San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks 01/17/2026
Two heavyweight NFC West rivals square up again in the Divisional Round, with San Francisco traveling to Seattle on Saturday night (Jan. 17, 8:00 p.m. ET). If you like betting with a bit of recent-history context, this one checks the boxes. Seattle just went on the road and handled business 13-3 in their last meeting with San Francisco, and Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks are rolling into January with a five-game heater. The 49ers are 4-1 over their last five, fresh off a gritty 23-19 road win in Philly.
From a betting angle, the contrasts are sharp: Seattle’s defense has squeezed opponents to an average of 15.0 points allowed across its last five, while the 49ers’ offense has clocked 30.6 points per game in that same span. Something’s got to give. The noise factor in Seattle and the schematics from Macdonald’s defense versus Kyle Shanahan’s offensive machine make this a classic “strength-on-strength” playoff spot. Let’s break down the moneyline, spread, and total with a clear set of picks and probabilities, and translate the matchup into actionable value for US bettors.
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Our betting predictions: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Main Tip: (Totals) – Under 46.5 Points
1) Tip 1 (Totals): Under 46.5 points (56% probability; fair price at -125 at DraftKings). Why: Seattle’s defense is peaking at the right time, allowing an average of 15.0 points over its last five, and just held San Francisco to three the last time out. Even with the 49ers averaging 30.6 in their last five, Macdonald’s group has been excellent at capping explosives and forcing long drives. In a playoff environment at a loud stadium, both teams can opt for patience and field-position football. Model edge leans under with a modest cushion. Betting tip: Under 46.5.
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Tip 2: (Moneyline) – Seattle Seahawks to win
2) Tip 2 (Moneyline): Seattle Seahawks to win (58% probability; fair price at BetMGM). Why: Seattle is 5-0 across its last five with an average scoring margin of +11.6, and the home-field advantage here matters. San Francisco is no stranger to big stages, but the Seahawks’ defensive structure and their ability to run the ball to set a manageable script tilt this matchup. At a fair price, the Seahawks have a slight but legitimate edge in a playoff-style game that could hinge on field goals and one or two takeaways.
Tip 3: (Spread) – Seattle -3.5
3) Tip 3 (Spread): Seattle -3.5 (54% probability; fair price around -115 at BetMGM). Why: With Seattle’s crowd and current form, a one-score win is a reasonable expectation. The last head-to-head finished 13-3, and while San Francisco’s offense is generally more dynamic than that performance showed, the Seahawks’ recent consistency on both sides nudges a 4-to-7 point type of result. If the number climbs, be price-sensitive; at -3.5 near -115, the edge is still actionable.
Team Statistics: Form, division picture, and matchup dynamics
Seattle Seahawks (Home, NFC West)
- Current form: 5-0 in their last five, with an average of 26.6 points scored and 15.0 allowed. That’s a double-digit average margin (+11.6) heading into the rematch.
- Last result: 13-3 road win at San Francisco. – Division snapshot: First in the NFC West after a dominant stretch run; they earned home rights for this playoff clash. No need to look outside the division standings—Seattle finished atop the West and carries that form into the postseason.
- Style notes: Under head coach Mike Macdonald, the defense is disciplined and utilizes multiple, disguised coverages, steady pressure packages, and sure tackling. Offensively, Seattle has leaned on a steady ground game with bursts of chunk plays, which helps them control tempo.
- Against the spread trend: 7-3 ATS across the last 10. That matches the eye test—this team has been playing to and beyond market expectations.
- Situational angle: At home in January, with crowd noise that complicates protections and audibles. This is a tangible on-field factor that tends to lower opponent efficiency and can tilt the hidden yards battle.
San Francisco 49ers (Away, NFC West)
- Current form: 4-1 over the last five, averaging 30.6 points scored and 24.2 allowed. The offense remains highly efficient overall, even after that 3-point outing versus Seattle.
- Last result: 23-19 road win at Philadelphia—a tough place to play, and the kind of cold-weather, late-game situation that builds playoff equity.
- Division snapshot: Second in the NFC West, so this is a true divisional test in a playoff setting without any “overall table” noise. The Niners know exactly what they’re up against schematically and atmospherically.
- Style notes: Kyle Shanahan’s offense typically layers motion, misdirection, and a balanced approach that puts stress on rules. When the 49ers are rolling, they sustain drives and create yards after the catch. The key is keeping the run game on schedule against a Seattle front that’s been tackling well and limiting explosives.
- Matchup checkbox: San Francisco must raise its protection and early-down efficiency in this environment to prevent long-yardage passing situations. The last head-to-head showed how thin the margin can get if they’re behind the sticks.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks and tempo: Seattle’s offense has mixed rhythm throws with a sturdy run game, helping them average 26.6 over the last five. Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense averaged 30.6 in that stretch, but crowd noise in Seattle tends to lower snap-to-snap efficiency.
- Health watch: Monitor San Francisco’s offensive line and pass-catcher availability. On Seattle’s side, watch the tackle situation. The trenches will dictate whether either offense sustains drives.
- Coaching edge: Mike Macdonald’s defense just solved the Niners recently; Shanahan’s counterpunch is the chess match to watch.
- Environment: January in Seattle can bring wind or rain, which favors the host’s defense and ground game. That leans under and supports a modest spread play on the home side.
Last direct match
Seattle won 13-3 on the road in the most recent meeting, a low-scoring game marked by strong Seahawks defense and limited 49ers explosives.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Seattle Seahawks: 5 wins, 0 losses; averaging 26.6 points scored and 15.0 allowed.
- San Francisco 49ers: 4 wins, 1 loss; averaging 30.6 points scored and 24.2 allowed.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This matchup sets up like a classic playoff grinder between two teams that know each other inside out. Seattle’s current form, home-field edge, and the recent 13-3 result point us to a two-pronged approach: a moneyline lean to the Seahawks and a totals play to the Under. We give Seattle a 58% win probability, with a tight but real edge to cover a small number like -3.5. The total market looks a touch high given Seattle’s defensive trend and how these teams just played—Under 46.5 (56% probability) is the first ticket we’d punch.
In plain terms: play the Under first, then Seattle on the moneyline, and finally the Seahawks at -3.5 if you get a reasonable price. That combination aligns with the current form, the divisional context, and the coaching matchup—Macdonald’s defense versus Shanahan’s adjustments. In a one-score playoff game script with weather and noise in play, those are the smartest angles on the board.
