New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills 01/04/2026
Week 18 in the AFC East, under the lights in Orchard Park, with the regular season winding down and playoff positioning on the line for Buffalo. That’s the setup at Highmark Stadium as the Bills host the Jets, and yes, it’s exactly the kind of late-season divisional spot bettors circle. Buffalo’s been the steadier side all season, while New York has been searching for answers and playing out the string. It’s the 17th game of the 18-week NFL slate, a single-elimination playoff race looming, and a classic AFC vs. AFC East rivalry.
From a betting standpoint, you’ve got a heavy home favorite led by Sean McDermott in a matchup where Buffalo’s scoring profile and recent form outweigh New York’s defensive spikiness and “nothing to lose” mindset. The market says the Bills’ moneyline in chalk territory, a two-score spread, and a total low enough to make you think about divisional tendencies. Let’s unpack how the numbers and context point us to a smart card for Saturday.
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Our betting predictions for the New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Main Tip: Game Totals – Under 40.5 Points
1) Under 40.5 points at -115 with bet365. Why: Despite Buffalo’s strong offense, divisional familiarity often squeezes possessions and red-zone efficiency. New York’s offense has averaged 18.3 points per game across 16 outings, and its away profile sits at 19.6 points per game. Buffalo is capable of early control here, but under McDermott, they’ve routinely throttled pace once ahead, leaning on defense and situational football. Our projection pegs this total closer to 39.0, and we estimate about a 56% chance this stays under, compared with the break-even around 53.5% at -115 with bet365.
Before you place a bet, see what matters—read our unbiased bet365 review for transparent insights.
Tip 2: Spread – Buffalo Bills -11.5
2) Buffalo Bills -11.5 at -110 with bet365. Why: The Bills are 11-5 and trending right, 4-1 over their last five, and their average scoring margin profile at home is strong: 30.8 scored and 25.4 allowed per home game. New York’s defense can flash, but the Jets’ away defense has allowed 31.6 per game to this point, and Buffalo’s script fits a multi-score cushion. We project a 54% probability the Bills cover this number (break-even 52.4% at -110), with Josh Allen’s playmaking and a balanced Bills game plan pushing late separation.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Buffalo Bills
3) Moneyline: Buffalo Bills at an attractive odds with DraftKings. Why: The market is telling you Buffalo wins this matchup far more often than not, and our model agrees. We place the Bills’ win probability around 85%, which corresponds to roughly -567 fair odds at DraftKings. The Jets’ path to an upset is built on forcing takeaways and shortening the game, but Buffalo’s overall efficiency edge is sizable.
Team Statistics and form guide
Buffalo Bills (Home) – Sean McDermott’s group in control
- Form and results: Buffalo has taken four of its last five, with the lone stumble a 12-13 home loss to Philadelphia. That’s a tight game against a top NFC team, and otherwise, the Bills have played like a team that expects January football.
- Scoring profile: Across 16 games, Buffalo averages 27.9 points per game and allows 22.3. At Highmark, the Bills’ offense has been even better, averaging 30.8 per game, while the defense has yielded 25.4 at home. That blend is favorable for winning scripts, especially in a divisional setting.
- Efficiency notes: We won’t throw raw totals at you—averages tell the story. The Bills’ balanced attack keeps them on schedule, and when they get ahead, the defense can pin its ears back and close. Turnover avoidance remains key, but Buffalo’s overall efficiency profile is that of a clear AFC East contender.
- Standings context: Within the AFC East, Buffalo is the class of the division right now, and they’re playing for seeding and momentum more than a miracle. It’s the right kind of home spot with January around the corner.
- Defensive pulse: Recent weeks show renewed edge up front. The pass rush has rushed throws and limited explosives, and that’s precisely the matchup component that can choke off a Jets offense that has struggled to sustain drives.
New York Jets (Away) – A tough season, looking for one more swing
- Form and results: The Jets have dropped four of five, most recently a 10-42 home loss to the Patriots. It’s been a slog, and the final week offers pride and evaluation snaps more than anything else.
- Scoring profile: New York averages 18.3 points per game, allowing 29.3. On the road so far, the Jets are at 19.6 scored and 31.6 allowed per game—a tough split in a building where Buffalo generally starts fast.
- Identity snapshot: The defense still has teeth and can punch above its weight for stretches, but extended drives on offense have been elusive. In divisional matchups, that tends to show up as field position losses and short-field concessions.
- Standings context: Also in the AFC East, the Jets are eliminated from playoff contention and are working through organizational changes, including moving on from Aaron Rodgers and rallying behind coach Aaron Glenn for this finale. That can free up the approach, but the talent and execution gap remains the handicapper’s central issue.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Josh Allen’s dual-threat presence remains the stress point for New York; even when the Jets muddy passing lanes, Allen’s legs tilt key downs. Buffalo’s defense has tightened, with impact pieces trending healthier under Sean McDermott and situational football improving. Special teams note: with kicking changes in play this season, McDermott has shown a willingness to lean into fourth-down aggression, which can shorten games and help Unders. For the Jets, the defense’s best card is taking the ball away—historically, they’ve given Allen more trouble than most opponents—but sustained offense has been the hurdle. Weather isn’t projected as a big factor at the moment, and travel is minimal. In short: Buffalo’s momentum and personnel stability outweigh New York’s volatility, and the risk of a backdoor cover is the main sweat on the spread.
Last direct match: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
Buffalo handled the most recent meeting on the road, a 30-10 win, reinforcing how the matchup can tilt when the Bills control tempo and field position.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Buffalo Bills: 4 wins, 1 loss
- New York Jets: 1 win, 4 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card lines up with the game script: Buffalo asserts itself early, the Jets’ offense strains to keep pace, and the divisional familiarity dampens explosive trading. That’s why the Under 40.5 is our favorite angle: late-season divisional games often condense, and Buffalo’s tendency to slam the brakes with a lead fits that thesis. The Bills -11.5 pairs with that view—Buffalo’s home averages and New York’s away defense point to a multi-score window, though the backdoor is the sweat if the fourth quarter slows into exchanges of punts. The moneyline is straightforward chalk with limited value, but it anchors parlays or conservative approaches in a game where our win probability (about 85%) closely mirrors the market.
Bottom line: we’re backing the Under first, then the Bills to cover, and finally the Bills moneyline as a safe anchor. The AFC East angle, McDermott’s situational steadiness, and Buffalo’s efficiency edges make these three plays the right combination for Week 18 in Orchard Park.
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