Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers 12/07/2025
Two teams with January on their minds square off under the Monday Night Football lights at SoFi Stadium: Eagles at Chargers, Monday, Dec. 8, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET. From a betting angle, it’s a tight capper. Philadelphia rolls in at 8-4 but on a two-game skid, trying to steady the offense against one of the stingiest pass defenses in football. Los Angeles is 8-5 and has won four of five, leaning into a balanced, physical rushing attack behind head coach Jim Harbaugh while their secondary clamps down.
Oddsmakers have Philadelphia as the road favorite on the moneyline, with the total spotlit around 41. The market clearly respects the Eagles’ overall roster, turnover discipline, and late-game poise—despite the recent losses. On the Chargers’ side, uncertainty around Justin Herbert’s left hand looms over this handicap, but Harbaugh’s group has embraced a run-first identity that travels well into December. With an elite pass defense and a measured pace, the board offers value in the total and a strong case on the spread.
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Our betting predictions: Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers
Best Pick: Total Under 41.0 Points
1) Total Under 41.0 points (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook). Why: The matchup leans slower and more physical than headline names suggest. Philly’s offense averages 22.5 points per game while the Chargers allow only about 21.0 per game and rank top three in yards allowed per game with elite pass coverage. Los Angeles’s offense averages 23.1 points, but the Herbert hand situation (and a renewed commitment to the ground game) points to a conservative script. Prime-time nerves plus the Eagles’ mini-bye advantage set up a field-position game. – Probability estimate: 58% to land Under (fair around -125), so there’s value at -125.
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Tip 2: Spread – Eagles -2.5
Betting tip 2: Philadelphia -2.5 at -120 with Caesars. Why: The Eagles’ turnover margin (+5) and low giveaway rate tilt close games, and their front can exploit Los Angeles’s pass protection—especially if the Chargers are protecting the QB with more quick game and runs. Philly’s per-game profile is modest on offense, but they still average slightly more points than L.A. allows, and Nick Sirianni typically manages situational football well late. Probability estimate: 56% to cover, modest edge at -120.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Philadelphia Eagles
Betting tip 3: Philadelphia to win at best odds with bet365. Why: The Chargers’ defense is legit, but if Herbert is limited or if game plan constraints remain in place, Philadelphia’s defensive front becomes the swing factor. The Eagles are steadier on the margins (turnovers, late-game reps) and enter with a slight rest advantage after the Friday game the previous week. Probability estimate: 60% to win, aligned with the market.
Team Statistics: Chargers tightening the screws on defense
- Record and form: Los Angeles is 8-5 overall (61.5% wins) and 4-1 over its last five, fresh off a 31-14 home win over Las Vegas. At home, the Chargers are 5-2 (71.4%).
- Division picture: Second in the AFC West with a strong in-division mark, positioned squarely in the wild-card mix.
- Offense (per game): 346.8 total yards (top 10), 23.1 points, 224.7 passing yards, 122.1 rushing yards. With Harbaugh, the Chargers have recommitted to the run—30+ attempts in four of the last five games—controlling tempo and limiting exposure.
- Defense (per game): Third-fewest yards allowed overall (275.3), second-fewest passing yards allowed (168.3), and a respectable 106.9 rushing yards allowed. Points allowed sit right around 21.0, derived from season scoring conceded.
- Style notes: The secondary is built to erase big plays, forcing long drives. If they stay balanced offensively and win early downs, they’ll keep the game on script even if the passing game is dialed back.
- Situational trends: Los Angeles’s recent wins have come with a rush-led blueprint and a defense that closes out in the fourth quarter.
Team Statistics: Eagles looking to stabilize on the road
- Record and form: Philadelphia is 8-4 (66.7% wins) but has dropped two straight, including a 24-15 stumble on Black Friday. On the road, the Eagles are 4-2 (66.7%).
- Division picture: Still first in the NFC East with Dallas applying pressure. The closing schedule provides opportunities to lock up the crown, but avoiding a three-game slide is the immediate task.
- Offense (per game): 304.8 yards (bottom-third), 22.5 points, 196.3 passing yards, 108.5 rushing yards. The Eagles rank low in offensive success rate, but their low turnover count props up overall efficiency in tight games.
- Defense (per game): 347.2 yards allowed, 20.8 points allowed, 218.3 passing yards allowed, 128.9 rushing yards allowed. The recent dip has been on the ground, where they’ve allowed elevated efficiency.
- Style notes: Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat gravity and the perimeter receivers demand attention; even during a slump, their designed QB runs and RPO elements can stabilize drives. The defensive front remains their calling card for creating negative plays and timely pressure.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Justin Herbert’s left-hand situation is the headline. Even if he plays, a conservative plan is likely, amplifying the Chargers’ run-first tilt. If a backup is pressed into duty, expect even more ground volume.
- The Chargers’ pass defense is elite by the numbers, shrinking windows, and forcing methodical drives.
- Philadelphia arrives with a mini-bye after a Friday game, plus a top-10 turnover margin (+5), both meaningful edges on the road.
- Under the MNF lights, tempo often tightens. The matchup points to fewer explosives, more possessions ending in field goals, and late-game situational football deciding things.
Last direct match
The last time these two met, Los Angeles edged Philadelphia 27-24 on the road, decided by a narrow margin in the fourth quarter.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Los Angeles Chargers: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Philadelphia Eagles: 3 wins, 2 losses
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re backing three angles rooted in matchup math and situational context. First, the Under 41.0 (-125) gets top billing: elite Chargers pass defense, potential Herbert limitations, Eagles’ recent pace, and prime-time game flow all point to fewer total points than the market implies. Second, Eagles -2.5 (-120) is a lean thanks to turnover advantage, rest edge, and the likelihood that Philly’s front flips one or two possessions. Third, Eagles moneyline rides with the better late-game profile and a coaching staff adept at two-minute and four-minute situations.
How we got here: the Chargers are playing their best ball on defense and on the ground, but the Eagles’ edges in ball security and situational playmaking—combined with uncertainty around Los Angeles’s passing ceiling—nudge this toward a road win in a low-to-mid scoring script. Our projected probabilities: 58% Under, 56% Eagles -2.5, and 60% Eagles moneyline. That’s enough to fire on all three, with the total as the headline play.
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