Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings 02/25/2026
Two teams that know each other well and aren’t shy about playing on the front foot square off at Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday night: the Vegas Golden Knights visiting the Los Angeles Kings at 10:00 ET. For bettors, this one sets up like a classic Western Conference, Pacific Division coin flip on the board but not necessarily in the matchup dynamics. Vegas has pushed its offense to an above-league-average clip this season, while L.A. has been searching for rhythm at home. The Kings just went into the Olympic pause trying to fix their special teams and get healthy, and they’ll need a crisp start in front of their fans to keep Vegas from dictating with pace and layered entries.
We’ve got recent momentum (Vegas took the last head-to-head in February), injury ripples on both sides, and a price that suggests a virtual pick’em. That creates a path for value—particularly on totals—and a lean on the side if you believe L.A. can bottle up the middle of the ice and win the slot battle. Let’s get into it.
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Betting prediction for match Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings
The market is dealing a 50/50 feel on the moneyline—both teams around -110—and that tells you how tight oddsmakers view this spot. My model slightly favors Los Angeles at home with a 52% win probability and pegs Vegas at 48%, largely because of situational edges after the break and the Knights’ injury load on the blue line and in net. The better pure value, however, sits on the total. Vegas games profile toward offense more than L.A.’s, but the Kings’ transition game is due for a bounce, especially if they force neutral-zone turnovers and attack off the rush.
Our betting predictions: Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings
Main Pick: Totals – Over 5.5 Goals
1) Over 5.5 goals at -115 (Best Bet at FanDuel Sportsbook). The season-long scoring profile points upward. Vegas is generating about 3.35 goals per game, and the Kings are at roughly 2.61. Add in Vegas’s goals against per game (3.14) and L.A.’s goals against per game (2.88), and you’ve got two teams whose average outcomes lean toward six combined. Vegas’s power play—tracking around 25.5%—is a difference-maker, and L.A. tends to open up when chasing. With both sides coming out of a long layoff, a bit of defensive looseness early would not surprise me.
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Pick 2: Los Angeles Kings Moneyline
2) Kings’ moneyline at an attractive odds with BetMGM Sportsbook. It’s tight, but I like L.A. at home off the reset under head coach Jim Hiller. The Kings’ forecheck can neutralize Vegas’s breakout when it’s rolling, and crypto.com Arena has a way of getting the home side playing downhill. Factor in Vegas’s injury situation (notably on defense and in goal), and I’m comfortable with a small edge to the Kings to get the points in regulation or beyond.
Pick 3: Spread – Kings -1.5
3) Kings -1.5 (+1.5 alt fade) at +220 with BetMGM Sportsbook (sprinkle). If you like the Kings, the plus-price puck line is the way to leverage that conviction. It’s obviously higher variance, but L.A.’s path to clearing the number comes from winning special teams (they were 0-for-5 the last time out, which suggests positive regression) and jumping ahead early. Correlates with the moneyline pick; if you’re on Vegas instead, skip this and stick to the straight result.
Team form and pace check: Where the numbers point
Los Angeles Kings (home)
- Record and table context: In the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, they’re in the lower half, but this is a rivalry spot at home where form can flip quickly.
- Recent results: L.A. has one win in its last five, including a stumble against Vegas before the break. Their home ledger has lagged, which is exactly why the reset is timely.
- Scoring profile: About 2.61 goals per game and 2.88 allowed. That’s a slim negative goal differential on a per-game basis, but not an unfixable gap—especially if the offense gets an early strike and forces stretch play from Vegas.
- Special teams: Last head-to-head, the Kings had chances but couldn’t capitalize on the man advantage. Expect tactical tweaks from Jim Hiller to free up the bumper and backside weak‑side shot.
- Goaltending and possession: Save percentage has been about league average of late; faceoff execution will matter to curb Vegas’s set‑play looks in the offensive zone. L.A. can tilt the ice when its top six controls the dot.
Vegas Golden Knights (road)
- Record and table context: Within the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, they’ve been in the upper tier—the trend line earlier in February had them right near the top.
- Recent results: Two wins in the last five, including that confident showing against L.A. prior to the break. In games where they get their first goal, their forecheck and layered defense travel well.
- Scoring profile: Roughly 3.35 goals per game and 3.14 allowed. The offense is comfortably above average, and they can hit in waves when Jack Eichel’s line gets zone time.
- Special teams: Power play around 25.5% on the season—top tier—and the penalty kill sits just north of 81%, also solid.
- Goaltending and possession: Injuries complicate the crease picture; if Vegas needs to go deeper down the depth chart, rebound control and traffic management in front become major swing factors.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Vegas stars have been humming: Jack Eichel and Mark Stone drove the previous meeting, and Mitch Marner continues to supply touch and tempo on entries. Ivan Barbashev’s recent point rhythm adds secondary fuel. On the Kings’ side, Trevor Moore remains a bright spot, and Adrian Kempe’s streakiness can swing a game if he gets one early. L.A. suffered a massive blow with Kevin Fiala’s season-ending injury. They also brought in Artemi Panarin via trade; if he’s not ready, L.A. will lean more on Moore-Kopitar-Kempe for primary creation. Coaching angle: Jim Hiller’s Kings will want to clean up the power play details after a dry night in the last head-to-head. Post‑break legs can be a little loose defensively league‑wide, which supports our total over play.
Last direct match: Los Angeles Kings vs Vegas Golden Knights
The last meeting went Vegas’s way at T‑Mobile, 4–1, with the Knights controlling the middle frame and special teams tempo.
Performance last 5 matches
- Kings: 1 win, 4 losses, trying to reset at home.
- Golden Knights: 2 wins, 3 losses, offense trending better than defense.
Standings snapshot: Western Conference, Pacific Division
- Vegas: Upper tier of the Pacific, trending as a top‑three profile with an above‑average attack.
- Los Angeles: Lower half of the Pacific at the moment, but capable of climbing thanks to veteran spine and improved special teams.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Over 5.5 at -115 is our favorite look. The combined per‑game scoring profiles point to six or more, and Vegas’s elite power play can break this open even if the game starts tight. Kings ML -110 is the side. At home, after a long pause, with a clear mandate from Jim Hiller to sharpen the details and protect the house, L.A. has a slight situational edge. Vegas’s injuries on the back end and in goal add variance that benefits the home side. Kings -1.5 at +220 is a correlated sprinkle if you’re backing the Kings. If L.A. plays from in front—and wins the special teams battle—the margin can land.
How we got here: pace-and-space indicators favor goals; Vegas’s offense pushes the total toward six, while L.A.’s need to assert at home supports a more open game. The side is thinner, but the Kings’ setup and the Knights’ health picture tip us to L.A. with a modest probability edge. Stick with the Over as the primary play, and if you ride the Kings, consider pairing ML with the alternative puck line for a plus‑money kicker.
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