Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders 12/20/2025
A Saturday NFC East showcase in Week 16 with money on the line? Yeah, we’ll take it. Philadelphia rolls into Washington on December 20 (5:00 PM ET), with Nick Sirianni’s 9-5 Eagles pushing for playoff seeding in the NFC, while Dan Quinn’s 4-10 Commanders are trying to keep building momentum and spoil a rival’s December plans. From a betting standpoint, this sets up as a classic divisional number: a road favorite that profiles as the better team, a home dog that’s played harder than its record suggests, and a total that’s tight enough to force a call on pace and game script.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Washington has been inconsistent, but when they’re at home, they score at a higher clip than you’d think (24.7 points per game at home so far) and tend to hang around. Philly, meanwhile, has held opponents to 19.4 points per game on the season and has traveled well enough (20.9 points per game on the road) to justify its status. You’ve got a rivalry, you’ve got recent form trending slightly upward for both after last week’s wins, and you’ve got a betting board that rewards getting the timing right. Let’s dive into the numbers, rhythm, and angles that matter most for bettors.
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Our betting predictions: Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Main Tip: Spread – Washington Commanders +6
1) Spread pick: Washington Commanders +6 at -115 (best price at FanDuel). Explanation: Divisional dogs catching a full six often carry value, and Washington’s home scoring average (24.7) suggests they can trade punches long enough to cover. Dan Quinn’s defense has been up and down, but it’s aggressive enough to force a couple of drive stalls and keep this within a one-score script. Our estimated cover probability: 54%. Betting tip: Take Washington +6 at -115 with FanDuel.
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Tip 2: Total – Under 45.5
2) Total: Under 45.5 at -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Explanation: Philly’s defense has allowed just 19.4 per game this season, and when the Eagles go on the road, their offense shifts a bit more methodically (20.9 per game away). In a rivalry spot with late-December stakes and two coaching staffs comfortable leaning on field position, this profiles as a possession-by-possession game more than a track meet. Our estimated under probability: 55%. Betting tip: Under 45.5 at -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Eagles to Win
3) Moneyline: Eagles to win at bet365 at (best price), with an implied probability around 73%. Our projection puts Philly around 70–73% to win, Washington roughly 27–30% (the best home price is +225 at BetMGM Sportsbook). The Eagles’ superior season-long point differential (+3.5 per game) and consistent defensive baseline on the road are the deciding edges. Betting tip: Eagles moneyline if you’re parlaying or comfortable laying a big number.
Team Statistics and form guide
Washington Commanders (Home) — The Dan Quinn effect is showing up in spurts. Washington sits at 4-10 overall (28.6% win rate), with a 2-4 mark at home. The Commanders’ season scoring profile: 20.8 points per game, 26.8 allowed, a -6.0 average margin that tells you the defense has been on the field a lot. But peel back the split: at home, Washington puts up 24.7 per game and surrenders 27.3 — more shootout-friendly than their road profile, but in a way that creates back-door or late-cover potential when catching points. Over the last five, Washington is 1-4, but they’re coming off a one-score road win against the Giants that showed better situational football in the fourth quarter. For the division context, the Commanders are chasing the pack in the NFC East and playing spoiler — not a bad setup for an against-the-number play as a home dog. Without citing cumulative totals for yards or touchdowns, the trend we care about is red-zone variance: the offense has been better at home, and Quinn’s defense has been opportunistic at key moments even with the losses mounting.
Philadelphia Eagles (Away) — Sirianni’s crew is 9-5 (64.3% win rate), 4-3 on the road (57.1%), and allowing just 19.4 per game overall. That defensive baseline travels — the Eagles allow 21.6 per game away and score 20.9 — giving them a steady, grind-it-out road profile. Philly’s last five sits at 2-3, but the most recent outing was a dominant shutout at home, and that typically translates to a conservative, field-position-first approach the following week on the road. In the NFC East race, Philly is in the mix for the division and firmly in the playoff picture. The formula that keeps them there: controlling the middle of the field, winning early downs, and reducing explosive plays allowed. Again, we’re focused on per-game averages, not raw totals, and those averages support why the moneyline leans heavily toward Philly — even as the spread leaves room for Washington to make this tight.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Recent history between these rivals got loud last January, when Philly rolled in the postseason, and turnovers were the swing factor. That still matters: ball security and short fields can flip a December total Under.
- Jayden Daniels’ mobility stresses edge integrity and limit-man schemes; Dan Quinn’s defense tends to manufacture pressure and force hurried throws, creating variance.
- Philly’s offensive rhythm with Jalen Hurts and a physical run game usually travels; when the Eagles play from ahead, they shorten the game, which leans Under.
- External note: Saturday kick, divisional familiarity, and late-season legs point to a measured pace and heavy situational football. That supports Washington +6 and the Under more than a track meet script.
Last direct match
These teams last met in the postseason, where Philadelphia won decisively at home. That was a turnover-tilted game that got away from Washington early — a reminder that protecting the ball is non-negotiable in this rivalry.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Washington Commanders: 1 win, 4 losses
- Philadelphia Eagles: 2 wins, 3 losses
How the numbers shape the bet
- Moneyline probabilities: Eagles around 70–73% to win (best price at Bet365), Commanders roughly 27–30% (+225 at BetMGM Sportsbook). If you’re betting straight ML, you’re paying for Philly’s defensive average and road consistency.
- Spread math: Catching a full six with Washington is valuable in a divisional setting. Our projection says 54% to cover +6 at -115.
- Total projection: With Philly allowing 19.4 per game and playing slower on the road, our model nudges Under 45.5 at -110 roughly 55% of the time.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re lining up three plays and keeping it simple. First, Washington +6 at -115: divisional dog, home scoring bump, and a defense that can create just enough negative plays to keep this within a possession. Second, under 45.5 at -110: Philly’s road profile leans methodical, Quinn’s defense is high-variance but aggressive, and late-December divisional football often compresses possessions. Third, Eagles moneyline (bet365): if you’re building a parlay or just want the win, the Eagles’ per-game differential and defensive averages justify the chalk. In probability terms, we’ve got Philly around 70–73% to win, Washington around 27–30% with the +225 moneyline price in the market, a 54% shot the Commanders cover the +6, and a 55% lean to the Under.
Bottom line: Take the points with Washington, take the Under, and if you need a straight-up anchor, ride with the Eagles to get it done. Dan Quinn’s group fights, covers a number, but Philadelphia’s steadier per-game profile nudges them across the finish line.
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