Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears 01/18/2026
Two proud NFC brands in a frozen January spotlight at Soldier Field? That’s playoff football. The Los Angeles Rams travel to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears in Sunday’s Divisional Playoff (Match ID: 11848273), and this one has all the storylines: weather with bite, high-leverage pass rushes, clutch quarterbacks, and two aggressive play-callers in Sean McVay and Chicago’s head coach, Ben Johnson.
On the board, the market has Los Angeles as the road favorite on the moneyline, with Chicago priced as the underdog. The spread sits in that key zone at Bears +4, and the total is lined at 49. If you’ve ridden the Bears’ late-game dramatics all season, you know they’ve been comeback artists. If you’ve backed the Rams, you know how reliably McVay’s group tends to travel in January.
Both clubs arrive off narrow Wild Card wins: Chicago 31-27 over Green Bay, L.A. 34-31 at Carolina. Momentum? Check. But so is the cold. With temps forecast under 20 degrees and winds pushing double digits, this might be more about handling the elements than showing off scheme. That’s where the betting angle gets interesting.
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Our betting predictions: Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Main Tip: Totals – Under 49.0 Points
1) Under 49.0 points at -115 with DraftKings (Confidence: Moderate-High). Why: Soldier Field in mid-January is a different sport. The wind, the bite, and a surface that plays heavy can suppress explosive pass plays and push offenses toward shorter throws and the ground game. Chicago’s defense has been opportunistic (about 1.94 takeaways per game and roughly 1.35 interceptions per game this season), which can shorten drives and chew clock. On the other side, L.A.’s pass rush—headlined by Jared Verse and Byron Young—creates negative plays that stall possessions. Our projection makes the Under hit around 56% of the time, in a game script with field goals over touchdowns in the red area. Betting tip: Under 49.0 at -115.
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Tip 2: Spread – Chicago Bears +4.0
2) Chicago Bears +4.0 at -115 with DraftKings (Confidence: Moderate). Why: Ben Johnson’s group is 7-2 at home and comfortable playing tight fourth-quarter football. Caleb Williams has been fearless late, and in this cold, home crowd matters. Los Angeles is still the rightful favorite, but Chicago’s ability to create short fields and Williams’ mobility can counter the Rams’ rush just enough to keep this within one possession. We project a 57% chance the Bears cover +4.0. Betting tip: Bears +4.0 at -115 with DraftKings.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Chicago Bears
3) Moneyline: Value sprinkle on Chicago Moneyline at best odds with bet365 (Confidence: Measured). Why: The market implies roughly a 37–38% chance on +165; we make Chicago closer to 43% to win, given the weather edge, the 7-2 home split, and the team’s late-game resilience. L.A. still owns the higher baseline (we’re around 57% on the Rams), but at current prices, the value leans toward the Bears upset. If you’re playing it straight: safer path is Bears +4 and the Under. If you want a little plus-money pop: Chicago on the moneyline.
Team Statistics
Chicago Bears (Home) — Form, division picture, and profile
- Current form: 3 wins, 2 losses over the last five (60% win rate), including a 31-27 home win over Green Bay in the Wild Card.
- Offense: With Caleb Williams, Chicago’s passing identity has grown. Using his full-season line as a guidepost, he’s around 231.9 passing yards per game. That’s effective, especially at home, where Johnson’s script often mixes play-action and quick outs to mitigate edge pressure. D’Andre Swift gives them enough burst to keep linebackers honest.
- Defense: Turnover production has been a calling card, averaging about 1.94 takeaways per game, buoyed by roughly 1.35 interceptions per game. That ball-hawking nature is tailor-made for cold-weather football, when tipped passes and timing routes become risky.
- Tackling and physicality: Chicago’s defense under Johnson’s staff has leaned on pursuit and leverage, forcing third-and-mediums rather than explosives. In the cold, that’s a winning formula.
- Home-field edge: 7-2 at Soldier Field this season. Crowd noise plus wind makes deep shots a lower percentage, and can tilt special-teams field position in Chicago’s favor.
Los Angeles Rams (Away) — Form, division picture, and identity
- Current form: 3 wins, 2 losses in their last five (60% win rate), coming off a 34-31 road win at Carolina.
- Offense: Matthew Stafford remains the tone-setter. Based on his season-long production, he’s around 277.5 passing yards per game, about 2.7 passing touchdowns per game, and roughly 0.47 interceptions per game. Puka Nacua’s volume plus YAC keeps chains moving, and L.A. can hit seams off condensed formations. The caveat: Stafford’s ball security has historically dipped in sub-50-degree games this year, a variable in Sunday’s cold.
- Defense and pass rush: The Rams’ pressure package travels. Jared Verse has compiled an elite pressure total, and Byron Young has complemented him with strong disruption and finishing at the quarterback. That matters against a Bears line reshuffling at linebacker and tackle spots, even with Braxton Jones back in the fold. Pressure equals punts, and in the cold, that converts to prime field position.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Injuries: Rams RG Kevin Dotson (ankle) is trending optimistic; QB Matthew Stafford (finger) is set to go; CB Ahkello Witherspoon is on IR. For Chicago, LB T.J. Edwards (fractured fibula) and LT Ozzy Trapilo (knee) are out. LT Braxton Jones has been activated and is expected to start.
- Weather: Expect temps under 20°F, wind over 10 mph, and a chance of snow. That leans under, favors field position, and punishes timing routes.
- Trends: Chicago has lived in late-game chaos with multiple fourth-quarter comebacks. L.A. has been reliable against the number over a larger sample.
- Coaching: Ben Johnson’s play sequencing at home has been sharp; McVay is elite with scripted drives. In a cold grinder, the first 15 plays and adjustments off those looks can swing possessions.
Last direct match
On 2024-09-29, Chicago topped Los Angeles 24-18 at Soldier Field.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Chicago Bears: 3 wins, 2 losses (last: 31-27 home win vs. Packers).
- Los Angeles Rams: 3 wins, 2 losses (last: 34-31 road win vs. Panthers).
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into the elements and the matchup leverage. The Under 49.0 is our favorite angle: wind plus cold, two defenses capable of timely stops, and a style that trends toward drives stalling just outside the red zone. Next, Bears +4.0 fits the game script of a one-score finish at Soldier Field, where the crowd and weather narrow the gap between these offenses. Finally, if you’re price-sensitive on the moneyline, Chicago +165 is the value piece—our projection puts the Bears’ win probability north of the implied number. The Rams are the rightful favorites, but the combination of Ben Johnson’s home-field edge, a ball-hawking defense, and the wind-chill factor brings upset potential firmly into play.
In the NFL’s postseason format—single elimination after a 17-game regular season, with seven teams per conference—the margins are razor-thin. NFC North versus NFC West, two distinct identities, and one very cold football game. Our card: Under 49.0, Bears +4.0, and a measured sprinkle on the Chicago moneyline.
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