Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs 11/03/2025
Scotiabank Arena on a Monday night, puck drop at 7:30 ET—this one has a little sizzle for bettors and fans alike. Toronto’s been trading chances early in the schedule, sitting at 6–6 with about 3.6 goals scored per game and roughly 3.7 allowed across their first dozen. The Penguins have been sturdier in their own zone through 13 games, giving up around 2.8 per night while producing about 3.5 going the other way. That split—Toronto’s offensive pace versus Pittsburgh’s tighter defending—frames how we handicap both the moneyline and the total.
Layer in situational context: Craig Berube’s club plays at home again tomorrow, which can shape bench management and goalie usage, while Mike Sullivan’s group has traveled pretty well with a 5–3 road mark. Goaltending likely swings on Joseph Woll vs. Tristan Jarry; Woll’s technique and pop have been strong, while Jarry’s positioning and rebound control are the key counters for Pittsburgh. Toronto’s offensive ceiling is legit even with injury absences, and Pittsburgh’s transition game remains dangerous through Crosby’s line.
Special teams and faceoffs may tilt subtly toward Toronto’s stars on home ice, but Pittsburgh’s discipline and structure can slow the game into under territory. All told, the matchup points us to a measured card: respect Toronto’s matchup advantages on the moneyline, eye the under if pace control holds, and consider the puck line if the Leafs grab an early lead and dictate the middle frame.
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Our betting predictions for the match, Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Main Tip: Moneyline – who wins?
Our primary betting tip: Take Toronto on the moneyline at best odds with BetMGM Sportsbook. At home, Toronto’s scoring clip (about 3.6 per game) pairs well against a Penguins group that has leaned on structure and goaltending to stay above water. With Craig Berube’s group generating enough pressure and last change for matchup control, Toronto’s top-six should create better looks. Jarry’s capable of stealing one, but the Leafs’ depth finishing and home ice tip the balance toward the favorite.
Tip 2: Game Totals – Over/Under 6.5 goals
Our second betting prediction: Under 6.5 at -115 with Fanatics Sportsbook. The profile suggests a game shaped by Toronto’s push against Pittsburgh’s commitment to layers and sticks in lanes. The Penguins have kept their against-number under three per night on average, and if they turn this into a chess match off the rush, high-danger chances can be contained. With Woll’s calm mechanics and Toronto’s improved structure under Berube, a 60-minute script that leans controlled rather than track meet makes sense for the under.
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Tip 3: Spread – Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
Our final prediction: Toronto -1.5 at +125 with Fanatics Sportsbook. If you want plus money exposure to the Leafs, the puck line is live—especially if Toronto strikes first and forces Pittsburgh to open up. The Leafs’ top-end shooting talent can separate late, and an empty-net angle always lurks when the favorite has momentum. Risk tolerance matters: this is the most volatile leg of our trio, but the number is attractive given Toronto’s home finishing and matchup advantages.
Team news
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube’s expected to start Joseph Woll. Up front, Toronto has dealt with multiple injuries among middle-six forwards, and several key pieces have been in and out. Auston Matthews’ status has been a storyline at times this season, yet the Leafs continue to generate prime looks off O-zone retrievals and slot interchange. Chris Tanev trending toward availability soon is a positive for blue-line stability, even if the timing here is tight.
- Pittsburgh Penguins: Mike Sullivan’s group lists Evgeni Malkin as day-to-day, with the back end also managing injuries. Defenseman P.O. Joseph has been trending week-to-week, and Ryan Shea has been sidelined. Tristan Jarry is expected in the net, and the Penguins will lean on structure, Crosby’s line-driving, and a patient forecheck to throttle Toronto’s cycle game.
Toronto Maple Leafs performance check
Toronto’s early-season profile is a blend: high-end scoring talent driving about 3.6 goals per game while allowing roughly 3.7, a sign that game states have loosened at times. At home, the Leafs are 5–3, and Berube’s staff has emphasized cleaner puck management through the neutral zone to limit odd-man rushes. Special teams are trending better of late—without pinning to percentages, the feel is that the first unit’s puck movement has quickened on the half wall, while the penalty kill has tightened entries and taken away the seam.
In the faceoff circle, Toronto typically gains a small territorial edge with Matthews and Tavares, which feeds shot volume and O-zone time. Goaltending with Woll offers compact technique and rebound control that fits an under-lean if the Leafs aren’t giving up the blue line too easily. The key for Toronto tonight: start on time, win the middle of the ice, and finish chances on second touches in front of Jarry.
How is the current performance of the Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh sits in the Metropolitan and has opened 8–5, built on two-way discipline and a goals-against rate under 3 per game. On the road, a 5–3 mark underscores Mike Sullivan’s templated approach: layered neutral-zone pressure, smart puck support, and net-front box-outs that keep opponents to the outside.
Without quoting specific power-play and penalty-kill figures, the Penguins’ special teams have been steadier—especially the kill, which benefits from strong sticks and predictable rotations. Crosby continues to drive possession and tilt the ice, and if Malkin is available, that secondary creation helps Pittsburgh avoid long defensive shifts. Jarry’s form has held well; if he tracks through traffic and controls rebounds, the Penguins can drag this into a lower-event game that suits their road formula.
Team Statistics
- – Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic, Eastern): approximately 3.6 goals per game scored and about 3.7 allowed through 12. Home ice has been a positive with a winning record, and faceoff edges often help with time-on-ice distribution in favorable matchups.
- – Pittsburgh Penguins (Metropolitan, Eastern): roughly 3.5 goals per game scored and about 2.8 allowed through 13. Road form is reliable, reflecting strong team structure and attention to detail in the D-zone.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Goaltending: Joseph Woll is slated for Toronto, Tristan Jarry for Pittsburgh. Woll’s compact style pairs well with a calmer Leaf structure under Berube. Jarry has been steady this season and is capable of stealing momentum with early saves.
- – Injuries: Toronto has navigated multiple forward injuries, which can compress their lines but also promote sharper puck movement from the core. Pittsburgh’s day-to-day status for Malkin is notable; if he dresses, secondary offense gets a bump.
- – Scheduling: Toronto has another home date tomorrow, which could influence bench deployment and energy management. Pittsburgh’s travel has been manageable; they’ve been comfortable on the road with a blueprint that travels.
- – Momentum: In recent head-to-heads, Toronto’s had the edge, taking four of the last five. Matchups between Crosby’s line and Toronto’s top pair will swing O-zone time. If Nylander and Marner find pockets off the rush, Toronto’s finishing rate improves quickly.
Last direct match: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Their most recent meeting was a wild one that ended in overtime with Toronto securing the extra point on the road. It featured plenty of pace, big-moment plays from stars on both sides, and a reminder that these teams can trade chances when the game opens up. Toronto’s skill line delivered the clincher quickly in OT, while Crosby led a spirited push that kept Pittsburgh right there deep into the night.
Performance last 5 matches
– Toronto Maple Leafs: 3 wins, 2 losses. The Leafs continue to lean on their scoring depth while improving defensive details under Berube. – Pittsburgh Penguins: 2 wins, 3 losses. The Penguins’ defensive structure has generally traveled, but they’ve needed more consistent finishing to cash in close ones.
Last match results Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins
- – Toronto: A comfortable road win in Philadelphia, sealed by multi-goal separation and a strong third period.
- – Pittsburgh: A tough road night in Winnipeg, where the Jets pulled away late, forcing Pittsburgh to chase.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re backing Toronto on the moneyline thanks to the combination of home-ice matchup control, finishing talent, and Woll’s steadying presence. For the total, we like Under 6.5 at -115—Pittsburgh’s road identity leans conservative, and if Jarry locks in, this tightens quickly. For plus money pop, Toronto -1.5 at +125 is the sprinkle: if the Leafs score first, their top-six can create separation late. That trio gives you a balanced card—one safer angle, one pace read, and one higher-variance shot at value.
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