Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens 12/07/2025
Two AFC North rivals step into the December chill at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET, and that means a game with playoff-style intensity and real betting angles. Both teams sit at 6-6 heading into Week 14, which is exactly the kind of razor’s edge that defines the AFC North every winter. The Steelers and Ravens know each other’s tendencies, they hit like trucks, and they play a brand of football that travels—and translates—to close spreads and smart totals plays.
With the NFL split into AFC and NFC, four divisions per conference, and seven playoff spots in each, every divisional result carries extra weight. Baltimore’s coached by the always-steady John Harbaugh, while Pittsburgh brings Mike Tomlin’s never-blink approach to a rivalry that rarely disappoints. If you’re tailoring your card for Sunday, there’s value in the totals and spread based on current form and per-game scoring profiles, while the moneyline tells a story about market respect for Baltimore at home.
Want a clearer idea of how the market views the Steelers? Explore Pittsburgh Steelers odds today and see how the line has moved leading up to kickoff.
Our betting predictions: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Main Tip: Totals – Over 45.5 Points
1) Over 45.5 points at -118 with DraftKings Sportsbook. Why: Based on this season’s scoring profiles through 12 games, Baltimore is averaging roughly 24.1 points per game, while Pittsburgh is at about 23.4. That’s a combined expectation of 47.5, a hair above the posted 45.5. Baltimore’s home scoring average is around 21.6 per game, but their road scoring rate (27.6) hints at pace when they’re pushed; Pittsburgh’s road offense sits around 24.8 points per game, and their defense on the road is allowing about 27.0. That cocktail leans toward a game that can crest the mid-40s. Our projection: 54% likelihood for Over 45.5, and with the market at -118 with DraftKings, it’s a slight edge to the Over.
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Tip 2: Spread – Ravens -6.5
Ravens -6.5 at -122 with DraftKings. Why: Baltimore has the cleaner recent form (4-1 in the last five), while Pittsburgh’s at 2-3 over its last five and just took a 7-26 home loss. The Ravens are the side with better current rhythm and a coaching edge at home under John Harbaugh. While Baltimore’s overall margin sits close to neutral on the year, the last five form and the Ravens’ ability to generate a couple more scoring drives per game than Pittsburgh makes the number workable. Our projection: 55% to cover -6.5 (fair line ~ -122), a small but actionable edge.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Ravens to Win
Moneyline: Ravens to win (Best listed: bet365). Why: As a straight-up play, the market is heavily leaning toward Baltimore at home. Using the listed prices, the implied probabilities line up roughly at 75.9% for the Ravens and 27.4% for Pittsburgh. Our projection is closer to 70% Ravens, which says the spread and the total are more attractive than laying the moneyline juice, but for bettors building parlays or needing a moneyline anchor, Ravens outright is still the pick.
Team Statistics: Current form and what it means
Baltimore Ravens (Home)
- Record/Trend: 6-6 overall, 3-4 at home, 4-1 in the last five. Last game was a home loss, 14-32 vs. Cincinnati, but the broader five-game arc shows the Ravens trending up overall.
- Scoring Profile: Through 12 games, Baltimore averages about 24.1 points per game and allows about 24.4. At home, the Ravens are putting up around 21.6 points per game and giving up about 24.9—so home games have skewed a bit tighter or lower-scoring for their own offense, but opponents have been able to move the ball enough to keep totals honest.
- Road vs. Home Split Indicator: Interestingly, Baltimore’s road offense (about 27.6 ppg) has been more explosive than at home, while their road defense (about 23.8 ppg allowed) has held serve. That tells us this team can punch in points regardless of setting; at home, the variance tends to tighten, but the rivalry context often brings late scoring swings.
- AFC North Context: Harbaugh’s group is positioned to push for a late-season run, and divisional wins are the currency that buys January football.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Away)
- Record/Trend: 6-6 overall, 2-3 on the road, 2-3 in the last five. The most recent result was a 7-26 home loss vs. Buffalo, which underscores some offensive inconsistency.
- Scoring Profile: Through 12, Pittsburgh averages about 23.4 points per game and allows roughly 24.1. On the road, their offense is around 24.8 points per game, but the defense is allowing about 27.0 on the road—a key flag for totals and spreads when handicapping this matchup.
- Style Notes: Pittsburgh often tries to keep games within one score with situational defense and field position, but this season’s road splits suggest they can be dragged into higher totals when the opponent can sustain drives.
- AFC North Context: A win at Baltimore swings wild-card math in their favor; a loss cranks up the pressure over the final month.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Baltimore usually leans on its QB-led run/pass blend to create explosive plays, and John Harbaugh’s game management in tight moments is a real edge. Pittsburgh’s path involves protecting the ball and forcing long fields, but its road defense has been more leaky than typical Steelers units. December weather in Baltimore can get chilly with wind off the harbor; if gusts pick up, that slightly favors the stronger ground game and red-zone efficiency over deep passing volume. Monitor practice reports for skill-position availability and trench health on both sides. In a rivalry game, special teams and short fields matter; the more disciplined sideline often cashes those hidden yards into three points at a time, which helps our Over and bolsters a favorite’s ability to cover.
Last direct match
Baltimore won the most recent head-to-head 28-14 at home. That familiarity—and the way the game tilted late—supports taking a hard look at Baltimore’s side again, especially at home.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Ravens: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Steelers: 2 wins, 3 losses
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This is a classic AFC North grinder with a little extra spice. The numbers say points are there: combined scoring averages land around 47.5, and Pittsburgh’s road defense has been giving up close to 27 per game. That lines up well with Over 45.5. It’s our top play because the path to cashing isn’t limited to one game script—explosive plays, short fields, or late-clock scoring can all push this past the number.
For the spread, Ravens -6.5 is next on our ticket. Baltimore’s recent form is stronger, and John Harbaugh’s crew closes games better at home, where situational defense and red-zone decision-making matter most. We project a mid-50s cover probability, so it’s a modest but real edge.
Moneyline is simple: Ravens to win if you’re building parlays or seeking a safer anchor. The market’s pricing implies around a three-in-four chance they close it out at home. With both teams at 6-6 and divisional urgency peaking, Baltimore’s balance and coaching tilt the field just enough for us to back them outright, while the stronger betting value resides in the Over and the spread.
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