Edmonton Oilers @ Pittsburgh Penguins 12/16/2025
Two proud franchises, a Tuesday night stage at PPG Paints Arena, and a crease storyline that could headline any hockey show: Edmonton rolling in with Tristan Jarry back to his old barn, and Pittsburgh still sorting out the net after the blockbuster goalie swap. Puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET on December 16, 2025, and if you’re betting this one, the recent form trends are loud. Pittsburgh’s skid has stretched to five straight losses, including a late meltdown in their last outing, while Edmonton’s been the steadier side, going 3-2 across their last five despite a rough night up in Montreal.
Markets to watch: Moneyline, Totals, and Spread. Edmonton’s offense remains a problem to solve with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl driving the pace, while Pittsburgh, under head coach Mike Sullivan, has been strong at five-on-five in spurts, but inconsistent finishing and unsettled goaltending have made every third period feel like a coin flip. Add the emotional wrinkle of Jarry’s return and the possibility that the Penguins may still be without Evgeni Malkin, and this matchup sets up with some real volatility. Let’s get into it.
Thinking long-term on the ice? Explore NHL futures betting odds and lock in your plays early!
Our betting predictions: Edmonton Oilers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Main Tip: Total Over 6.5
1) Total Over 6.5 at -105 with FanDuel Sportsbook (approx. 55% edge, implied 51.2%): This is the most intriguing angle. Edmonton games are averaging roughly 6.6 combined goals per night when you blend their scoring rate with how often they’ve been giving it up. Pittsburgh’s profile sits closer to 6.0 per game, but recent late-game swings plus the Pens’ up-and-down netminding raise the variance. If Jarry is sharp early for Edmonton, the Oilers can still push this over with a power-play heater and rush chances; if he’s merely solid, Pittsburgh’s top six can still match. My model gives the Over at 6.5 a slight probability edge versus the line, so it’s our lead play.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? Learn how to activate and use the FanDuel deposit bonus step by step!
Tip 2: Moneyline – Edmonton Oilers
2) Edmonton Oilers moneyline at -120 with BetMGM. (approx. 54% win chance, implied 54.5%): The Oilers have won three of five and generally carry more consistent chance creation, even with that clunker against Montreal. The Penguins’ goal prevention has been trending the wrong way late in games, and without Malkin, secondary scoring is trickier to come by. Edmonton’s top unit tilts ice and draws penalties; if they cash a PP or two, they’re on the front foot. Emotional night for Jarry in his return? Sure. But that often narrows focus rather than rattles it.
Tip 3: Spread – Penguins +1.5
3) Penguins +1.5 at -160 with BetMGM Sportsbook (approx. 62% cover probability, implied 61.5%): If you want a safer spread angle, the Pens typically defend their home sheet with structure under Sullivan and can grind a one-goal game even if they’re chasing. Their per-game goals against isn’t out of control, and five-on-five, they can still clip you off the cycle. The +1.5 brings Pittsburgh’s compete level into play, especially if special teams don’t sink them.
Team Statistics: Snapshot of current form and where they sit
- Pittsburgh Penguins (Home): Record 9-9, 22 points, 4-3 at PPG Paints Arena. Offensively, they’re producing about 3.22 goals per game while allowing around 2.78. That’s a positive goal differential per night, but the trend line has shifted lately with late breakdowns. The Penguins are Eastern Conference, Metropolitan Division—think of the standings as four distinct “leagues”: Atlantic and Metropolitan in the East, Central and Pacific in the West. Pittsburgh’s firmly in the Metro mix but currently outside the top-three cut line. Faceoffs remain a strength with this veteran group, and they typically win their share of puck battles to start with possession. Special teams have been streaky; the penalty kill has stretches of discipline and structure, but the late-game clearances and crease coverage have wobbled. With Mike Sullivan behind the bench, system details rarely abandon them for long—execution has to catch up to the plan.
- Edmonton Oilers (Road): Record 8-11, 20 points, 3-8 away. Edmonton is scoring about 3.05 goals per game and giving up roughly 3.53, so their average game features a higher total. That leans toward more eventful, higher-scoring profiles, especially when they get on the rush. They sit in the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, also outside the top-three but right in that early-season jockeying lane where one solid two-week stretch can change your vantage point. Edmonton’s power play is the lever that flips games—they draw penalties with speed, then let McDavid and Draisaitl go to work on entries and seams. The addition of Tristan Jarry is notable because even average-plus goaltending stabilizes their overall baseline. If they get league-average saves with their shot quality, their per-game scoring margin normalizes upward.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
The December goalie blockbuster matters. Edmonton flipped Stuart Skinner and Brett Kulak (plus a future pick) to Pittsburgh, bringing back Tristan Jarry and Sam Poulin. Jarry, who’s been closer to a .910 save guy, gives the Oilers a steadier presence in the blue paint than they’d had early. Pittsburgh’s crease has been in transition—Artem Silovs has had a tough run, and Skinner’s availability has been tied up by paperwork. If he’s not cleared, the Pens likely ride Silovs again. For Edmonton, McDavid’s playmaking plus Zach Hyman’s finishing heater make the top line dangerous nightly. For Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby continues to drive offense, but the Malkin injury dings scoring depth and power-play punch. Add the emotional lift and nerves for Jarry facing his old team in this building, and it’s a recipe for swings—great theater, and a nudge toward the Over.
Last direct match
Most recent head-to-head tilted toward Pittsburgh at home, a 5–3 result, while the broader five-game set favors Edmonton four wins to one. Expect tactical tweaks from both benches off that tape.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Penguins: 0–5, including an overtime stumble after leading late.
- Oilers: 3–2, though they’re coming off a tough night in Montreal.
How the conferences and divisions frame this matchup
- Eastern Conference, Metropolitan: Pittsburgh sits in the Metro bracket, outside the top-three but within touch if form stabilizes.
- Western Conference, Pacific: Edmonton is in the Pacific hunt, also outside the top-three right now, with room to climb if the new-look goaltending holds.
Can you bet without real-money wagering? Learn how legal sweepstakes sportsbooks work in the U.S.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into the state of each crease, recent momentum, and the way these two teams generate chances. The Over 6.5 at -105 is our favorite because Edmonton’s average game total trends higher, Pittsburgh’s late-game volatility invites swings, and special teams on both sides can tilt the scoreline fast. On the moneyline, Oilers get the nod with a modeled 54% edge—McDavid/Draisaitl plus Jarry’s steadiness is a combination that travels. But we’re also respecting Pittsburgh’s home structure under Mike Sullivan by recommending Penguins +1.5 at -160 as a spread safety valve for cards where you want a lower-volatility add.
Bottom line: ride the Over first, back the Oilers on the moneyline for the win probability value, and use the Penguins +1.5 to balance exposure if you’re building a hockey portfolio for Tuesday. Puck on your tape, keep your units disciplined, and enjoy what should be a high-tempo, goalie-theater night in Pittsburgh.
