Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles 01/04/2026
Two NFC East rivals square off Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET in Philadelphia, with the Eagles looking to polish off a strong regular season under head coach Nick Sirianni and the Commanders trying to close with some pride under Dan Quinn. From a betting standpoint, you’ve got a classic late-season divisional tilt: one team with momentum and a playoff ceiling, the other scrapping to cover and spoil. Philadelphia’s 11-5 mark has been built on steady defense and enough offensive pop at home, while Washington’s 4-12 year has leaned a little more volatile, with road results especially uneven. The last five-game snapshot adds fuel: Eagles 3-2, Commanders 1-4.
If you like handicapping by matchup tendencies, the averages paint a clear baseline. Philly is scoring about 22.6 points per game while allowing just 18.8, a tidy +3.8 per game differential. Washington averages 20.8 points per game and allows 27.1, a -6.4 differential. Over/Under markets around the high 30s should be in play, given the recent Commanders game scripts and the Eagles’ stronger efficiency at home. Moneyline backers will note the short price on the favorite; spread players will see an opportunity to grab points in a divisional game where familiarity often closes the gap.
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Our betting predictions: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Main Tip: Totals – Over 38.5 Points
1) Over 38.5 points (best price -125 at BetMGM Sportsbook). Why it makes sense: The Eagles’ offense has been more comfortable at Lincoln Financial Field, averaging roughly 24.9 points at home, while Washington’s defense has allowed around 26.4 points per game on the road. That combination pushes this into the low- to mid-40s range on many projections, and late-season divisional games often feature short fields off aggressive play-calling and special-teams wrinkles. Our projection shows about a 58% chance that this clears 38.5, which would translate to a fair price near -138. With a market tag at -125 with BetMGM, there’s a small but real edge to the Over.
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Tip 2: Washington Commanders +4.5
2) Washington Commanders +4.5 (best price at bet365). Why it makes sense: Division dogs travel well in late-season spots, and Washington has found ways to keep things tighter than expected in several rivalry games. The Eagles’ defense is legit, but Washington’s offense averages 23.6 points at home and 17.9 on the road—still enough to threaten a backdoor cover against a Philly team that sometimes eases off when ahead. We rate Washington to cover +4.5 roughly 56–57% of the time (fair price around -130 to -133). At best odds with bet365, it’s playable. Expect Quinn to lean on tempo pockets and designed QB movement to manufacture first downs.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Philadelphia Eagles
3) Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles (best price at bet365). Why it makes sense: Philly’s overall profile is stronger on both sides of the ball, and they’ve been a tougher out at home. Our win probability lands around 66–68%, suggesting a fair moneyline near -203 to -213. At best odds, there’s not a huge bargain, but it’s aligned with expectations and pairs nicely with single-game parlays if you’re building around the Eagles’ success. Washington’s upset probability sits about 32–34%, which would imply a fair number closer to +195 to +210, so +165 isn’t quite enough for us to bite on the dog straight up.
Team Statistics: Eagles steady at home, Commanders scrapping for covers
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East)
- Overall form: 11-5 (68.8% win rate), last five 3-2. Most recent result: 13-12 road win in Buffalo—gritty and defense-forward.
- Scoring profile: 22.6 points per game; 18.8 points allowed per game; average margin +3.8.
- Home splits: 5-2 at home (71.4% win rate). Averaging 24.9 points scored and 17.1 allowed at home—cleaner execution and better finishing drives in front of the Philly crowd.
- Road splits: 6-3; averaging 20.9 scored and 20.1 allowed—still positive, but tighter margins.
- Style notes: Under Nick Sirianni, Philly remains multiple on offense and balanced in neutral situations. They can lean on the short game and shot plays to A.J. Brown when safeties cheat up. Defensively, they’re holding opponents under 20 per game on average, with pass rush creating situational pressure.
- Division snapshot: In the NFC East, the Eagles sit near the top tier with that 11-5 mark, jockeying for seeding against their division rivals. No talk of an overall league table—this is a division race that still matters.
Washington Commanders (NFC East)
- Overall form: 4-12 (25.0% win rate), last five 1-4. Most recent result: 23-30 home loss vs Dallas.
- Scoring profile: 20.8 points per game; 27.1 allowed per game; average margin -6.4.
- Home splits: 2-6 (25.0% win rate). Averaging 23.6 scored and 27.9 allowed at home—offense wakes up, but the defense has surrendered sustained drives.
- Road splits: 2-6; averaging 17.9 scored and 26.4 allowed—tougher sledding away from D.C., especially in second halves.
- Style notes: Under Dan Quinn, the offense has shown flashes when they use QB mobility and quick-game concepts to get Terry McLaurin and the backs in space. Defensively, it’s a group that needs takeaways to mask chunk plays allowed.
- Division snapshot: In the NFC East pecking order, Washington sits at the bottom this year but remains dangerous in a rivalry spot where variance and special teams can flip scripts quickly.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Recent notes suggest the Eagles have managed stretches without key linemen—Lane Johnson has battled lower-body issues, and Jalen Carter’s missed time has forced more rotational snaps inside. Sirianni has leaned on structure and depth, with veterans like Brandon Graham still factoring into pressure packages. On offense, the presence of a dynamic back has helped the Eagles keep balance and protect their quarterback in long-yardage spots. Washington’s late-season plan featured Marcus Mariota handling snaps, with designed runs and play-action keeping defenses honest. The Commanders’ protection has been shuffled, and that’s an area to watch against Philly’s front. In a rivalry game, hidden yards matter: field position, penalties, and one timely interception can swing a cover. Keep an eye on inactives 90 minutes pre-kick; trench health will likely dictate whether Washington’s offense can sustain four- to six-minute drives.
Last direct match
The last head-to-head ended 29-18, an away win for the Eagles—another data point that Philly can carry its efficiency into this matchup.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Philadelphia Eagles: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Washington Commanders: 1 win, 4 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card starts with Over 38.5. The Eagles’ home scoring average (about 24.9) paired with Washington’s road allowance (about 26.4) points toward a game that pushes past the high-30s, and our 58% projection clears the break-even threshold for that price. Next, we’ll take Washington +4.5. Divisional dogs can hang around, and the Commanders’ offense has enough mobility and intermediate weapons to manufacture a late cover even if Philly leads most of the way. Finally, the moneyline call is Eagles. We peg Philly around 66–68% to win outright—consistent with the price—and their defensive averages, plus Nick Sirianni’s late-game management, give them the finishing edge at home. Put together: Over for pace and efficiency, Commanders with the points for game-state value, and Eagles to take care of business on the scoreboard. That’s the angle for a rivalry game where both coaching staffs will empty the clip in Week 18.
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