Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks 11/30/2025
We’ve got a late-afternoon Week 13 tilt in Seattle, where Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks look to keep humming at home against a banged-up Minnesota squad trying to steady itself on the road. Recent form matters when you’re lining up a bet, and the splits here are telling: Seattle is 8-3, 4-1 over its last five, and trending up; Minnesota is 4-7, 1-4 over its last five, and battling quarterback uncertainty with J.J. McCarthy in concussion protocol. That type of instability tends to move numbers, and we’ve seen it — the spread ticked toward Seattle through the week.
From a betting perspective, the contours are familiar: a heavy moneyline favorite in the Seahawks, a meaty spread north of 10, and a total that sits in the low 40s where game script, injuries, and tempo really matter. The weather in Seattle should be cool and manageable, but the matchup edges are less about conditions and more about who’s available and who’s playing clean. The Seahawks have been efficient and opportunistic, while the Vikings have struggled to finish drives and protect the football. Let’s get into our three best wagers on this one — with one eye on market value and the other on how these teams have actually been trending on the field.
Thinking long-term? Check the NFL futures betting odds and see where the early value lives.
Our betting predictions: Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Main Tip: Spread pick – Vikings +12.5
Betting tip 1: Spread pick: Vikings +12.5 at -125 with bet365. This is the most interesting angle on the board. Seattle is winning, but recent home margins haven’t all been blowouts, and Minnesota’s defense — while inconsistent — has enough veteran presence to hang around if it can keep the explosives in check. Our projection makes Vikings +12.5 a 56% cover (fair price about -127), so at -125 with bet365 you’re in range for a modest edge. With McCarthy in the protocol and Max Brosmer in the on-deck circle, the game plan likely leans conservative: shorter throws, ball control, and an emphasis on keeping this inside two touchdowns. Backdoor potential is live in that script.
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Tip 2: Game Total – Under 41.5
Betting tip 2: Total: Under 41.5 at -115 with bet365. Seattle’s offense has been in rhythm, but this total is as much about Minnesota’s limitations as it is about the Seahawks’ strength. If Geno Smith plays and Kenneth Walker III is back to a full workload, Seattle can still lean on the ground game and grind clock with a lead. The Vikings, if starting a backup, are incentivized to slow the game and protect possessions. Our model lands at 54% for the Under (fair price about -117), so -115 is playable. Cool temperatures and minimal wind at Lumen Field aren’t deal-breakers for offense, but the combination of tempo and quarterback uncertainty points to fewer total snaps and fewer chunk plays.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Seahawks to Win
Moneyline: Seahawks to win at DraftKings. This is chalky, no question, but it matches the on-field edge. Seattle has been consistent and balanced, and Minnesota’s quarterback situation tilts the floor toward the home side. We peg the Seahawks’ win probability around 87%, which would translate to roughly -669 fair odds — the posted is steep but understandable given current form and injuries. If you’re playing the moneyline straight, understand you’re paying a premium; it makes more sense as a conservative anchor in multi-leg strategies than as a standalone.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Seattle Seahawks (home) — strong, balanced, and trending upward
- Record: 8-3 overall, 3-2 at home, 5-1 away. That’s a 72.7% win rate, 27.3% loss rate. Second in the NFC West race.
- Scoring profile: 324 points over 11 games translates to about 29.5 points per game. The defense has allowed 217 over 11, about 19.7 per game. That’s a healthy margin on average, and it shows up in late-game control.
- Last five: 4 wins, 1 loss; most recent result a 30-24 road win in Tennessee.
- Offense/defense notes: Over the last five, the offense is averaging roughly 31.6 per game — and that’s with the backfield not fully healthy until now. With Kenneth Walker III returning and Geno Smith cleared, the run-pass balance should be stable.
- Betting form: 8-2 against the spread across the last 10. At home as a favorite, the market has generally been catching up to Seattle’s late-season push.
- Coaching: Mike Macdonald’s group is playing with situational discipline, and that’s showing up in red-zone execution and fourth-quarter management.
Minnesota Vikings (away) — searching for rhythm, leaning on defense to stay close
- Record: 4-7 overall, 3-3 away, 1-4 at home. That’s a 36.4% win rate, 63.6% loss rate. Fourth in the NFC North.
- Scoring profile: 224 points over 11 games is about 20.4 per game. The defense has allowed 255 over 11, about 23.2 per game. The gap is tight enough to stay competitive, but the offense has struggled to convert drives into touchdowns consistently.
- Last five: 1 win, 4 losses; most recent game a 23-6 road loss at Green Bay.
- Offensive struggles: Justin Jefferson’s recent three-game average sits at about 48.7 yards, a function of quarterback inconsistency and protection issues. If Max Brosmer starts, expect a shorter passing menu and heavier reliance on the backs and tight ends to stay ahead of the sticks.
- Betting form: 3-7 against the spread over the last 10; when the offense stalls early, the script often forces more risk late.
- Health/availability: McCarthy is in concussion protocol; if he sits, experience at quarterback takes a hit, further nudging the Vikings toward a ball-control plan to keep this within two scores.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Geno Smith has been cleared after a knee scare, and Kenneth Walker III is set for a full-go workload — that steadies Seattle’s identity on offense. Sam Darnold’s recent appearance showed the Seahawks can still move the ball with structure, but Geno’s return is the headline. For Minnesota, McCarthy’s protocol status looms; if Max Brosmer starts, expect a conservative plan and a faster route to the Under. Justin Jefferson’s last three outings (48, 61, 37 yards) average 48.7 per game — a snapshot of the current passing-game challenges. The weather in Seattle should be cool with minimal wind. Trends say home-favorite Seahawks games have often gone Over, but the Vikings’ situation and Seattle’s ability to salt away leads on the ground temper that. Net: personnel health favors Seattle, while pace and QB uncertainty support Vikings +12.5 and a lean to the Under.
Last direct match: Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings
The last head-to-head finished 27-24 with Minnesota winning on the road — a tight, one-possession game that suggests these franchises often play it close.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Seattle Seahawks: 4 wins, 1 loss.
- Minnesota Vikings: 1 win, 4 losses.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re lining up on three angles built from the same core read. First, Seahawks’ moneyline is the safest outcome pick; they’re the healthier, more stable side, and at home they’ve consistently dictated terms — but the price at -714 is heavy, so size bets accordingly. Second, Vikings +12.5 at -125 is the most actionable number: our projection gives them a slight edge to cover, especially if they plan to shorten the game and ride defense and field position. Third, under 41.5 at -115 aligns with both the likely Vikings approach and Seattle’s willingness to grind with a lead behind a healthy backfield.
Put it together, and the path we’re betting is this: Seattle controls the game, Minnesota prevents the avalanche, and the clock keeps moving. Seahawks win (probability around 87%, fair -669); Vikings cover the +12.5 more often than the price suggests (56% cover rate, fair -127); and the total lands Under 41.5 at a small but playable edge (54%, fair -117). Bet responsibly, enjoy the late window at Lumen Field, and keep an eye on the inactives — quarterback updates can nudge totals and spreads right up until kickoff.
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