Minnesota Wild @ Toronto Maple Leafs 01/19/2026
Two teams skating in different directions collide Monday night at Scotiabank Arena as the Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Minnesota Wild. From a betting lens, there’s plenty to unpack. Toronto’s been wobbling lately, but they’re still a tough out at home under coach Craig Berube, and their attack tends to pop in this building. Minnesota, meanwhile, is grinding through a three-game road swing with major pieces out of the lineup, but they’ve been feisty away from St. Paul all year. With both clubs involved in a string of high-stakes nights, bettors should consider how injuries, travel fatigue, and goaltending form intersect.
Toronto has dropped five of its last six, yet it hasn’t been for lack of chances; the Leafs have been in track meets, and their home scoring rate suggests they can turn this into another up-tempo night. Minnesota’s recent results have tilted the other direction, but their away profile and defensive structure have kept them competitive. This one has the fingerprints of a tight, late-game scenario with special teams looming large—and that opens angles on the moneyline, spread, and totals.
Explore current NHL betting odds for today’s games, with real-time updates, opening lines, and odds movement as puck drop approaches.
Our betting predictions: Minnesota Wild @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Main Tip: Totals – Over 6.5
1) Totals: Over 6.5 at around -105 with FanDuel (estimated 56% hit rate). Both teams have trended toward high-event hockey recently, and the matchup dynamics suggest a high-scoring affair. Toronto’s home scoring pace sits north of three and a half per game while allowing close to three against at home. Minnesota’s road profile is similar—more than three scored per game away, mid-twos allowed. With Joseph Woll likely in the net and the Wild alternating between Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt, there’s room for offense to show up on both sides, especially with depleted forward groups forcing different combinations and more odd-man looks.
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Tip 2: Spread – Minnesota Wild +1.5
2) Spread: Minnesota Wild +1.5 at around -145 at FanDuel (estimated 61%). Even with Minnesota missing top-six forwards, their road consistency and structure have kept a lot of contests within one. Toronto’s recent run features plenty of one-goal finishes, and the Wild’s road totals profile supports a competitive pace. If this tightens up late, a one-goal margin either way covers this number.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Toronto Maple Leafs
3) Moneyline: Toronto Maple Leafs at best odds with bet365 (estimated 57% win probability). The combination of home ice, a stronger home scoring rate, and Woll’s steadiness at a .912 save percentage nudges the edge to the Leafs despite William Nylander’s absence. Minnesota’s injuries to Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek sap some finishing punch and power-play balance, which matters in a game that likely hinges on a couple of situational moments.
Team Statistics: Form, scoring pace, and where each side stands
- Toronto Maple Leafs (Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division): Toronto sits in the Atlantic race looking to stabilize. At home, they’ve banked 16 wins from 26 games, an indication that Scotiabank Arena still brings a real push. Season-long, Toronto’s averaging about 3.38 goals per game while allowing roughly 3.29. At home, that bumps to about 3.69 scored and 2.96 allowed per game—numbers that paint the Maple Leafs as a better two-way team on their own ice. Special teams continue to be a lever for them; the power play has been chipping in steadily this month, and their top unit still drives quality looks even with Nylander sidelined. On the kill, Toronto’s structure has improved, but lapses have fed some of those high-scoring swings. The faceoff game remains a quiet asset—between Auston Matthews and John Tavares, Toronto tends to tilt possession off the dots. In goal, Joseph Woll’s .912 save percentage and a manageable 2.73 GAA hold the baseline needed for a rebound spot. The key variable is finishing depth without Nylander; Calle Jarnkrok draws in, but it’s the secondary group that must keep the cycle alive.
- Minnesota Wild (Western Conference, Central Division): Minnesota is tracking near the upper band of the Central and owns a strong road résumé, winning 14 of 24 away games. Overall, the Wild averages about 3.16 goals per game and concedes roughly 2.86. On the road, they’re at about 3.21 scored and 2.63 allowed per game, a strong away defensive rate that usually travels. But injuries to Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek hit the top six and the power play in the soft spots. Without those pieces, the man-advantage spacing changes, and the bumper/slot threat isn’t as consistent. The penalty kill remains fundamentally disciplined, though the road grind can stress routes and clears. In net, Gustavsson/Wallstedt is the alternating plan; Wallstedt’s recent run has been bumpy, while Gustavsson’s steadier hand could get the nod in a building where first saves and rebound control matter. Minnesota’s faceoff play has improved year-over-year, and that helps them slow games down—critical on the back end of travel.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Auston Matthews is in one of those heater stretches—eight goals and three assists in his last eight January games—driving shot quality and second-chance pressure. For Minnesota, Kirill Kaprizov remains the fulcrum; his January pace (five points in five) underscores how much he’s carrying line offense, particularly with Boldy and Eriksson Ek out. Joseph Woll’s .912 save percentage stabilizes Toronto, and the Leafs’ power play still generates high-danger looks even without William Nylander, who’s out with a lower-body issue per Craig Berube. The Wild’s travel—third stop on a road swing—introduces fatigue, especially for their thinned top six. Expect both coaches to leverage special teams; Toronto’s PP vs. a disciplined Minnesota PK may be the swing.
Last direct match
Minnesota took the most recent head-to-head on the road, while the last five meetings tilt to Toronto overall, three wins to two.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 3 wins, 2 losses; most recently an OT road victory.
- Minnesota Wild: 2 wins, 3 losses; most recently an OT road victory.
How the matchup plays: Styles, pace, and what it means for your bets
The chess match here is pace vs. structure. Toronto at home tends to open the ice—clean exits, aggressive entries, and middle-lane drives that pull defenders apart. Minnesota counters with a classic Wild blueprint: layered support, strong sticks in the neutral zone, and patient counterattacks. With Nylander out, the Leafs’ top line should shoulder even more of the load, which could actually simplify their game—north-south, boards to the blue paint, crash the crease, repeat. Minnesota’s missing forwards mean a little more chip-and-chase, and a little more reliance on Kaprizov to generate off the rush.
Potential leverage points:
- Toronto’s home scoring rate is a positive signal for the Over, especially given recent game scripts that featured late swings and OT.
- Minnesota’s road defensive rate suggests they can keep the margin tight—the +1.5 is attractive in a likely one-goal window.
- Goaltending leans Leafs in current form if Woll starts; Minnesota’s choice (Gustavsson vs. Wallstedt) will matter, but their skater injuries put more on the netminder either way.
Conference and division context
- Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division: Toronto is battling within the Atlantic pack and looking to climb, especially with a strong home segment on the slate.
- Western Conference, Central Division: Minnesota remains in the upper mix of the Central, buoyed by sturdy road play and disciplined team defense when healthy.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card leans into the game flow. We like the Over 6.5 because both teams’ recent profiles skew high-event, and Toronto’s home scoring rate pairs with Minnesota’s road punch to produce chances. For the spread, Wild +1.5 fits a game that projects as a late, one-goal margin—Minnesota’s road structure travels, even with injuries. On the moneyline, we land on Toronto, a modest favorite with about a 57% win chance at home behind Woll and a still-dangerous power play. If you want a plus-money swing, Minnesota has path-to-upset elements, but the injuries nudge us toward the Leafs in their own building. Put it together: a home-side lean, a road cushion on the puck line, and a totals play that matches the pace we expect.
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