Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets 09/07/2025
The NFL curtain lifts on Week 1 with Pittsburgh heading east to face the New York Jets on Sunday, September 7, 2025, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Stadium listing is currently unknown, but the betting market has already planted a flag: Pittsburgh is priced as the road favorite on the moneyline, while New York, a tempting home number if you believe in the Jets’ upside. Looking at recent form, the Jets split results across their last two reported games, averaging 24.5 points scored and 19.5 allowed (17-19 loss vs the Eagles; 32-20 win vs the Dolphins). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, clocked 16.5 points per outing and allowed 19.0 across their last two reported matchups (19-10 win at Carolina; 14-28 loss at Baltimore).
For Pittsburgh, shoring up the defense was the offseason priority after a five-game losing streak torpedoed their 2024 finish. The front office retooled aggressively, drafting defensive linemen Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black, trading for star corner Jalen Ramsey, and signing veteran CB Darius Slay to stabilize the secondary. Across the field, the Jets bring back six of their top nine defensive snap leaders from 2023, a unit that finished No. 3 in EPA and boasts talent at every level. One name to watch: Will McDonald IV, a seldom-used rookie in 2023 who has since emerged as one of New York’s premier edge rushers. Between Pittsburgh’s rebuilt defense and New York’s continuity-driven dominance, this Week 1 matchup has all the ingredients for a tight, physical opener.
Both teams enter a brand-new campaign at 0-0, planted in very different AFC neighborhoods. New York is hunting traction in the AFC East—stacked with fast starters and track-speed offenses—while Pittsburgh opens in the hard-nosed AFC North, where every inch is earned and every Sunday feels like a street fight. Remember the structure: the NFL regular season runs 18 weeks, 17 games per team, and only seven teams per conference (division winners plus three wild cards) survive to a single-elimination sprint toward the Super Bowl. With those stakes looming, this opener matters. It sets tone, tests offseason tweaks, and often reveals where a coaching staff wants to lean early. On tape and on paper, we’re staring at a grind-it-out tilt, but the totals market at 37.5 suggests the door is open for offense if either side finds rhythm.
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Our betting predictions for the match Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets
Main Tip: Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.0
First tip — Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.0 at best odds -125 with FanDuel. Our betting prediction: This number suggests a one-score game, but Pittsburgh’s structure under Mike Tomlin travels. The Steelers’ two most recent reported games show a modest 16.5 points per game on offense versus 19.0 allowed, yet the defense still looks calibrated to win the leverage moments. New York, across its last two reported, averaged 24.5 points scored, but sustaining that against a buttoned-up Steelers front seven is a different ask. Laying the small number with Pittsburgh at -125 feels like the most actionable edge.
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Tip 2: Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Second tip — Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers to win at best odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Our betting tip: The market is signaling trust in Pittsburgh’s floor. A Steelers moneyline at -149 leans into Tomlin’s Week 1 readiness and a defense that historically shows up with a plan. The Jets have value as a live home side, but with their last five NFL results at 2 wins and 3 losses, consistency is the question. Pittsburgh’s last five NFL results are 0 wins and 5 losses, but the offseason reset, plus that road win at Carolina (preseason included), hints at stabilization.
Third tip — Total: Over 37.5 points
Our prediction: The number is light enough that efficiency can beat volume. If either offense strings together a couple of early scripted drives, this total becomes very reachable. The Jets’ recent two-game average at 24.5 points scored suggests they can do their part, and Pittsburgh’s 16.5 per outing across their two most recent reported games is just enough to nudge the combined into the high 30s. Over 37.5 at -110 with DraftKings is the lean.
Team news
Week 1 brings fresh legs and clean slates. For New York, head coach Robert Saleh enters this season emphasizing complementary football—defense-driven, field-position minded, and opportunistic on offense. Pittsburgh, led by Mike Tomlin, remains exactly what you expect: situationally sharp, physical at the point of attack, and comfortable in close games. With the venue listed as unknown, plan for a Jets home game atmosphere and the kind of early-season energy that can swing momentum on special teams and turnovers.
New York Jets performance check
Aaron Glenn’s team closed preseason and last season’s finale with a mixed bag: a 17-19 home loss to the Eagles and a 32-20 home win over the Dolphins. Across those two reported matchups, the Jets averaged 24.5 points for and 19.5 against—balanced, with enough juice to suggest the offense can carry its weight. Over their last five NFL outings (season-spanning), New York sits at 2 wins and 3 losses; across the last five in all competitions, they’re also 2 wins and 3 losses. The H2H trend over the last five meetings tilts slightly their way, 3 wins to 2, and that matters in a Week 1 confidence game.
In the AFC East, standings reset to 0-0, but the directional pressure is obvious: chase a playoff ticket in a division that includes Buffalo and Miami, where speed and explosive plays are the standard. The Jets must cash in red zone trips and tilt time of possession to keep the pass rush fresh in the fourth quarter. Expect Saleh to lean on a sturdy front and create short fields—those hidden yards can swing a total and a spread.
How is the current performance of Pittsburgh Steelers
Tomlin’s Steelers just posted a 19-10 road win over the Panthers (all competitions) and finished last season’s NFL slate with a 14-28 road loss at Baltimore. Averaged across those two reported games: 16.5 points scored, 19.0 allowed. The broader NFL form line is tough—0 wins, 5 losses across their last five NFL games—but context helps: this is a fresh year, and Pittsburgh’s identity, especially on defense, tends to travel well. In all competitions, they’re 2 wins and 3 losses in the last five, suggesting upticks around the margins.
The AFC North is a weekly gauntlet with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. No illusions here: if Pittsburgh wants to stay in the mix for a division crown or a wild card, they must stack early wins. That’s Tomlin’s wheelhouse—scripted openers, field position management, and defense-led game control. If the Steelers stay on schedule on early downs and avoid giveaways, the Steelers’ offense can do just enough to back up a winning defensive effort.
Statistics
– Last direct matchup: Pittsburgh won 37-15 at home. That’s a single-game snapshot, but it does illustrate how quickly the Steelers can open a margin when they control the trenches and win turnover differential. – Head-to-head last five (all competitions): Jets 3 wins, Steelers 2 wins. Slight nod to New York in recent meetings, but the last one skewed toward Pittsburgh with a comfortable home result. – Performance last 5 (all competitions): Jets 2 wins, 3 losses; Steelers 2 wins, 3 losses. Form is razor-thin between these two. – Last match results: Jets fell 17-19 at home to the Eagles; Steelers beat the Panthers 19-10 on the road. – Jets recent two-game averages: 24.5 points scored, 19.5 allowed. – Steelers recent two-game averages: 16.5 points scored, 19.0 allowed. – Divisions: Jets are in the AFC East; Steelers in the AFC North. No combined league table talk here—each division is its own fight with four teams each. The path to the postseason: win the division or chase one of the three wild card tickets in the AFC. – Matchday: Week 1, both teams 0-0. With the total at 37.5, one explosive play or a short-field turnover swing could push this above the number.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re opening in a lane the Steelers know well: road favorite, small spread, defensive trust. Our card leans into Pittsburgh’s structure and Tomlin’s Week 1 readiness. First, we’ll lay the short number: Steelers -2.0 for a manageable margin in what profiles like a field-position game. Second, we’ll take the Steelers moneyline (BetMGM Sportsbook) to anchor parlay builds or standalone action. Third, Over 37.5 gets the nod because the number is modest and both sides showed just enough recent scoring efficiency to push this past the mid-30s if either offense hits a rhythm. Week 1 is about execution and identity—Pittsburgh’s is clearer right now, and that’s our edge.
