Chicago Blackhawks @ Pittsburgh Penguins 01/29/2026
Thursday night in Pittsburgh, the puck drops at PPG Paints Arena with two Original Six-adjacent brands headed in different directions: the Chicago Blackhawks head to the Steel City to meet the Pittsburgh Penguins. From a betting angle, you’ve got a home side that’s tightened up defensively and surged lately, and a road team still searching for consistency. Pittsburgh brings 63 points into the night with a stronger recent run and a positive goal differential.
Chicago sits on 51 points, still scrappy, but leaky defensively on the road. Moneyline markets are shading the league’s elder statesmen, while totals players will eye whether Chicago’s push-and-chase pace can coax this one past the number. It’s not a playoff matchup, but it’s the kind of late-January pivot point that can tilt momentum. Expect a businesslike, veteran approach from Mike Sullivan’s group against a Hawks squad leaning on youthful skill to punch above its weight.
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Betting prediction for match Chicago Blackhawks @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Here’s how I see it: Pittsburgh’s game has rounded into form over the last couple of weeks. They’re winning along the walls, controlling pace, and getting reliable netminding. Chicago’s flashes are real—especially when the top line finds rhythm—but the Hawks’ road profile has been volatile. Market-wise, the Penguins sit as favorites on the moneyline with an implied win probability right around 63–65%. Chicago as underdogs implies roughly 38–39%. My model lands near 63% Penguins, 37% Blackhawks, which squares with that price range. With Pittsburgh’s depth and structure, plus a recent run that’s more sustainable than streaky, the home side is the rightful favorite.
Our betting predictions: Chicago Blackhawks @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Best Bet: Penguins puckline -1.5
1) Penguins puckline -1.5 at +140 with BetMGM. Why I like it: When Pittsburgh is rolling, they turn territorial edge into multi-goal separation late—especially with a veteran leadership group that closes games well. Chicago can hang, but their defensive-zone coverage tends to loosen in the third, and Pittsburgh’s forecheck often cashes in on tired legs. The plus-money sticker is the most interesting angle in this matchup, and it aligns with the Penguins’ ability to stretch leads when they get the first goal. Betting tip: Penguins -1.5 at +140.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Penguins
2) Moneyline: Penguins at best odds with DraftKings. Why I like it: Pittsburgh’s combination of goaltending reliability and five-on-five shot suppression creates a solid floor at home. The implied probability fits the form guide and the head-to-head edge. If you’re looking for a safer entry point than the puckline, this is it. Betting tip: Penguins to win at attractive odds with DraftKings.
Tip 3: Total – Over 6.0 Goals
3) Total: Over 6.0 goals at -118 with DraftKings. Why I like it: The Penguins’ offense has trended up, and Chicago typically plays looser on the road, inviting rush chances both ways. The over clears more often when Pittsburgh pushes tempo, and their power play gets a couple of looks. If the game state turns special-teams heavy, we could see quality chances stack. Betting tip: Over 6.0 at -118.
Team Statistics: Form, Structure, and Where They Sit
- Pittsburgh Penguins (Eastern Conference, Metropolitan Division)
- Recent form: 4 wins in the last 5, including a road grind where they managed the game state and closed it down late.
- Scoring profile: About 3.3 goals per game this season, allowing just under 3.0 per game. That positive differential typically carries in home spots when they dictate matchups.
- Home/road split: At home, they’ve been up and down on the ledger, but their recent skating legs and improved puck management have tightened PPG Paints Arena into a tougher trip again.
- Special teams: The power play has found better entries and puck movement as of late, with cleaner zone time for the top unit; the penalty kill has operated with sharper reads and better sticks in lanes during this recent uptick.
- Goaltending/defense: Save rates have stabilized with improved defensive layers—fewer slot-wide looks against, more controlled rebounds, and better net-front boxing out.
- Faceoffs: With elite pivots anchoring the spine, Pittsburgh often enjoys the possession edge in key zones, which matters on special teams and late-game draws.
- Divisional context: Within the Metropolitan, this is a veteran group pushing upward in a crowded mid-pack, banking points to stay in the mix.
- Chicago Blackhawks (Western Conference, Central Division)
- Recent form: 2 wins in the last 5, with moments of push but not quite enough game control for full sixty-minute performances.
- Scoring profile: Roughly 2.7 goals per game on the season, allowing a tick over 3.1 per game. That negative split has been the story in tight third periods on the road.
- Away track: Road results show effort and spurts of skill, but defensive-zone clears and line changes at the long change have cost them.
- Special teams: The power play has flashes when the entries are clean and the bumper spot gets touches; the penalty kill has improved in spurts but can still be stressed by east-west puck movement.
- Goaltending/defense: When they keep outside shots to the perimeter, their goalies give them a chance. Trouble comes when slot chances stack or screens linger.
- Faceoffs: Neutral-zone draws have been a swing point; when they chase possession early in shifts, it snowballs into extended time against.
- Divisional context: In the Central, the Hawks remain in the lower tier, fighting to claw closer to the teams in the wild-card conversation.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Pittsburgh’s leadership core continues to drive the standard. Sidney Crosby stays on the puck and on the board, and his line’s zone time fuels the power play. Depth scoring has picked up, giving Mike Sullivan more flexibility with matchups at home. On the Chicago side, Connor Bedard is the headline—his vision and release can tilt any shift—but since returning from injury and illness hiccups, the rhythm has been stop-start. The recent schedule has also leaned tougher for the Hawks, including travel spots that strain the defensive structure late. Pittsburgh’s recent surge (strong run over the last couple of weeks) reflects improved five-on-five pace and better special-teams sequencing. If the whistle count climbs, Pittsburgh’s experience usually pays off.
Last direct match
Pittsburgh took the last head-to-head by multiple goals, winning 7–3 on the road, a result that showcased their ability to stretch a lead when they control the neutral zone.
Performance last 5 matches
- Penguins: 4 wins, 1 loss; last outing was a 3–2 road win over Vancouver.
- Blackhawks: 2 wins, 3 losses; last outing was a 3–4 road loss in Minnesota.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Why Penguins -1.5 at +140: This is the value swing. Pittsburgh’s current form, forecheck pressure, and experience closing out third periods present a clear path to a multi-goal result. If they strike first, the in-game shape favors a cover on the puckline. Why Penguins ML: The moneyline reflects the on-ice edge—possession control, goaltending stability, and a home crowd that can push momentum. If you want the more conservative stance, this is the practical play. Why Over 6.0 at -118: Pittsburgh’s offense is trending up, and Chicago’s road style invites chances both ways. Add a few power-play looks for each side, and the over becomes live, especially if we get an early goal to open the ice.
Bottom line: The model and the eye test align—Pittsburgh is the side, and the game script projects toward a Penguins win with a credible chance to clear the spread. If you prefer a safer lane, the moneyline is justified by form. For totals bettors, the over is in range provided we see a reasonable whistle count and at least one special-teams conversion. Mike Sullivan’s group should control the tempo and the matchups—exactly what you want at home in late January.
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