Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers 09/28/2025

If you like your football with a little breakfast and a side of international flair, this one’s for you. The Steelers are the designated home team at Croke Park on Sunday morning, but it’s the Vikings who storm into Dublin riding the high of a 48-10 demolition of Cincinnati. That blowout was fueled by an opportunistic defense, headlined by cornerback Isaiah Rodgers’ historic two-score, turnover-fest, and a punishing ground attack led by Jordan Mason’s 116 yards and two touchdowns. With rookie J.J. McCarthy sidelined, Carson Wentz kept the offense on track, tossing two efficient touchdowns without mistakes. Health remains the subplot for Minnesota, with Aaron Jones on IR and several other starters nursing injuries.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, comes in shorthanded on the other side of the ball. Joey Porter Jr., Alex Highsmith, and DeShon Elliott are all sidelined, a tough blow for a defense already leaking against the run. If the Vikings replicate their Cincinnati formula, leaning on the ground game and flipping the turnover script, the Steelers could find themselves chasing the scoreboard early. For Mike Tomlin’s crew, patching up the defensive leaks in their Dublin showcase will be every bit as important as finding the end zone.

Through three weeks, the numbers tell a clear story. Minnesota sits at 2-1, averaging a healthy 31.7 points per game while surrendering just 19.0, an early-season split that reflects balance on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh matches that 2-1 record but has been less convincing statistically, averaging 24.0 points per game while giving up 25.7. Recent form leans purple: the Vikings’ two wins have come by comfortable margins, and their most recent head-to-head with the Steelers was a 36-28 victory sealed by explosive offense. Pittsburgh’s road résumé has been strong, but neutral-site football with an undermanned defense adds layers of uncertainty. Neutral turf, an early kickoff, and two 2-1 teams with very different Week 3 vibes—this one has “betting angle buffet” written all over it.

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Our betting predictions for the match Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Main Tip: Totals Over 40.5 Points

Our primary betting prediction: Totals Over 40.5 points at best odds -110 with Fanatics Sportsbook. With Pittsburgh averaging 24.0 points per game and Minnesota at 27.0, the combined offensive pace suggests this line is within range. The Vikings’ defense has been stingier to date, but the Steelers have found timely offense and should benefit from scripted plays early. Add in special teams variance in a travel game, and the Over has a clear path. Tip: Over 40.5 at -110 with Fanatics Sportsbook.

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Tip 2: Moneyline — Steelers to Win

Our second betting tip: Moneyline — Steelers to win. The best price currently sits at DraftKings Sportsbook with competitive odds on Pittsburgh. The edge here goes to Mike Tomlin’s group in a situational spot that tends to reward discipline, defense, and field position. Pittsburgh’s recent form (3 wins in their last five) and a 21-14 road result last week support the lean. Tip: Steelers ML.

Tip 3: Spread – Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

Our final prediction: Spread — Steelers -2.5 at standard juice -110 with DraftKings. If you like the Black and Gold on the moneyline, the small number is reasonable to press. The matchup looks like a one-score game, but Pittsburgh’s ability to manufacture pressure and shorten drives could be the separator late. Minnesota’s offense travels, yet the Steelers’ situational defense and coaching in overseas setups make laying under a field goal a measured play. Tip: Steelers -2.5 -110 with DraftKings.

Team news

Travel week dynamics always matter. Expect both staffs to emphasize early-game rhythm and special teams execution. Situational football in the opening quarter could swing the middle eight minutes (final four of the first half, first four of the second half)—typically a Tomlin hallmark. On the Minnesota side, Kevin O’Connell’s offense has been crisp out of the gate this season, balancing tempo and efficiency. No major schematic curveballs are expected, but personnel groupings could be tweaked to handle the unique venue and footing.

Pittsburgh Steelers performance check

Head coach: Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 2-1 and come in off a 21-14 road win at New England, a grind-it-out performance that fits their identity. Through three games, Pittsburgh averages 24.0 points per game and allows 25.7. The home split hasn’t popped yet (0-1), but there’s enough tape showing a team comfortable in tight, physical contests. Recent five-match form sits at 3 wins and 2 losses, a steady trajectory. The pass rush has been timely, forcing hurried throws and flipping field position even when the offense isn’t rolling at top speed. Pittsburgh’s offense has leaned on situational throws and red-zone opportunism rather than explosive yardage—again, a profile that travels well and stays live in lower-variance game scripts.

Special teams can be a quiet difference-maker in these international slates. Coverage units and field goal ops get tested in unfamiliar stadiums, and the Steelers usually coach those details cleanly. Tomlin’s teams rarely gift extra possessions, and with an early kick, that discipline can equal points. The challenge here: Minnesota’s balanced attack and early-season efficiency. Pittsburgh will need to keep early downs on schedule to avoid long third downs that stress protection and timing.

How is the current performance of the Minnesota Vikings

Head coach: Kevin O’Connell. Minnesota is 2-1 with a perfect 1-0 road mark and just posted a 48-10 home statement against Cincinnati. The Vikings are averaging 27.0 points per game and allowing 18.7—strong early splits. Over their last five, they’re 2 wins and 3 losses, but momentum matters, and Week 3 was the kind of result that can reframe a team’s confidence. Minnesota’s offense has shown good sequencing, marrying pass concepts with run looks, and keeping the chains moving. On defense, they’ve tightened up, cutting off explosive plays and tackling better in space.

The Vikings bring an attack that can win in multiple ways: quick game to neutralize pressure, shot plays dialed up off play-action, and a run plan that isn’t volume-heavy but can be efficient enough to keep Pittsburgh honest. The key for Minnesota will be handling the Steelers’ pressure looks on third down and protecting field position. If they win the hidden yardage game, the Vikings have a strong path to another efficient scoring day.

Statistics

• – Last direct meeting: Minnesota won 36-28 at home. That tilt trended high-scoring and showcased Minnesota’s ability to stretch a defense horizontally and vertically when the game opens up.
• – Head-to-head (last 5): Vikings lead 3 wins to the Steelers’ 2.
• – Performance last 5 matches: Steelers 3 wins, 2 losses; Vikings 2 wins, 3 losses.
• – Last match results: Steelers 21-14 road win over New England; Vikings 48-10 home win over Cincinnati.

Team scoring averages this season:

• Pittsburgh Steelers: 24.0 points scored per game; 25.7 points allowed per game.
• Minnesota Vikings: 27.0 points scored per game; 18.7 points allowed per game.

Home/away indicators:

• Steelers: Home record 0-1, searching for a cleaner start in their designated home slot.
• Vikings: Away record 1-0, with O’Connell’s offense translating well on the road.

Contextual note: We’re in Week 4, and through three games, the trendlines are forming. Pittsburgh tends to pull games into the mud with pressure and situational defense, while Minnesota has been the more efficient scoring outfit per game so far. In a neutral-site environment like Croke Park, early execution and turnover margin loom large.

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TrustnBet Final Thoughts

We’re walking into Sunday with three angles that fit both the numbers and the situational profile. First, Over 40.5. The combined scoring averages and the potential for short fields off pressure or special teams plays suggest a path to the mid-40s. Second, the Steelers’ moneyline (DraftKings Sportsbook). Tomlin’s teams tend to travel well, and their defensive discipline plus game-management strengths offer a narrow but meaningful edge. Third, Steelers -2.5. If you’re riding the moneyline, the small spread gives you a better payout for essentially the same handicap: Pittsburgh squeezes a one-score win by creating one or two crucial possessions that tilt field position.

Minnesota has the firepower to make this tricky; their 27.0 points per game is no mirage, and their defense has tightened up. But in a travel spot with an early window, we’ll trust the Steelers’ ability to win the middle eight, prevent back-breaking miscues, and find just enough chunk plays to separate late. That’s why we’re aligning our card with the Over, Steelers ML, and Steelers -2.5. Manage your stake sizing, respect the variance in a unique venue, and enjoy a Sunday morning kickoff with meaningful leverage for both teams as they jockey within their divisions.