Penn State @ Clemson NCAA Football 12/27/2025
It’s the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, Saturday, Dec 27, 2025, 12:00 ET, and the market has shifted toward the Tigers. Clemson is priced as a favorite on the moneyline with a -3.5 spread, while Penn State sits underdogs on the moneyline. The total is 48.5 with both sides near offensive play. Form-wise, Clemson has been hot down the stretch (4-1 in its last five), while Penn State enters on a 3-2 run, including a wild 40-36 finish over Rutgers.
From a numbers angle, Clemson’s last five outings have averaged 32.4 points scored and 19.8 allowed, a healthy +12.6 margin. Penn State’s last five show 28.6 scored and 24.2 allowed, a +4.4 margin. That sets the stage for a competitive game with the Tigers’ defense trending stronger, but opt-outs could push this into a more open script than their November profile suggests. Dabo Swinney’s bunch looks a little more stable, but Penn State’s late-season passing rhythm and special teams can keep this tight.
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Our betting predictions for Penn State @ Clemson
Best Bet: Spread – Penn State +3.5
1) Spread: Penn State +3.5 at -125 with Caesars Sportsbook (estimated 55% to cover). With Clemson a modest moneyline favorite, the hook at +3.5 is valuable for a game that profiles as one-possession late. Clemson’s front-seven absences could soften their run fits and pressure rate, letting Penn State stay on schedule. If the Tigers win, it’s not hard to see it landing within a field goal. Pick: Penn State +3.5 at -125 with Caesars Sportsbook.
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Tip 2: Total – Over 48.5 Points
2) Total: Over 48.5 at -115 with bet365 (estimated 53% to hit). The recent scoring forms add up: Clemson at 32.4 per game in its last five and Penn State at 28.6—together that’s a 61.0-point combined average entering this one. Yes, bowl opt-outs can create choppiness, but they can also produce busted coverages and missed fits. With both starting QBs set to go and several defensive starters out, the Over has life. Pick: Over 48.5 at -115 with bet365.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Clemson to Win
3) Moneyline: Clemson to win (estimated 58% win chance; fair price at bet365). The Tigers’ late-season defense and in-game adjustments under head coach Dabo Swinney give them a slight edge in the fourth quarter. Our win projection leans toward Clemson, even as we prefer the Nittany Lions +3.5 on the spread. Pick: Clemson moneyline at bet365.
Team Statistics: Clemson trending up behind late-season surge
- Recent form and scoreboard profile: Clemson has won 4 of its last 5 (80% win rate, 20% loss rate), including a 28-14 win over South Carolina. Over the last five, the Tigers average 32.4 points scored and 19.8 allowed, a +12.6 average margin. That’s the picture of a team tightening screws late.
- Quarterback snapshot: Cade Klubnik’s reported season line suggests a 63.4% completion rate with roughly 7.5 yards per attempt, a strong TD rate around 7.4% per throw, and a low INT rate near 1.2% per throw. Those are efficiency indicators, not raw totals, and they match the eye test—quicker decisions, fewer risky throws.
- Situational read: As a favorite around a field goal, Clemson’s implied win probability is just north of 60% at market price, but adjustment-heavy bowl games tend to compress margins. Still, Swinney’s game management in tight spots—and a defense that, pre-opt-outs, was allowing under 20 a game across the recent stretch—has been the separator.
- ATS note: Clemson was 5-7 ATS in the regular season. That’s a negative return, but November looked sharper, with three straight outings of 20, 24, and 45 points scored at home and a rivalry win away. The Tigers’ defense late in the year limited explosive plays and leaned on a pass rush that often dictated downs. Attrition could alter that, but the foundation is there.
Team Statistics: Penn State finding late-season rhythm
- Recent form and scoreboard profile: Penn State has won 3 of its last 5 (60% win rate, 40% losses), capped by a 40-36 win over Rutgers. The Nittany Lions’ last-five averages: 28.6 points scored, 24.2 allowed, for a +4.4 margin. Not as dominant as Clemson’s split, but the trend is upward in key situations.
- Quarterback snapshot: Over his last six starts, Ethan Grunkemeyer completed about 69% with roughly 179 passing yards per game, around 1 TD per game, and a noticeable dip in turnovers down the stretch. Across the final two games, his completion rate hovered in the mid-80s with a punchy 12.5 yards per attempt—showing confidence on layered throws.
- Situational read: A 3.5-point underdog with a recent track record of late-game competence is live to cover. Penn State was 4-8 ATS in the regular season, but the passing game’s improvement and a defense that, while allowing 24.2 per game in the last five, still produced timely stops, kept them in range. The finishing kick—three wins in the last three—adds belief.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Reports indicate both teams are shorthanded, with Clemson missing a large chunk of scholarship players due to injuries and opt-outs—several names from the defensive front and secondary among them. Penn State also has notable absences, including at running back and along the defensive line and secondary. Both starting QBs—Cade Klubnik for Clemson and Ethan Grunkemeyer for Penn State—are expected to go, which stabilizes offensive game plans. Coaching note: Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney remains the constant on the Tigers’ sideline. For Penn State, an interim-led staff manages bowl duties amid broader staff turnover. Historically, Big Ten teams have had success in this bowl setting, and cold New York conditions can favor disciplined run fits and efficient short-area passing—both QBs have shown improved accuracy lately, hinting at a balanced, high-leverage script.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Clemson: 4 wins, 1 loss; last game a 28-14 win over South Carolina.
- Penn State: 3 wins, 2 losses; last game a 40-36 win over Rutgers.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re threading the needle here: our model leans Clemson straight up while grabbing Penn State with the hook and riding the Over. Why? The Tigers’ late-season trend lines and Swinney’s track record make them the rightful favorite, but roster attrition reduces their margin for error. Penn State’s offense has quietly raised its ceiling, and with Grunkemeyer cutting down the risky throws, they’re more likely to stick within one score. That’s why Penn State +3.5 is our favorite angle.
For pace and scoring, Clemson’s recent average of 32.4 points and Penn State’s 28.6 suggest the Over 48.5 is very live, especially given the defensive absences on both sides. And while the cover is our stronger lean, Clemson’s experience and QB stability make the Tigers a reasonable moneyline play if you’re comfortable laying the juice. In short: Tigers to win, Lions to cover, and enough fireworks to nudge this into the 50s.
