Chicago Blackhawks @ Toronto Maple Leafs 12/16/2025
Scotiabank Arena under the lights, Tuesday night, and we’ve got an Original Six tilt that always brings juice to the building. Chicago rolls in without their generational centerpiece, while Toronto, under Craig Berube, is trying to steady the ship after a bumpy patch. If you’re looking at this with a bettor’s lens, the recent form matters: the Leafs are 2-3 in their last five with a wild, high-event style lately, and Chicago’s 1-4 over its last five with offense drying up when the kids aren’t creating. Home ice matters in this spot, and Berube’s group should lean on a deeper forward group, a heavier forecheck, and the crowd behind them.
Trends also point to pace and finishing talent favoring Toronto. The Leafs’ season scoring rate sits a tick higher than Chicago’s, and the Hawks’ recent slump has coincided with key injuries up front. The goaltending question for Toronto is worth monitoring, but structurally, Berube has them more connected between the blue lines and less leaky off the rush. Translate that to betting terms: it’s a spot where the moneyline favorite has real teeth, the puck line has live underdog-turned-favorite value if you can stomach variance, and the total hinges on whether Chicago can manufacture secondary offense.
Who’s skating away with the win tonight? Check the latest NHL betting odds and see where the value is!
Our betting predictions: Chicago Blackhawks @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Main Tip: Total Pick – Under 6.0
1) Total Under 6.0 Pick: Under 6.0 (estimated 58% probability; fair price -135 at Caesars). Why: Without Connor Bedard, Chicago’s attack loses its primary chance creator and finisher, and that typically trims their game totals. Toronto’s recent inconsistency and injuries up front also point toward a tighter script, especially if Woll is back or at least available to stabilize the crease. Chicago’s season scoring rate checks in around 3.29 goals per game for and 2.65 against, while Toronto is at about 3.61 for and 3.83 against. With both sides likely to respect the puck a bit more after weekend losses, the situational lean is to a modest output. My number assigns the Under a 58% hit rate, which correlates to -135 on Caesars.
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Tip 2: Moneyline — Toronto Maple Leafs
For our second Pick: Maple Leafs to win (estimated 62% probability; fair price at bet365). Why: The Leafs’ home edge, the “Holy Mackinaw” energy, and the absence of Bedard tilt this matchup toward Toronto. The Blackhawks’ recent run has been heavy sledding (one win in their last five), and the offense has leaned heavily on Bedard all season. Toronto’s last five are a less-than-ideal 2-3, but the underlying pressure game at home often carries them late. My projection sets Toronto at about 62% to take it in regulation or beyond, which translates to a fair moneyline near -160 at bet365.
Tip 3: Puck Line — Chicago Blackhawks +1.5
For our final betting Pick: Blackhawks +1.5 (estimated 60% probability; fair price -150 at bet365). Why: If you like the Under and still think Toronto squeaks out the moneyline, the correlated angle is Chicago to keep it within one on the puck line. The Blackhawks’ goals-against rate on the season sits in a moderate range, and even with their offense hampered, they’ve kept a handful of road games within a tighter margin. I price +1.5 at 60%, or roughly -150, acknowledging Toronto’s path is narrower if this becomes a low-event game. Leafs to win, Hawks to cover, total to stay under is a reasonable three-leg narrative.
Team Statistics
Toronto Maple Leafs — Form Check and What the Numbers Say
- Record/context: 8 wins, 10 losses, 18 points; home mark 7 wins, 6 losses. Recent five: 2-3, with a home stumble against Edmonton last out.
- Scoring profile: Approximately 3.61 goals per game for, 3.83 against. That “for” rate places them in the middle tier offensively, but the “against” rate has been a touch too generous, a symptom of uneven defensive-zone coverage and a rotating goalie picture.
- Special teams: The power play has shown flashes but has been streaky of late, while the penalty kill has had trouble with quick seam passes. In a game with fewer marquee finishers on the ice, Toronto’s discipline will be key to avoiding ceding easy man-advantage looks.
- Goaltending/shot metrics: With Joseph Woll nearing a return, the Leafs could stabilize their save percentage. Shot volume trends toward average-to-good at home; when they’re on the front foot, they can tilt the ice with cycle pressure.
- Puck possession and draws: Without Auston Matthews, faceoff dominance dips, and that matters for set plays and late-game closes. The Leafs still have enough depth at center to hold their own, but they’re not the same at the dot without No. 34.
- Standings lens — Division/Conference: The NHL is split into Eastern and Western Conferences. In the East, the Atlantic Division features eight teams. Toronto resides in the Atlantic and, based on current form and points, sits in the lower half of that division’s race right now, chasing a climb back into the top-four mix.
Chicago Blackhawks — Form Check and What the Numbers Say
- Record/context: 8 wins, 9 losses, 20 points; away mark 5 wins, 5 losses. Recent five: 1-4, most recently shut out by Detroit at home.
- Scoring profile: Roughly 3.29 goals per game for, 2.65 against. The defensive number has been better than expected, but subtracting Bedard from the attack caps their ceiling in transition and on the power play.
- Special teams: With Bedard sidelined, the power play loses its primary shooter/distributor hub. The penalty kill has competed, but extended DZ time can tax their structure late in games.
- Goaltending/shot metrics: The team’s save trend has been respectable; the concern lies more with sustaining offensive pressure shifts. Shot generation without their top talent likely drops to more perimeter volume — fine for time-of-possession, but not always for conversion.
- Puck possession and draws: Expect a workmanlike approach on faceoffs and board battles; they can grind, but winning the right matchups against Toronto’s top-six is the challenge.
- Standings lens — Division/Conference: In the West, the Central Division includes eight teams. Chicago currently profiles as mid-pack in the Central race, within striking distance of the wildcard picture if they can stem the recent slide.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Connor Bedard (shoulder) is a major absence for Chicago — he’s been involved in roughly half of their scoring, and his removal changes the entire look of the rush and power play. Captain Nick Foligno (hand) remains out for multiple weeks, further thinning forward depth. Toronto’s injury sheet has included Auston Matthews (lower body) and others, but Joseph Woll is trending toward availability, which could tighten up the back end. Head coach Craig Berube has emphasized better finishing and game management late; this is a spot where the home crowd and “Holy Mackinaw Night” could provide an emotional boost. Travel favors Toronto here with Chicago on a Canadian road swing.
Last direct match
Chicago edged Toronto by one in mid-November, grabbing a late tiebreaker to take the head-to-head.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Toronto: 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Chicago: 1 win, 4 losses.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re lining up three angles that tell one story. First, the Under 6.0 carries value because both lineups have key finishers out or limited, and Chicago’s attack drops a level without Bedard. Second, Toronto on the moneyline is a play on the home ice, the situational edge of “Holy Mackinaw Night,” and the likelihood that Berube’s group capitalizes against a short-handed opponent — I’m projecting around 62% (about -160). Third, if you want cushion, take Chicago +1.5 on the puck line; it pairs nicely with the Under, anticipating a tight check, one-goal kind of game. The clear path: Leafs win, Hawks keep it close, total stays modest. That’s how we arrive at Under 6.0, Leafs ML, and Hawks +1.5 as the recommended trio.
