Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers 11/23/2025
Let’s set the table in the NFC North for a Week 12 divisional scrap at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has been the steadier outfit through 10 games, winning six and dropping three with one tie, while Minnesota sits at 4-6 and is trying to stabilize. On the scoreboard, the Packers have been more efficient on both sides: averaging 24.0 points per game and allowing 19.6, compared to the Vikings at 21.8 scored and 23.2 allowed. Zoom in further and you see why bettors lean green and gold at home: Matt LaFleur’s crew has posted 20.2 points per home outing while surrendering just 15.0 in front of the Lambeau faithful. Minnesota travels better than their overall record indicates (3-2 away), but their road defense has bent more often, allowing 25.2 per trip.
Add in trends and form: Green Bay’s last five have produced three wins, while Minnesota’s last five include four losses, including a frustrating two-point loss to the Bears. The market reflects that gap with the Packers laying points and the total hovering in the low 40s. With rivalry energy, a cold-weather setting, and playoff positioning in sight, this one profiles as a measured, physical NFC North game where Green Bay’s balance and situational defense at home can tilt the matchup.
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Our betting predictions for the match Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Main Tip: Spread — Green Bay Packers -5.5
Our primary betting tip: Spread — Green Bay Packers -5.5 at -115 with FanDuel. Green Bay’s home scoring-and-defense split at Lambeau (about 20 scored, 15 allowed on average) lines up well against a Minnesota team that gives up north of 25 on the road. The Packers’ offense has been more consistent possession to possession, and their late-down defense has traveled to their home field. With Lambeau elements likely in play and Green Bay’s trench edge, laying the 5.5 is a reasonable approach in a rivalry spot. Pick: Packers -5.5 (-115 at FanDuel).
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Tip 2: Game Totals – Over 41.5
Our second prediction: Total — Over 41.5 at -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook. These teams combine for roughly 45.8 points per game on season averages (24.0 for Green Bay, 21.8 for Minnesota). Minnesota’s road defense has leaked more than its home split, while Green Bay’s offense plays more efficiently at home than on neutral ground. Divisional familiarity often aids offenses with quick adjustments. One or two short fields can push this into the mid-40s. Pick: Over 41.5 (-110 at FanDuel).
Tip 3: Moneyline — Green Bay Packers
Our final betting prediction: Moneyline — Green Bay Packers at very competitive odds with bet365. If you prefer to keep it simple, the moneyline follows the matchup logic. Green Bay’s home profile under LaFleur has been dependable, and recent form favors the Packers. Minnesota’s tendency to be in late-game coin flips is real, but the Packers’ situational edge in take-care-of-the-football moments makes them the safer side. Pick: Packers ML.
Team news
- Green Bay Packers: Corner Jaire Alexander (knee) has been ruled out per recent team updates. Linebacker Quay Walker (ankle), safety Evan Williams (quadriceps), and tackle Andre Dillard (concussion) are also listed out. Safety Javon Bullard (ankle), wide receiver Christian Watson (knee), and linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper (ankle) carry questionable tags. Keep an eye on Jordan Love, who reportedly avoided a significant knee issue recently; indications have been positive, but status is always worth monitoring as kickoff approaches.
- Minnesota Vikings: Corner Fabian Moreau (hip) has been ruled out. Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (hamstring) is questionable. Minnesota’s offense is still centered on Sam Darnold facilitating to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and the Vikings will want their offensive line intact for a loud Lambeau environment.
Green Bay Packers performance check
Matt LaFleur has his team playing a balanced brand of ball. Through 10 games, Green Bay averages 24.0 points while allowing just 19.6. At Lambeau, the defense tightens notably, allowing just 15.0 per game on average, complementing an offense that typically starts fast and protects possessions. In their last five overall, they’ve gone 3-2, and they’re coming off a composed 27-20 road win over the Giants that showcased late-game management, situational play-action, and enough ground success to keep the chains moving.
Jordan Love has trended toward safer decision-making, and that pairs well with a rushing attack that can grind out first downs and shorten the game. When the Packers win the early-down battle, their pass rush closes. With Alexander sidelined, Green Bay’s depth on the back end will be tested by Minnesota’s top-tier route runners, but the pass rush and scheme disguise have helped protect those corners. At home, the Packers’ per-game averages suggest a tug-of-war that Green Bay is built to control.
How is the current performance of the Minnesota Vikings
Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings are 4-6 but still dangerous in short spurts thanks to a quarterback who can push the ball and a pair of wideouts who win at the catch point. Minnesota’s season averages sit at 21.8 points scored and 23.2 allowed, and away from home, they’ve put up 21.2 while conceding 25.2. The narrower margins on offense make red-zone efficiency a deciding factor in their road results.
The recent stretch includes four losses in five games, punctuated by a 17-19 home loss to Chicago. Even so, the Vikings have the kind of explosive playmakers who tilt drives: Jefferson’s route separation, Addison’s red-zone craft, and a scheme that manufactures space with motion and quick hitters. Defensively, Minnesota needs to clean up early-down run fits and avoid giving Green Bay short fields, especially in a cold-weather environment that can compress passing windows.
Team Statistics
- Packers scoring/allowing, season average: 24.0 scored, 19.6 allowed. – Packers home averages: 20.2 scored, 15.0 allowed. Home record: 3-2. – Vikings scoring/allowing, season average: 21.8 scored, 23.2 allowed. – Vikings road averages: 21.2 scored, 25.2 allowed. Road record: 3-2. – Last five (form): Packers 3-2, Vikings 1-4.
- Market angles: Green Bay favored in the mid-single digits; total around 41.5. The Green Bay home defensive profile is the headline stat, with a per-game allowance that has frustrated visiting offenses. Minnesota’s averages show they can score, but their road concessions increase, elevating the likelihood of Green Bay control and a total that creeps into the mid-40s with a couple of short fields.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks: Jordan Love has trended toward interception-averse play in recent weeks, crucial in a divisional meeting. Sam Darnold has been aggressive vertically, giving Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison chances to make plays outside the numbers.
- Skill talent: Josh Jacobs’ usage since midseason suggests a steady diet on early downs, with a workload that has produced an average in the mid-80s on the ground over the second half of the season. Minnesota’s duo of Jefferson and Addison has shown momentum, with multi-score outings popping up recently without the need to live off high-volume yardage totals.
- Injuries: Green Bay’s secondary is banged up, so the pass rush must set the tone. Minnesota’s questions at linebacker and corner could open seams for Green Bay’s underneath passing and ground game.
- External factors: Lambeau in late November usually means cold and potential wind. Even if precipitation isn’t a factor, footing and ball handling matter. Green Bay’s home comfort and crowd noise should be a subtle edge on third downs and in the red zone.
Last direct match: Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
The most recent head-to-head went to Minnesota, 27-25, a tight finish that underscored how narrow this rivalry can be. Minnesota found just enough offense late and held on. That one-score margin is a reminder that even when the market leans Green Bay, the Vikings’ skill talent keeps them within striking distance if they protect the football.
Performance last 5 matches
- Green Bay Packers: 3 wins, 2 losses — trending positive, with steadier offense and opportunistic defense.
- Minnesota Vikings: 1 win, 4 losses — competitive stretches but not enough finishing drives, and a few late-game situations slipping away.
Last match results Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings
- Packers: 27-20 road win against the New York Giants — played from in front and managed the fourth quarter with poise.
- Vikings: 17-19 home loss to the Chicago Bears — defense kept them in it, but stalled drives and missed opportunities were costly.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re aligning our card with the Packers’ home defensive averages and the matchup edges at Lambeau. First, we like Green Bay -5.5 at -115 based on their home points-allowed profile and trench play. Second, we see value on Over 41.5 at -110 given the season scoring averages and potential for short fields. Third, if you want a safer angle, the Packers’ moneyline fits a parlay anchor or a conservative straight play. This trio balances risk and return in a divisional setting shaped by home-field edge and situational efficiency.
