Ole Miss @ Kentucky NCAAB 01/24/2026
It’s SEC Matchday, and the noon tip in Lexington has that perfect Saturday energy. Ole Miss rolls in trying to steady the ship after some ups and downs, while Kentucky, under head coach Mark Pope, looks to keep stacking SEC wins on its home floor. From a betting perspective, there’s a clear storyline: the Wildcats have been more consistent across the last five, and they’ve protected home court, while Ole Miss has shown they can score in bunches but haven’t always matched that with stops. With Kentucky sitting 7th in the table at 4-2 and Ole Miss at 3-3 and 15th, this matchup offers that classic SEC contrast—tempo, toughness, and late-game execution. And yes, the previous meeting went the Rebels’ way, so you can bet there’s a little extra edge in the building. We’ll lean into pace, recent form, and the shot profile both ways to frame the moneyline, spread, and total angles for your Saturday card.
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Betting prediction for match Ole Miss Rebels @ Kentucky Wildcats
Let’s talk probabilities and how that translates to American odds before we plant our flag with picks: – Win probability (projected): Kentucky 61% (about -155); Ole Miss 39% (about +158) – Pace/total outlook: With each side averaging in the upper 70s per game and both defenses allowing around the high 70s into the low 80s, my model projects a total in the mid-150s.
This sets up a confident read on the total and a modest edge on Kentucky at home, with the spread correlated to the Wildcats’ improved defensive splits in Lexington.
Our betting predictions: Ole Miss Rebels @ Kentucky Wildcats
Main Pick: Total – Over 153.5
1) Total – Over 153.5 (projected price around -110 at bet365). Why: Kentucky is averaging roughly 79.0 points per game through six in this SEC slate, while Ole Miss is around 77.3. On the other end, Kentucky is allowing about 77.0, Ole Miss around 81.5. The combined offensive averages and the defensive concessions both point toward a game that clears the low-to-mid 150s if the pace holds. Shot-making on both sides, particularly Kentucky’s home scoring lift and Ole Miss’s perimeter confidence, supports this lean. Estimated hit rate: 54–56%.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Kentucky
2) Moneyline – Kentucky (at best odds with BetMGM). Why: The Wildcats are 4-1 over their last five with a strong home profile, and their home splits show a lift on both ends—they’re scoring about 81.7 per contest at home while holding visitors several points lower than their road allowance. With a 61% win probability on my numbers, the moneyline still carries value in parlays or as a standalone if you’re comfortable laying moderate juice.
Pick 3: Spread – Kentucky -3.5
3) Spread – Kentucky -3.5 (projected price around -110 at BetMGM). Why: Correlated with the moneyline edge and Kentucky’s home defensive improvement. The Wildcats’ average margin is a slim positive overall, but it expands at home. Ole Miss remains dangerous, yet their defensive average allowed sits in the low 80s, which opens the door for a two-possession cover. Estimated cover probability: ~53–54%.
Team form and stats snapshot
Kentucky Wildcats (Home)
- Table position: 7th; record: 4-2 (home: 2-1; away: 2-1)
- Points per game: 79.0 scored; 77.0 allowed (through six)
- Home split: about 81.7 scored and 73.7 allowed per home game
- Recent form: 4 wins in the last 5, including a tight home win last time out against a rugged Texas team
- What it means: Under Mark Pope, Kentucky’s shot diet at home has been steady—good pace, balanced scoring—and the defense tightens in Lexington. That home split (scoring up, points allowed down) is the backbone of both the moneyline and spread recommendations.
Ole Miss Rebels (Away)
- Table position: 15th; record: 3-3 (home: 2-1; away: 2-1)
- Points per game: about 77.3 scored; 81.5 allowed (through six)
- Road split: roughly 78.3 scored and 82.7 allowed per road game
- Recent form: 3 wins in the last 5; last outing saw them stumble at home to a top-tier Auburn group
- What it means: Ole Miss can score and stretch you from deep, but the defensive profile has leaked. If they control turnovers and get whistle-friendly trips, they can absolutely hang. Still, the defensive average allowed points to a game state where Kentucky’s offense finds enough pockets to score consistently.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Mark Pope’s Wildcats have leaned on depth and energy, and they’ve found late-game resolve even when rotations have shifted. Emerging two-way wings and a versatile big man like Amari Williams give Kentucky a sturdy interior and downhill punch. For Ole Miss, Chris Beard’s group is built around shot-makers—think Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray, and the physical presence of Malik Dia—who can flip a run in two or three possessions when the arc heats up. Context matters: Kentucky’s home defensive lift is real, while Ole Miss’s perimeter volatility can either push this total to the high side or stall possessions if they go cold. The previous head-to-head leaned Rebels, but the setting and Kentucky’s improved form tilt this rematch back toward the Wildcats.
Last direct match
Ole Miss took the previous meeting in Oxford by a comfortable margin—Kentucky will have that fresh in mind as they return to their home floor for this one.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Kentucky Wildcats: 4 wins, 1 loss; trending up, including a gritty home result last time out.
- Ole Miss Rebels: 3 wins, 2 losses; still dangerous offensively but looking for a steadier defensive footprint.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Best angle: Over 153.5 (around -110). The averages on both sides set a baseline in the mid-150s, and Kentucky’s home scoring bump plus Ole Miss’s pace-friendly profile reinforce the Over. – Moneyline: Kentucky (about -155). Model edge to the Wildcats at home with a 61% win probability, backed by better recent form and improved defensive numbers in Lexington. – Spread: Kentucky -3.5 (around -110). Correlated with the moneyline edge, the Wildcats’ home splits support a two-possession cushion if they limit second-chance looks and keep turnovers manageable.
Bottom line: Kentucky’s combination of home-court scoring and sturdier defense shapes the side, while Ole Miss’s shot creation and defensive concessions guide us toward the Over. We’re banking on the Wildcats to control late, and for pace and efficiency to push this total above our number.
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