Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys 12/14/2025
Sunday Night Football lights up AT&T Stadium on 12/14/2025 at 8:20 p.m. ET with Minnesota rolling into Dallas, and this one has real leverage for late-season positioning. Dallas sits at 6-6, a 50% win rate, but a strong 4-1 at home (80%) and coming off a frustrating road loss in Detroit. Minnesota, at 5-8 (38.5% wins) and 3-4 on the road (42.9%), just posted a dominant home shutout of Washington. That’s the momentum they’ll need in a tough building. From a betting lens, you’re weighing the Cowboys’ dependable home form and the series trend (Dallas has taken four of the last five) against a Vikings team that’s inconsistent but dangerous when they get rolling offensively and protect the football.
Market prices have Dallas as a sizeable favorite on the moneyline, with Minnesota priced as the underdog. Totals are set at 47, and the spread sits Cowboys -7. If you’re thinking about leverage, it’s less about who’s “better” in a vacuum and more about how the current injury picture, pass protection, and quarterback rhythm stack up right now. With Brian Schottenheimer crafting the Cowboys’ offensive approach and Kevin O’Connell guiding a young Minnesota quarterback room, this one sets up as a classic prime-time chess match with playoff implications very much in the background.
Curious how the Cowboys stack up in the futures market? Dive into the newest Cowboys futures odds and see which projections could be worth a closer look.
Our betting predictions: Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
Main Tip: Minnesota Vikings +7.0
1) Spread: Minnesota Vikings +7.0 at -120 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Why: Dallas’ offense is still volatile when the pass protection cracks, and Minnesota’s defense, while flawed in coverage, has enough rush juice to muddy up the timing. The Vikings’ road form isn’t sparkling, but catching a full seven gives room for backdoor scenarios and special-teams variance. The implied break-even for -120 is about 54.5%. Betting tip: Take Vikings +7.0 at -120 with Fanatics.
Check out the latest Fanatics welcome bonus details here and see, at a glance, how the offer is set up!
Tip 2: Game Totals – Over 47.0
2) Total: Over 47.0 at -110 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Why: Minnesota’s secondary has allowed about 243.3 passing yards per game and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, and Dallas’ passing game—when healthy—can create explosives at home. Conversely, Minnesota’s offense looked freer last week, and Dallas’ defense has injury questions. Implied break-even for -110 is ~52.4%; I make the Over closer to 55%. Betting tip: Over 47.0 at -110.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Dallas Cowboys
3) Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys priced favorably at BetMGM. Why: AT&T Stadium has been good to Dallas (80% wins at home this season). Even with a shaky outing in Detroit, the Cowboys remain the more stable team in this matchup and own the recent series edge. Market price implies ~74–75%; I’m slightly lower at about 69% win probability. Betting tip: Lean Cowboys moneyline, but the spread/total offer better value.
Team Statistics and Form Snapshot
Dallas Cowboys (Home)
- Record and trend: 6-6 overall (50% wins), but a strong 4-1 at home (80%). Last five: 3-2, with the latest a 30-44 road loss to Detroit. Dallas’ offense coughed it up three times in that game and allowed five sacks, which threw off timing and drove Detroit’s short fields.
- Efficiency notes: At home under Brian Schottenheimer’s guidance, Dallas generally plays with more tempo and rhythm, leaning on spacing routes and quick-game to set up deeper shots. When the Cowboys avoid giveaways, their per-game scoring at home sits in the mid-20s, driven by yards after catch and red-zone execution.
- Defense: The front is usually disruptive, but recent injuries have tested depth. Dallas has oscillated between splash plays (sacks, forced fumbles) and drive-extending penalties. If the pass rush gets home, the secondary benefits; if not, coverage can be stressed on in-breakers and deep crossers.
- Situational profile: Better at home on both sides of the ball. Special teams are typically clean, contributing to steady field position.
Minnesota Vikings (Away)
- Record and trend: 5-8 overall (38.5% wins), 3-4 on the road (42.9%). Last five: 1-4, though the most recent outing was a 31-0 home shutout over Washington that could spark momentum.
- Offense: With Kevin O’Connell scheming for a young quarterback room, the Vikings aim for balance—mixing play-action and defined reads. Accuracy and ball security are the swing factors. When they’re on schedule, the per-game production is respectable; when early-down efficiency craters, third-and-long exposes protection and decision-making.
- Defense: The Vikings have allowed about 243.3 passing yards per game and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, so explosive pass plays are the primary concern. The front seven, however, can generate pressure in waves and is active against the run on early downs.
- Situational profile: Road splits trend below average, and penalties at inopportune times have undercut otherwise sound drives. Takeaways come in bunches—if they win the turnover margin, their per-game scoring outlook improves markedly.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy has cleared concussion protocol and is trending toward starting; accuracy and ball security are the two metrics to watch.
- Dallas could get RT Tyler Guyton back, a meaningful pass-projection boost after Dak Prescott took heavy heat and five sacks last game.
- CeeDee Lamb’s status off concussion protocol is pivotal; if active, he tilts coverage and boosts Dallas’ explosive rate.
- Vikings’ pass defense has allowed about 243.3 yards per game and 1.5 passing TDs, opening the door for Dallas’ aerial attack at home.
- Playoff math: Dallas’ odds dipped after the Detroit loss; Minnesota is working through a QB transition. Urgency edge leans toward Dallas.
- Coaching: Brian Schottenheimer’s scripted starts at home typically stabilize the offense; Kevin O’Connell’s in-game adjustments can manufacture answers if Minnesota protects the pocket.
Last direct match
The last head-to-head finished 40-3, an emphatic away win for Dallas over Minnesota.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Dallas Cowboys: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Minnesota Vikings: 1 win, 4 losses.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Spread: Vikings +7.0 at -120. With Minnesota’s defensive front capable of creating some third-and-long stress and Dallas’ pass protection still in prove-it mode, a full touchdown feels generous. I project about a 57% cover rate versus a 54.5% break-even at -120. Total: Over 47.0 at -110. Minnesota’s pass defense has leaked per-game yardage, and Dallas at home can punish that—especially if Lamb is cleared. Minnesota just flashed offensive rhythm last week, and garbage-time pathways also favor the Over. I make it ~55% vs a 52.4% break-even at -110. Moneyline: Cowboys. Home advantage is real here, and Dallas has won four of the last five in the series. While I see the Cowboys win roughly 69% of the time, the price implies closer to 74–75%. It’s a lean rather than a must-play, with better value on the spread or total.
In short: take the points with Minnesota, look to the Over, and if you want moneyline exposure, Dallas is the safer side but at a premium. That balance—value on the Vikings +7 and Over 47, while acknowledging the Cowboys’ higher straight-up win probability—drives our card for Sunday night.
