New York Islanders @ Edmonton Oilers 01/15/2026
Two intriguing teams meet in Edmonton, where the Oilers welcome the Islanders at Rogers Place on Thursday, January 15, 2026. From a betting standpoint, you’ve got a strong Pacific contender at home and a Metropolitan riser that’s been stingy on special teams since the holiday break. Edmonton’s recent form has been buoyed by elite top-line play and a comfort level at home (solid home split), while New York rolls into Alberta with an even goal profile per game and a penalty kill trending among the league’s better units.
Factor in the current goalie situation for Edmonton, and you’ve got a game where the offensive stars and special teams execution could decide your ticket. The market shades toward Edmonton on the moneyline, and there’s also a case to be made for the total if both sides get to their transition and power-play looks. Let’s break it down and line up our favorite betting angles for this one.
With everything pointing in this direction, now’s the perfect time to see how the NHL betting odds stack up against the analysis.
Our betting predictions: New York Islanders @ Edmonton Oilers
Main Tip: Total Over 6.5 Goals
1) Total Over 6.5 goals at +110 with FanDuel. Why we like it: Both sides can create waves when they tilt the ice. Edmonton’s top unit can break games open in two shifts, and New York’s transition game, plus a confident power play cycle, can push the pace. The Islanders’ penalty kill has been excellent lately, but Edmonton’s top-end talent still generates premium chances. Our projection pegs the Over at about 52% (fair price around +104), which offers a small edge against the listed +110 at FanDuel. Tip: Over 6.5.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Edmonton Oilers
2) Moneyline: Edmonton Oilers at bet365. Why we like it: Home ice matters here, and Edmonton under head coach Kris Knoblauch leans into favorable matchups for its elite centers. The Islanders travel well, but Edmonton’s ability to turn neutral-zone speed into quick-strike offense gives them the higher ceiling. Market-implied probability is roughly 64%; we project the Oilers closer to 61–63% when accounting for New York’s sturdy penalty kill and goaltending. Tip: Oilers moneyline.
Tip 3: Spread – Edmonton Oilers -1.5
3) Spread: Edmonton Oilers -1.5 at +140 at bet365. Why we like it: If Edmonton’s first line dictates pace and the power play clicks even once, the game script supports a multi-goal margin. Our model lands around 44% for the Oilers by two or more, versus an implied ~41.7% at +140. With empty-net risk/reward late and Edmonton’s push in front of the home crowd, this is a plus-price worth consideration. Tip: Oilers -1.5 at bet365.
Team Statistics: Form snapshot and where the edges are
Edmonton Oilers (Home)
- Record/context: 8 wins, 11 losses; 20 points; currently 19th in the overall table snapshot for this season sample, but in the real picture, they’re pacing as a top contender in the Western Conference’s Pacific Division. Within the NHL structure (Eastern: Atlantic/Metropolitan; Western: Central/Pacific), the Oilers are battling near the top of the Pacific.
- Home split: 5 wins, 3 losses—Rogers Place boost is real. – Scoring profile: 58 goals for across 19 games translates to about 3.05 goals per game; 67 against across 19 is roughly 3.53 conceded per game.
- Special teams: The power play is a consistent threat with that top group—dangerous entries, east-west seams, and backside tap-ins—though exact percentage isn’t specified in this snapshot. The penalty kill has improved in-phase when they keep clears clean and win first touches.
- Goaltending: With Tristan Jarry sidelined, Calvin Pickard’s workload is in the spotlight. Expect situational management from Knoblauch to protect the slot and limit rebound chaos. Save percentage trends are lineup-dependent here, but team defense is the driver.
- Faceoffs/shot volume: Edmonton’s center depth helps in the dot situationally (especially offensive-zone draws for the top unit). Shot generation is typically strong via controlled entries and low-to-high rotation, even if we don’t have a hard per-game figure here.
- Recent form: 3 wins, 2 losses in their last five; most recent was an overtime setback on the road—spirited, but they left a point on the table.
New York Islanders (Away)
- Record/context: 9 wins, 9 losses; 20 points; currently 18th in the overall table snapshot for the season sample, and a real threat in the Eastern Conference’s Metropolitan Division race.
- Away split: 5 wins, 5 losses—steady travelers with a structure-first identity.
- Scoring profile: 58 goals for in 18 games equals about 3.22 goals per game; 58 allowed in 18 also sits at roughly 3.22 conceded per game, a true balance.
- Special teams: The penalty kill is tied for seventh this season at 82.0% and has ticked up post-holiday to north of 84% in a recent stretch. That’s significant against Edmonton’s dangerous power play looks. The Isles’ power play has improved with cleaner entries and quick-side options, though we won’t speculate a number here.
- Goaltending: Ilya Sorokin’s recent run features a strong save percentage around the .915 mark with multiple quality starts. He’s settled in, tracking through traffic and controlling second chances.
- Faceoffs/shot volume: The Isles’ centers grind out timely wins in the dot, and their shot volume is purposeful—looking for second-layer chances off the cycle rather than a spray-and-pray approach.
- Recent form: 3 wins, 2 losses in their last five; last outing was a high-event road game that slipped late.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Connor McDavid’s point streak remains the engine, stretching into historic company and forcing matchups that opponents rarely solve for a full 60. Leon Draisaitl’s milestone momentum and net-front finishing complement that threat. Under head coach Kris Knoblauch, Edmonton’s top unit is humming, especially at home. For the Islanders, Ilya Sorokin’s recent form—save rate around the low-.900s—has stabilized their back end, while Matthew Schaefer’s rookie surge from the blue line adds a shot of offense. Anthony Duclair’s pace and transition speed have punched New York on the wing. Injury note for Edmonton: Tristan Jarry’s IR status elevates Calvin Pickard; the Islanders continue to lean on a structured penalty kill that’s been one of the league’s best lately.
Last direct match: Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders
The most recent head-to-head tilted toward New York on home ice by a two-goal margin. The broader five-game history in this matchup favors Edmonton 3–2.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Edmonton Oilers: 3–2 over their last five; most recent outing went to extra time on the road.
- New York Islanders: 3–2 over their last five; most recent was a high-scoring road setback.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Over 6.5 at +110: With Edmonton’s elite top-end talent and the Islanders’ ability to counter and finish secondary chances, this total is live. Even with New York’s strong penalty kill, Edmonton’s pace and passing tempo can create multiple high-danger looks. Our 52% projection beats the implied 47.6%, which justifies the position at this price. Oilers moneyline: Home-ice advantage, favorable matchups for Edmonton’s top line, and the ability to tilt ice positionally make the Oilers the side. The market implies about 64%; our projection is in the low 60s, so the bet rides more on matchup confidence than raw price value, acknowledging New York’s sturdy PK and Sorokin’s form. Oilers -1.5 at +140: If Edmonton gets to its rush game and forces the Isles to chase, the spread comes into play. Late-game empty-net scenarios plus the Oilers’ finishing talent can turn a one-goal edge into a two-goal cash.
Bottom line: Edmonton’s top six and home-ice push steer our card toward Oilers moneyline and the -1.5 ladder at a plus price, while the total Over leans on game flow and special teams pressure to get us over the hump. In a league carved into East and West—Atlantic/Metropolitan in the East, Central/Pacific in the West—this one features a Metropolitan contender that can grind, but we trust the Pacific power at Rogers Place to control the matchup and the momentum.
