New Jersey Devils @ Pittsburgh Penguins 01/08/2026
Thursday night puck in Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m. ET at PPG Paints Arena. The Penguins are rolling, the Devils are trying to find themselves, and the market looks tight with both sides essentially priced like a coin flip. New Jersey did take the first meeting in a shootout by a single goal, but form matters, and recent form tilts toward Pittsburgh. The Pens just strung together a perfect five-game run, while New Jersey has dropped three of its last five and is dealing with key absences up front. If Evgeni Malkin is indeed ready to go after full-contact practice, that’s a huge energy boost for a group already playing with pace and confidence. Meanwhile, the Devils have to steady the ship after a rough trip.
For bettors, the moneyline is close, with Pittsburgh as favorites and New Jersey the underdog, but the underlying trends, travel lightness, and home edge make this a spot where the Pens’ momentum meets opportunity. Let’s break it down Weekes-style, with context, matchups, and a few actionable angles.
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Our betting predictions: New Jersey Devils @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Main Tip: Spread – Penguins -1.5
1) Spread: Penguins -1.5 at +210 with Caesars Sportsbook (sprinkle). Why start here? Price. Pittsburgh’s recent surge has come with improved five-on-five rhythm and a fourth line that’s tilting the ice. Over the last 10, the Pens are averaging about 3.5 goals per game while limiting opponents to roughly 3.1, and they’ve been opportunistic late. If Malkin jumps back in, that’s more punch on home ice. We project the “win by two or more” scenario around 34-36%. With the market at +210 at Caesars, there’s enough value to take a modest swing.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Pittsburgh Penguins
2) Moneyline: Penguins at an attractive odds with bet365. The path of least resistance. Pittsburgh’s five-game heater has been fueled by pace, improved structure, and better late-game management. New Jersey’s offense has hit a lull lately (about 1.6 per game over its last 10), and the Devils are still without Jack Hughes and Timo Meier. Our estimated win probability for Pittsburgh sits around 55-57% (fair price roughly -123 to -133). At best odds with bet365, that’s a playable edge.
Tip 3: Total – Under 6.5
3) Total: Under 6.5 at -120 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Despite Pittsburgh’s recent scoring uptick, situationally, this leans to a lower-scoring script. New Jersey’s recent offensive dip, combined with its ability to keep things tighter defensively (around 2.8 allowed per game over the last 10), points toward a game that can grind. Our number puts the under around 57-59%, so -120 at BetMGM Sportsbook is reasonable to fire on the total.
Team Statistics and Form Guide
- Pittsburgh Penguins (home) Record snapshot in this competition sample: 9 wins, 9 losses, with a home mark of 4-3. They’ve scored at a clip just over 3.2 per game and allowed just under 2.8 per game. That positive margin per night (roughly +0.4) matches the eye test lately—tighter gaps, cleaner exits, and more middle-lane drive. Over their last 10, Pittsburgh has hovered around 3.5 goals per game while conceding about 3.1. Discipline has been steady—around 2.7 penalties per game for roughly 5.9 minutes—so they aren’t burying themselves with trips to the box. The fourth line has been excellent during the winning streak, controlling more than half the expected goals and bringing real north-south energy. Sidney Crosby’s line-driving impact carries over to the faceoff dot, where the Pens are generally above league average. On special teams, the cohesion has looked better this past stretch, even if the overall season percentages aren’t listed; the structure has sharpened. The goaltending has stabilized, too—timely saves at key junctures and less second-chance chaos in the crease.
- Pittsburgh competes in the Metropolitan Division and sits 5th in that subgroup at this snapshot.
- New Jersey Devils (away)
Competition snapshot: 12 wins, 5 losses overall with a road record of 5-4. On the season sample listed, New Jersey’s pacing is a touch over 3.4 goals per game and allowing just under 3.0 per game. That’s a solid average margin, but recent form is the red flag: roughly 1.6 scored per game over the last 10 with about 2.8 allowed. They’ve been moderately disciplined, around 2.3 penalties per night and a shade over five penalty minutes. Without their top play-driver, Jack Hughes, and finisher Timo Meier, they’ve lost some of the rush threat and east-west creativity that typically opens seams. The blue line misses Brett Pesce’s stabilizing presence. When they’re right, the Devils generate layered looks and can roll four lines with speed; lately, they’ve struggled to finish. Special teams have been a mixed bag during this skid; again, no exact percentages here, but you can see the entries and retrievals aren’t clicking at their usual pace. Netminding has been asked to shoulder more, and the margin for error has shrunk. - Standings context: The Devils are in the Metropolitan Division as well, where they sit 6th in this snapshot of the table.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Sidney Crosby is in one of those classic stretches—points in seven straight, producing right around a point per game on the season, and dictating pace in all three zones. Erik Karlsson’s puck movement (leading Pittsburgh defensemen in helpers) is fueling controlled exits and quick-up offense. Evgeni Malkin took full contact in practice; if he slots in, that’s a morale and matchup bump. On the other side, the Devils are without Jack Hughes and Timo Meier, plus Evgenii Dadonov and Brett Pesce, which trims both their scoring punch and defensive depth. Home ice matters at PPG Paints, and Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has the last change to chase the matchups he wants. Stakes are playoff-adjacent even at this stage—both teams know these Metropolitan points are premium.
Last direct match
New Jersey edged Pittsburgh in a shootout on home ice earlier this season, a tight, low-event feel through regulation and overtime before the skills session decided it.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Penguins: 5 wins, 0 losses, including an overtime road win last time out.
- Devils: 2 wins, 3 losses, coming off a rough night on the road against the Islanders.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Penguins -1.5 at +210: This is the fun one at a price. With Pittsburgh’s momentum, home ice, and a possible Malkin return, there’s a real path to separation late—empty-net insurance is on the table if they lead. We project this outcome slightly higher than the implied probability, so a small-stakes sprinkle makes sense. Penguins moneyline at -115: The foundational play. Our projection gives the Pens a mid-50s win probability, backed by form, matchup edges at the dot, Crosby’s line driving, and coaching leverage for Sullivan at home. New Jersey’s recent offensive dip, plus the injury list supports laying a modest price. Under 6.5 at -120: Given the Devils’ current scoring rate and the Penguins’ improved structure, this profiles as a game that can land below the number. If Pittsburgh gets ahead, they’ve shown they can lock it down more effectively of late; if it’s tight through two, the in-game under will likely mirror that pace.
Bottom line: We favor Pittsburgh to continue the surge on home ice, with the safest angle on the moneyline, a plus-money ladder shot on the puck line, and a correlated play to the under based on how these teams have trended. Wrap those together, and you’ve got a clear read: trust the hotter team, trust the structure, and trust the spot.
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