Oregon @ Indiana NCAA Football 01/09/2026
Two heavyweight programs. One win from the big stage. Oregon heads east to Atlanta to meet undefeated Indiana in the Peach Bowl CFP Semifinal on Friday night (Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET), a neutral-site showdown with real juice for bettors. The market has leaned toward the Hoosiers, nudging this number to Indiana -4.5 and trimming the total to 47.5 as respect for both defenses takes hold. If you’re weighing the moneyline, sportsbooks have lined Indiana as the favorite at -185 and Oregon as a live ‘dog near +160.
We’ve got a fascinating rematch angle here, too: Indiana won 30-20 in October, and that game turned on pressure and takeaways late. Since then, both teams have tightened up, and both are coming off statement wins—Indiana blanketing Alabama 38-3, Oregon posting a 23-0 shutout against Texas Tech. Add in the coaching chess match—Curt Cignetti’s crisp, disciplined operation versus Dan Lanning’s aggressive, flexible approach—and you’ve got a semifinal that’s going to hinge on protection, explosives, and who handles red-zone moments when the field shrinks. Let’s break it down and find the best edges.
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Our betting predictions: Oregon @ Indiana
Top pick: Totals – Under 47.5 Points
1) Top pick: Under 47.5 points at -115 with BetMGM. Why: Both defenses are elite at limiting explosives and shrinking passing windows. Indiana allows about 10.1 points per game on average, while Oregon is right there at roughly 15.1 per game. In a dome, yes, offenses can hum, but these secondaries and pass-rush groups travel. Our estimate gives the Under about a 58% chance to cash, so at -115 you’re getting value. Both quarterbacks are efficient, but both defenses are built to erase the first read and force long drives—perfect Under profile in a national-semifinal intensity spot.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Indiana to Win
2) Moneyline: Indiana to win at bet365. Why: The Hoosiers’ defense has been the steadiest unit on the field all season and just held Alabama’s offense to a field goal. Our model puts Indiana’s win probability near 63% (fair moneyline around -170), while Oregon sits near 37%. That’s not a giant edge versus the sticker price, but combine Indiana’s pass defense with the fact that no opposing QB has thrown more than one TD pass in any game against them this season, and the floor is awfully high for a semifinal. Add Curt Cignetti’s game management and situational polish, and Indiana deserves chalk status.
Tip 3: Spread – Indiana -4.0
3) Spread: Indiana -4.0 at -120 with bet365. Why: If you can buy to -4.0 at -110, that’s a sensible way to ride Indiana’s defensive advantage without paying the full tax of a larger number. Oregon’s Dante Moore is superb, but Indiana’s pass rush and coverage integrity have forced mistakes all year. We rate the Hoosiers around 55% to cover -4.0, and we prefer that number over -4.5 to reduce the push/loss risk in a game that could grind late.
Team Statistics and current form
Indiana Hoosiers (home team, neutral-site):
- Form snapshot: 14-0, 100% win rate, zero losses, and just demolished Alabama 38-3. That’s not a résumé line; that’s a proof of concept. Indiana has been the most consistent defense in the nation, with about 10.1 points per game allowed, and they haven’t conceded more than one passing TD in any single game this season. That translates to roughly 0.5 passing TDs allowed per game on average—a staggeringly stingy figure. The Hoosiers generate steady pressure without selling out, and their coverage units pass off routes with high-level discipline.
- Passing and rushing tendencies: Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza has operated at around 71.5% completion with about 212.9 passing yards per game, pairing accuracy with excellent decision-making (roughly 2.36 passing TDs and 0.43 INTs per game). On the ground, Indiana’s tandem approach has kept them on schedule; they don’t need gaudy rushing totals—just reliable four- to five-yard chunks and converted short yardage.
- Defensive efficiency: Indiana wins early downs, sets up obvious passing situations, and then turns the pass rush loose. The net effect: fewer explosives, shorter opponent drives, and favorable field position. Their per-game turnovers forced rate has hovered in the plus range, and they’re clean tackling in space, trimming YAC.
- Coaching: Head coach Curt Cignetti has this group playing fast but under control. Situational execution—third down, red zone, two-minute—has been a strength all season.
Oregon Ducks (away team):
- Form snapshot: 13-1, a 92.9% win rate, and their latest result was a 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech. You don’t whitewash a capable offense without being buttoned-up front to back. Oregon is surrendering about 15.1 points per game and 4.3 yards per play, which travels well into a semifinal environment.
- Passing and rushing tendencies: Dante Moore averages about 217.6 passing yards per game with an efficient touchdown rate (roughly 2.0 passing TDs per game) and minimal mistakes (about 0.57 INTs per game). Oregon’s pass game—especially with Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. trending toward bigger snap counts—can stress you horizontally and vertically. On the ground, the Ducks can grind enough to keep the chains moving; they don’t need volume, just balance.
- Defensive efficiency: The Ducks’ front just held Texas Tech to a minuscule rushing clip and generated four turnovers, headlined by Brandon Finney Jr.’s three-takeaway showcase. Tackling has been crisp, angles disciplined, and the interior has been stout against inside zone and duo looks.
- Coaching: Dan Lanning’s group adapts well in-game, mixes coverages, and brings pressure selectively to protect the back end. The Ducks’ defensive identity has hardened late in the year.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has been hyper-efficient, averaging roughly 212.9 passing yards per outing with a strong TD-to-INT rate, and he’s coming off a near-flawless night versus Alabama.
- Oregon’s Dante Moore has the arm talent to threaten every blade of turf; with WRs Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. healthier, the Ducks’ ceiling is higher this week.
- Defensively, Indiana’s back end has limited passing scores to about 0.5 per game and just smothered Alabama; Oregon just posted a shutout and throttled the run.
- External: Mercedes-Benz Stadium dome, no weather, neutral site. Both teams arrive with about eight days of rest, and the stakes—win, and you’re in—tighten decision-making. Coaching edge is razor-close: Curt Cignetti’s efficient structure vs. Dan Lanning’s adaptive, aggressive style.
Last direct match
Indiana 30-20 at Oregon in October. The game was tied 20-20 in the fourth before the Hoosiers pulled away, with six sacks and two interceptions of Dante Moore tipping the balance late.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Indiana: 5 wins, 0 losses; latest win 38-3 vs. Alabama.
- Oregon: 5 wins, 0 losses; latest win 23-0 vs. Texas Tech.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This sets up as a defense-forward semifinal where every explosive play feels like a sudden momentum swing. Our strongest angle is the Under 47.5. Both defenses compress space, both secondaries are disciplined, and both coordinators are comfortable forcing long, clock-eating drives. That profile carries real weight in a playoff dome game.
On the side, Indiana’s combination of pass rush and coverage, plus the way Curt Cignetti manages leverage situations, nudges the moneyline toward the Hoosiers. The spread is close to fair at -4.5, which is why we recommend finding Indiana -4.0 if available—it trims your exposure if the game lives in the three-to-seven range, which our projection suggests is very possible.
Bottom line:
- Under 47.5 (value edge from defensive efficiency and pace)
- Indiana moneyline (floor play tied to elite pass defense and coaching execution)
- Indiana -4.0 (buy to the key window for a smarter position)
If the Ducks protect better than they did in the first meeting and hit a couple of verticals early, this could get interesting. But over 60 minutes, Indiana’s defense and situational polish give them the inside lane.
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