Boston Bruins @ Winnipeg Jets 12/11/2025
Two teams headed in different directions meet Thursday night at Bell MTS Place, and from a betting angle, there’s a clear storyline. Boston’s trending up, winning four of its last five and tightening up its netfront play, while Winnipeg’s trying to steady things as they work through a tough stretch without Connor Hellebuyck. The Bruins have been the better road form lately, even if their season-long away mark is under .500, and they might get a boost if David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are cleared to go. Meanwhile, Eric Comrie’s been grinding as the Jets’ starter, and Scott Arniel will be pushing all the buttons behind the bench to get his group back to their heavy, north-south game in front of a loud home crowd.
If you’re building a card around this one, keep an eye on moneyline movement closer to puck drop—Pastrnak and McAvoy’s status could nudge the price. For totals, the combination of Boston’s chance creation and Winnipeg’s recent defensive volatility sets up a compelling Over angle.
Check the latest NHL betting odds now and get the insight you need before the lines move—dive in, compare the numbers, and make your play with confidence.
Our betting predictions: Boston Bruins @ Winnipeg Jets
Best Bet: Totals (Over/Under) – Over 6.0
1) Totals (Over/Under): Over 6.0 (projected edge). My model makes the Over about 54% implied probability, which translates to fair odds of -115 with Caesars Sportsbook. The per-game scoring profiles line up: Boston sits around 3.4 goals for per game with 3.4 against, Winnipeg is near 3.2 for and 2.8 against. Layer in Boston’s top-line finishing if Pastrnak goes and Winnipeg’s increased penalty rate (roughly four minors per game), and you’re giving extra oxygen to special-teams chances. Even with Jeremy Swayman playing sharply, the Jets tend to create inside speed at home. Tip: Take Over 6.0 at any price better than -115 at Caesars.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Bruins to Win
2) Moneyline: Bruins to win. I’ve got Boston around a 57% win probability, a fair line at bet365. That reflects superior recent form, a goaltending edge (Swayman’s last-10 run has been excellent), and the potential returns of Pastrnak/McAvoy. Winnipeg’s still dangerous at home and plays hard for Arniel, but Boston’s depth and puck management tilt the ice here. Tip: Bruins ML down to about -135.
Tip 3: Spread (Puck Line) – Bruins -1.5
3) Spread (Puck Line): Bruins -1.5. This is the higher-variance play, but there’s value if you can grab plus money. I project roughly a 37% hit rate, implying fair odds at bet365. If Boston gets the first one, their forecheck and neutral-zone layers can squeeze Winnipeg and open up the empty-net path late. Tip: Bruins -1.5 at anything better than +160 at bet365.
Team statistics and where they stand
Winnipeg Jets (Western Conference, Central Division): The Jets are hovering around the middle of the Central right now. They’ve taken points more consistently at home than on the road this season and, in aggregate, they’re producing just over 3.2 goals per game while allowing just under 2.8 per game. That defensive number skewed better earlier; since Hellebuyck’s injury, the goals-against rate has trended north. Discipline’s been a subplot—about four minors per game isn’t backbreaking, but it puts stress on the kill over time. Save rate has dipped with the goalie carousel; Comrie has battled at just under a .900 save percentage in his recent starts. Faceoff results have generally been around league average—good enough to get into structure but not a massive possession edge. Form-wise, Winnipeg is 1-4 over its last five, coming off a tight home loss to Dallas.
Boston Bruins (Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division): Boston sits in the thick of the Atlantic pack. They’ve been better at home overall, but their road play is improving—4-1 over the last five, with a strong win in St. Louis their most recent result. Offensively, Boston is tracking near 3.4 goals per game, allowing about 3.4 per game. That’s a touch higher against than we’re used to seeing from them, but the recent goaltending uptick from Swayman has helped stabilize things. Special teams can swing matchups for this group; even when the power play isn’t humming, their entries and chance quality usually look sustainable. The penalty kill is well-drilled, and if McAvoy returns, their exits and in-zone retrievals jump a tier. In the faceoff circle, Boston tends to be steady enough to get set plays off and protect leads late. Overall form signals a club getting healthier and sharper.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel should get full buy-in on home ice, but the crease remains the question. With Hellebuyck still rehabbing, Eric Comrie’s recent form sits around a .898 save percentage and a goals-against just over three per game. Thomas Milic has seen limited action in reserve.
- Boston’s Jeremy Swayman has been excellent in his last 10 appearances, roughly a .926 save percentage with a goals-against in the mid-twos. That’s a sizable edge.
- Boston could welcome David Pastrnak (game-time decision) and Charlie McAvoy back soon; both practiced and are close. Even limited minutes from either one lifts Boston’s ceiling in transition and on special teams.
- Winnipeg’s penalty rate near four per game could feed Boston’s man-advantage looks. – Travel note: Boston is on a multi-game road swing; this is the middle stop. Fatigue management and bench matchups will be key.
Last direct match: Winnipeg Jets vs Boston Bruins
Recent head-to-heads leaned Winnipeg, and the most recent meeting was a comfortable road win for the Jets by a multi-goal margin.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Winnipeg: 1 win, 4 losses
- Boston: 4 wins, 1 loss.
How the Moneyline, Totals, and Spread line up
Moneyline: I estimate Boston at 57% and Winnipeg at 43%. News on Pastrnak/McAvoy could push Boston slightly shorter. – Totals: Projected Over 6.0 at 54% (fair -115) with Boston’s finishers and Winnipeg’s recent penalty volume factoring in. – Spread (Puck Line -1.5): Bruins cover about 37% of the time in this spot (fair +165), but you’ll want plus money to justify the variance.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We like three angles, and they tell a consistent story. First, the Over 6.0 gets the nod because both sides carry enough finishing talent to clear a relatively standard total, and Winnipeg’s current goaltending situation plus penalty volume can create extra scoring windows. Second, the Bruins’ moneyline is our steady play; Boston’s recent trajectory, Swayman’s form, and the potential return of two stars all point toward a road result even in a tough building. Third, the Bruins -1.5 puck line is our price-sensitive flier—less frequent but with upside if Boston scores first and controls pace, which brings the empty-net pathway into play.
In practical terms: Over 6.0 at anything better than -115, Bruins ML, and Bruins -1.5 only if you can snag plus money near +160 or better. Winnipeg will compete under Scott Arniel—no question—but Boston has the cleaner form, the sharper goaltending, and potentially the higher gear if Pastrnak and McAvoy are in. That’s why our card lines up exactly this way.
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