Washington Capitals @ Chicago Blackhawks 01/09/2026
Two teams on different vibes meet under the lights at the United Center on Friday night, and there’s real betting intrigue baked in. Chicago has punched back from a rough stretch with a three-game heater and a 4-1 run over its last five, while Washington’s form has been choppier at 2-3 across its last five and coming off a rough home setback against Dallas. The last time these teams saw each other, Chicago took it in a shootout on the road; now they’ve got home ice, a crowd that’s starting to buzz, and head coach Jeff Blashill pushing the right buttons.
From a numbers standpoint, Chicago’s producing around 3.29 goals per game and keeping opponents to about 2.65. Washington sits near 2.88 goals per game with a similar defensive clip allowed. Goaltending shapes this matchup too: Spencer Knight’s been steady for the Hawks, and Logan Thompson has offered reliable structure for the Caps. Add in the Tom Wilson day-to-day status on Washington’s side and the Connor Bedard “could he go this weekend?” drumbeat in Chicago, and you’ve got the kind of game where timing, matchups, and special teams discipline will swing the ticket. With Moneyline, Puck Line, and Totals in play, let’s break down where the edges are for bettors in a fast, physical matchup that should be decided by who wins more battles in front of the blue paint.
Who’s lifting the Cup this season? Check NHL Futures betting odds and see where the favorites stand!
Our betting predictions: Washington Capitals @ Chicago Blackhawks
Main Tip: Total Under 6.0 Goals
1) Total Under 6.0 goals (estimated price -105 at DraftKings; 54% probability). Why we like it: Both teams are allowing around 2.65 goals per game and are backstopped by goalies in form (Thompson .913 SV%, Knight .909 SV%). Washington’s offense loses punch with Tom Wilson sidelined day-to-day, and even if Chicago is trending up, Blashill’s group has stabilized its team defense, keeping the house tighter and forcing opponents to the outside. If Bedard remains out or limited, Chicago’s top-end creativity is also capped a touch. The path to cashing looks like a controlled, structured game at five-on-five and fewer second-chance looks off net-front scrums. Numbers say modest pace and playoff-style details. Tip: Under 6.0 to -105 or better.
Is DraftKings worth it? Find out in our honest DraftKings Sportsbook review and see what sets it apart!
Tip 2: Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline
2) Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline (56% probability). Why we like it: Chicago’s recent surge is backed by better five-on-five layers and sharper puck management exiting their own zone. The Hawks have ripped off four wins in five and claimed the last head-to-head in a shootout, while Washington’s top-six is thinner without Wilson. Knight has been good enough to let the Hawks win the middle of the ice, and Chicago’s forecheck is creating more turnovers that translate to quick-strike offense. The United Center has been livelier of late, and the Hawks have begun to bank points at home. Tip: Chicago ML.
Tip 3: Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 (Puck Line)
3) Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 (Puck Line) (estimated price +190 at BetMGM; 35% probability). Why we like it: If you’re hunting plus-money and already leaning to the Hawks, the correlation play is the Puck Line. With Washington running thinner on the wing and Chicago’s confidence growing, this sets up for a scenario where the Hawks can pull away late, especially if they’re up a goal and the Caps have to open up in the third. Knight’s performance trends support a multi-goal margin possibility when Chicago gets the first one. Tip: Small stake on Hawks -1.5 at +190.
Team Statistics: Form, Identity, and where the edges live
Chicago Blackhawks (Central Division, Western Conference, current form arrow pointing up)
- Recent form: 4-1 over the last five, including a statement home win against St. Louis, and a road shootout win in D.C. The confidence is evident in how they manage leads late.
- Scoring/Defense: About 3.29 goals per game for, 2.65 against. That positive per-game goal differential reflects cleaner exits, better support through the neutral zone, and a forecheck that’s winning pucks back.
- Goaltending: Spencer Knight sports a 2.63 GAA and a .909 save percentage. The technique looks compact, with better rebound control and tracking through screens.
- Special teams snapshot: Momentum-wise, the Hawks are drawing more penalties with improved o-zone time, but the bigger edge has been five-on-five structure. Without hard numbers available here, the trend is that their PK rotations are cleaner and their PP entries crisper when they keep it simple.
- Faceoffs and possession: They’ve been closer to break-even of late, which is a step forward from earlier in the season. Winning a few more neutral-zone draws has helped them control tempo.
- Standings context: Western Conference, Central Division—climbing from the lower tier, gaining ground after a tough start. Coach Jeff Blashill has them trending in the right direction, focusing on layers in front of the crease and quick support on retrievals.
Washington Capitals (Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference, trying to stabilize)
- Recent form: 2-3 over the last five, most recently a rough home result vs. Dallas. Washington did earn a point in the last head-to-head with Chicago (shootout), but the club hasn’t strung together full 60s consistently.
- Scoring/Defense: About 2.88 goals per game for, 2.65 against. The defensive clip is respectable; the challenge is finishing chances, which gets tougher without Tom Wilson.
- Goaltending: Logan Thompson continues to be a strong backbone at 2.39 GAA and .913 save percentage. He gives them a game every night; the Caps just need the group in front to limit east-west looks and clean up net-front traffic rebounds.
- Special teams snapshot: Washington’s identity typically includes a heavy one-timer threat and strong puck movement on the PP. Without Wilson’s net-front presence and retrievals, the unit can get a touch more predictable. PK has generally been organized—again, we’re speaking to trend, not precise percentages.
- Faceoffs and possession: The Caps have been inconsistent on the dots of late; when they start on the puck, they can roll lines and maintain rhythm.
- Standings context: Eastern Conference, Metropolitan Division—currently slotted mid-pack (7th in the Metro per recent notes), jostling around the Wild Card line, but the margin is thin and points are precious on the road.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Tom Wilson (WSH) is day-to-day with a lower-body issue after a collision in the last meeting. He’d been hot before the injury, and his absence dings Washington’s net-front muscle and finishing rate.
- Connor Bedard (CHI) is day-to-day with a shoulder issue; if he’s back, it’s a massive spark to Chicago’s top line. If not, the Hawks have still found traction with depth scoring and a forecheck-first blueprint.
- Goaltending shapes the total: Thompson (.913) and Knight (.909) are trending steadily, and this matchup could come down to second chances off traffic.
- Schedule/travel: Caps hit the road on a mentorship trip—great for team bonding, but it’s still a road challenge in a loud building. Not a back-to-back for either side, so both benches should roll four lines with energy.
Last direct match
Chicago edged Washington on the road in a shootout in the most recent meeting, a tight contest that tilted late and underscored the small margins between these clubs.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Chicago Blackhawks: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Washington Capitals: 2 wins, 3 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s how we landed on our three-pack of plays. First, the Under 6.0 leads because both defenses have tightened up, and the goaltending matchup points to fewer clean looks. Washington’s lineup is thinner without Wilson, and Chicago’s structure under Jeff Blashill has cut down on odd-man rushes. Second, we like Chicago on the Moneyline. Current form, home ice, and improved five-on-five detail are meaningful edges, and if Bedard returns in any capacity, that only adds juice to the Hawks’ top-six. Third, the sprinkle play is Chicago -1.5 at plus money, a correlated add-on if you’re already on Hawks ML; a late empty-netter or a game state that forces Washington to chase can tip the margin.
Probability and price-wise, our numbers make the Under at 54%, Chicago ML at 56%, and Hawks -1.5 at 35%. Bet discipline matters: prioritize the Under and Moneyline as primary positions, then scale down to the Puck Line as a small, higher-variance swing. In a matchup that likely turns on crease battles, puck management, and special teams discipline, Chicago’s recent clarity of identity at home is the edge we trust.
| Trustnbet list of Best Sportsbook Bonus & Promo Codes | |
|---|---|
| BetMGM Bonus Code | bet365 Bonus Code |
| Fanatics Bonus Code | Underdog Promo Code |
| Caesars Bonus Code | Draftkings Sign Up Bonus |
| Fanduel Deposit Bonus | List of Best Sportsbook Bonus Promos |
