New York Rangers @ New York Islanders 12/27/2025
Two Original Six-era fan bases, one subway ride apart, and a Saturday night at UBS Arena—yeah, this one’s got juice. The Rangers roll across town with one of the league’s best road marks so far, while the Islanders look to flex that rivalry edge that always seems to wake up at home. From a betting angle, you’ve got to account for injuries front and center: New York Islanders head coach Patrick Roy is navigating a big-time crease adjustment with Ilya Sorokin out, and David Rittich likely getting the crease. Bo Horvat is a game-time question; his return would swing matchups down the middle instantly. The Blueshirts, meanwhile, are grinding without Adam Fox, their minutes-eater and breakout engine.
Numbers-wise, the Isles’ offense has been the more productive per night, while the Rangers have allowed fewer per game and carry that excellent road posture into Elmont. Add in rivalry intensity, special-teams leverage, and a short local commute—and we’ve got a nice mix for moneyline, spread, and totals action. Let’s dive in.
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Our betting predictions for the New York Rangers @ New York Islanders
Main Tip: Spread – Islanders -1.5
1) Spread: Islanders -1.5 at +195 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Pick: Islanders to win by two or more. Why I like it: If Horvat draws in, the Isles’ faceoff game and bumper looks on the power play gain punch, and even if he doesn’t, Patrick Roy’s group historically amps up the forecheck in this rivalry. UBS Arena energy matters, and if the Isles get the first one, their structure with a lead is tough to crack. Rittich isn’t Sorokin, but he’s been steady enough to let the skaters dictate. I price the two-plus margin around 38%, so at +195 there’s real plus-money value if you’re comfortable with variance in a rivalry game.
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Tip 2: Moneyline: Islanders ML
2) Moneyline: Islanders ML at BetMGM. Why I like it: Home ice, battle-tested coach in Roy, a defense-first identity that translates in tight divisional games, and a matchup history that tends to tilt toward the Isles when they dial up the physicality. The Rangers are a tough out—especially on the road—but losing Fox strips some transition punch and clean exits. I make the Islanders’ win probability about 56%. That’s close to market at -125 with BetMGM, but still playable for me given rivalry context and goaltending form on both sides.
Tip 3: Game Total – Over 5.5
3) Total: Over 5.5 at -115 with BetMGM. Why I like it: The Isles’ per-game scoring rate is north of three, the Rangers sit in the high two-and-change range, and both clubs can generate on quick strikes and set plays. If Horvat returns, the Isles’ finishing and net-front presence pop. If he doesn’t, the Rangers’ speed and road efficiency can do the heavy lifting. Factor in potential fatigue spots for a back-to-back goalie scenario and late-game empty-net dynamics. I project the Over around 54%, so at -115 it’s a slight lean over the number.
Team Statistics and Form Snapshot
New York Islanders (Eastern Conference – Metropolitan Division: 3rd)
- Form and identity: The Isles play a structured, responsible brand that leans on layered defending and smart support in the neutral zone. Over their 18-game sample, they’ve produced about 3.22 goals per game and allowed about 3.22 per game. At home, they’re an even split so far, but rivalry nights at UBS Arena often bring a heavier forecheck, cleaner exits through the middle, and a big lift from the crowd. Their power play has been spotty around the mid-teens percentage-wise, and without Horvat recently, the bumper touch and slot finishes have dipped. Still, under Roy, they’re quick to the inside, relentless on the walls, and committed to good habits. Between the pipes, Rittich has been serviceable with a save rate just over .900, and the team’s slot protection tends to tighten late. Faceoff-wise, Horvat is a difference-maker; if he goes, they’ll control more offensive-zone touches and manage late-game matchups with more confidence.
New York Rangers (Eastern Conference – Metropolitan Division: 5th)
- Form and identity: The Blueshirts trend toward speed through the neutral zone and puck movement off the rush, but without Adam Fox, their controlled exits and in-zone quarterbacking aren’t as automatic. Through 18 games, the Rangers are averaging about 2.67 goals per game and allowing about 2.56 per game—tighter hockey, fewer mistakes, and reliance on defensive layers. The road performance has been excellent, and you see it in their details: patient line changes, attentive backside pressure, and opportunistic finishing. Special teams have been timely rather than dominant, but the group is savvy at drawing minors with pace and possession. Between the pipes, the expectation is high standards; when they get that first big stop, everything flows. The Rangers’ faceoff game is typically competitive, but if Horvat plays, that tilts some neutral-zone and offensive-zone starts toward the Isles.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Patrick Roy’s Islanders are dealing with real lineup turbulence: Ilya Sorokin is out, so David Rittich is expected to handle the net, and Bo Horvat is a true game-time call. Horvat’s return would boost the Isles’ power-play options and faceoff control instantly. The Rangers are missing Adam Fox, a massive piece in transition and on the penalty kill. Rivalry charge matters here: both teams typically raise the physicality, and UBS Arena can swing emotional momentum fast. Holiday-break rhythm, limited travel, and the possibility of a back-to-back spot in net add volatility to the pace and scoring profile. Bottom line: if Horvat plays, Islanders’ middle six and special teams jump. If he doesn’t, the Rangers’ road form keeps this right on that coin-flip edge—where the Isles’ home push and coaching discipline can be the difference.
Last direct match
The most recent meeting tilted toward the Islanders on the road, where they authored a shutout and controlled the key areas of the ice for long stretches.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Islanders: 2 wins, 3 losses, last outing a tight home win over New Jersey.
- Rangers: 3 wins, 2 losses, last outing a convincing road win in Washington.
Let the pros guide your wagers. Our NHL expert picks break down matchups, trends, and value plays.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This rivalry is always personal, but it’s also tactical—and that’s where the Isles make their mark under Patrick Roy. With Sorokin out, the immediate thought is to fade the Isles; I’m not there. Their structure, the home environment, and the Rangers’ Fox-sized hole in transition tip the moneyline toward the home side for me. That’s why Islanders ML is on the card.
For the spread, Islanders -1.5 at +195 is the most intriguing swing. If the Isles ride the first goal and play from in front, their ability to smother the middle and capitalize late with an empty-netter makes that price pop. It won’t hit every time, but the number is friendly enough to warrant a shot.
As for the total, over 5.5 at -115 tracks with both teams’ per-game scoring profiles and situational variables. A rivalry tilt can go low-event, but the combination of special-teams opportunities, potential lineup changes, and late-game chaos nudges this toward six or more. My reads: take the Isles on the moneyline, consider the -1.5 as a value splash, and lean Over 5.5 in what should be a spirited Battle of New York.
