as underdogs, and with the Patriots’ offense leaning on the ground game when ahead, the script supports a tight margin. – Probability: 56% cover rate; current price is -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Pick 2: Game Totals – Over 45.0
2) Total: Over 45.0 at -125 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Why: Drake Maye’s per-game efficiency (about 258 passing yards a game, north of 70% completions, and nearly 1.9 passing scores per contest) plus Herbert’s steady baseline give this game a path to the high 40s. New England’s run game has been rolling over the last five, which can create explosives and set up efficient red-zone trips. The weather looks cold but manageable with only a light breeze. Playoff tempos can tighten, but both offenses have enough explosive potential to clear a mid-40s number. Probability: 54% to go Over; current price is -125.
Pick 3: Moneyline – New England Patriots ML
3) Moneyline: New England Patriots ML at best odds (BetMGM Sportsbook). Why: Home field, Vrabel’s influence on a disciplined defense allowing roughly 18.8 points per game, and a quarterback playing clean, efficient football make the Pats the rightful side to advance. The Chargers’ injuries up front and recent form are concerns in a cold-weather setting. The price has juice, but as a single-game decision to advance, New England’s edge is real. Probability: 61% Patriots win chance. Chargers’ best ML the other way, if you’re hunting for the upset.
Team Statistics: Current Form and Division Context
New England Patriots (AFC East Champions, home)
- Form snapshot: 4-1 in their last five (80% win rate), coming off a 38-10 home win over Miami. That kind of closing kick often translates in January, especially at home.
- Defensive backbone: About 18.8 points allowed per game with roughly 295 total yards conceded per outing; top-10 in key defensive metrics, including first downs allowed (around 17.8 per game). Defensive EPA sits in the top third of the league. That’s a blueprint defense for cold-weather playoff football.
- Offense in rhythm: Over the last five, the Patriots’ ground game is averaging roughly 168.6 rushing yards per game at 5.8 per carry—exactly the kind of efficiency that closes games. Drake Maye’s weekly output holds steady around 258 passing yards with close to two passing scores per game, and he’s been careful with the ball of late.
- Turnover profile: Season-long margin finished slightly on the plus side. The Pats protected the ball better than the Chargers overall, which matters in a low-scoring playoff script.
- Division picture: As AFC East champs, New England earned this home Wild Card date. New England sits atop the AFC East table; the focus now is on surviving and advancing in the AFC bracket toward the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC West runner-up, away)
- Form snapshot: 3-2 in their last five (60% win rate), but they’re coming off a 19-3 road loss at Denver that raised some late-season questions, particularly on offense.
- Herbert’s baseline: Around 219 passing yards per game with roughly 1.5 passing scores and about 0.8 picks per outing, plus about 29 rushing yards per game. That dual-threat floor on the road helps cover spreads even in hostile spots.
- Trench issues: Pass-block win rate has lagged, and injuries at tackle have been a season-long storyline. That’s the key battleground versus New England’s front—if L.A. stabilizes protection, their downfield weapons can re-open the middle of the field.
- Turnover profile: Also slightly positive overall, and the Chargers generate takeaways at a healthy clip. If they win the turnover battle by one, that’s the most likely path to an outright road upset.
- Division picture: The Chargers finished second in the AFC West, chasing a playoff run as a Wild Card out of the AFC bracket.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks: Drake Maye’s averages (roughly 258 yards and nearly two passing scores per game with high efficiency) have fueled New England’s late-season lift. Herbert brings a steady 219 passing yards per game and adds mobility for chain-moving scrambles.
- Trenches and injuries: Chargers’ tackle injuries remain the swing factor. If Los Angeles keeps Herbert clean, that boosts the spread outlook. New England’s line looks healthier entering the week.
- Weather: Foxborough forecast sits around mid-30s with a light breeze—cold but not prohibitive for the passing game.
- Coaching: Mike Vrabel’s situational management complements a defense-first identity. Jim Harbaugh’s teams are comfortable as road underdogs, typically playing tight, physical games.
- Momentum notes: Patriots closed strong and were perfect at night this season; the Chargers have also handled primetime well, which supports the Over.
Last direct match
Last meeting went heavily to Los Angeles on the road, a 40-7 result. Different season, different stakes, and a much-improved New England under Mike Vrabel.
Performance last 5 Matches
- New England Patriots: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Los Angeles Chargers: 3 wins, 2 losses
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re lining up with three actionable angles for this Wild Card clash. First, Chargers +4.0 is our favorite look. The matchup leans toward a one-score finish, and Los Angeles’ road profile with Herbert’s steady per-game baseline supports a cover, even if the Patriots ultimately advance. Second, over 45.0 is a buy: Maye’s high-efficiency passing and New England’s surging run game create an environment for 24-23 or 27-21 types of scores, provided weather remains as forecast. Finally, for the straight-up result, the Patriots’ moneyline is the side with home-field advantage and a defense allowing just under 19 per game; while the price is steep, it fits a conservative bankroll strategy in single-elimination football. Net-net, we expect a competitive, playoff-tempo game: Patriots to advance, Chargers to keep it inside the number, and enough combined efficiency to push this into the mid-to-high 40s.
